Wrath

Be sure and post your questions in the Chas's Summer Game Subform in the Games section.

Keanu Prediction: 17.3M +/- 3.3M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 9.4M (off by 7.8M, so 2.38 stndev) Just terrible. Deadline and Variety called it pretty well, but everyone else crashed like us. mahnamahna was closest as our low predict at 10M. Mother's Day Prediction: 11.4M +/- 4.19M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 8.4M (off by 3.0M, so 0.71 stndev) Not bad. Middle of the road among predicts. Arlo245 was closest at 8.5M. Ratchet and Clank Prediction: 7.7M +/- 4.9M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 4.9M (off by 2.8M, so 0.58 stndev) There is no problem that a gigantic standard deviation can't fix! Look at that, off by like 30% of our predict, yet a pretty good predict at 0.58. Go, Team Uncertainty! We were about in the middle overall. BO.com nailed it and ShowBuzzDaily was close, but we were closer than everyone else. Best predict was cannastop at 5M.

212M

NO BEING CIVIL! WAR BEGINS NOW! Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will Civil War open to more than $150m? *YES* 2) Will Civil War open to more than $175m? *YES* 3) Will Civil War open to more than $200m? 3000 *YES* 4) Will Civil War open to more than $220m? *NO* 5) Will Civil War's OW account for more than 82% of the total weekend Box office take? 2000 *NO* 6) Would Civil War's Thursday Preview total be within $5m of being enough to win the weekend on its own? *YES* 7) Will Civil War drop less than 25% on Saturday? 2000 *YES* 8) Will Civil War's Sunday make more than $50m? *YES* 8) Will Jungle Book drop more than 43% this weekend? *NO* 9) Will Huntsman finish above Keanu this weekend? 3000 *YES* 10) Will Mother's Day drop less than 57% this weekend? *YES* 11) Will Zootopia make more than $4m this weekend? *NO* 12) Will Zootopia pass Batman vs Superman's total gross by the end of the weekend? 2000 *NO* 13) Will Ratchet and Clank stay above the Boss this weekend? *NO* 14) Will at least 4 films increase over 200% on Friday? *NO* 15) Will Barbershop cross $50m by the end of Saturday? *NO* 16) Will Star Wars the force awakens increase this weekend? 2000 *YES* 17) Will hardcore Henry make less than $12,500 this weekend (getting pulled from theatres counts as a yes for this question)? *YES* 18) Will BvS have a PTA above $1,200? *NO* 19) Will Hologram for the king finish in the top 12 this weekend? 2000 *NO* 20) Will 1920 London have a PTA above $6,500? *NO* 21) Will Kung Fu Panda end the weekend in the top 25? *NO* 22) Will 3rd -8th place's weekend gross combine to be higher than Jungle Book's Weekend Gross? 2000 *NO* 23) Will Green Room Finish in the top 10? *NO* 24) Will any film in the top 20 drop more than 70%? 3000 *YES* 25) Will Civil War be universally accepted as the film to end all wars and disagreements for films ever? *Too late, its already happened* Bonuses 16/25 - 2000 17/25 - 3000 18/25 - 4000 19/25 - 5000 20/25 - 7000 21/25 - 10000 22/25 - 12000 23/25 - 15000 24/25 - 17000 25/25 - 20000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will Civil War gross opening Friday (including previews)? 83M 2. What will be the difference in total domestic gross between Civil War and Jungle Book by the end of the weekend? 78M 3. How far away from making its (BOM stated) budget will Huntsman be after this weekend? 74M 4. What will Zootopia's weekend Drop be this weekend? 37.5% 5. How many films (out of all the films that BOM gives a gross for) will drop more than 57.5% this weekend? 11 Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 3. Mother's Day 6. Zootopia 8. Boss 10. BvS 13. Green Room 17. God's Not Dead 2 Bonuses: 3/6 ~ 2000 points 4/6 ~ 5000 points 5/6 ~ 9000 points 6/6 ~ 15000 points The deadline for all this is Thursday 5th May at 11.59pm.

And so it begins (Summer, that is). Bring it. Civil War Deadline is Thursday afternoon as usual.

Not looking good.

THER'S ALWAYS TIME FOR LUBRICANT.

Was Kasbah really in the same league as Jem? That makes me sad.

And we have a new winner! Ratchet and Clank's 63.43% ratio is the highest of any movie we've ever predicted, making it our least confident predict ever. The score is thanks in part to a few (it wasn't just one) extremely optimistic (imo, anyway) predicts. We'll see how it goes. Overall, we're pretty optimistic on Keanu (2nd highest after Movieweb.com's 19.1M), just about in the middle on Mother's Day, and, hrm, I suppose slightly high on Ratchet and Clank. 4 of the 6 predictors are bunched together around 8M (and we're the lowest of those 4 at 7.7M), but then the other two predictors are much lower at 4.7M and 5.5M. So, as usual, I totaled all predicts (17 for Keanu and Mother's Day, 15 for Ratchet and Clank) and here are the results: Keanu Mean: 17.3M Median: 17M StnDev: 3.30M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.07% High: 24.7M Low: 10M BO.com 15M Deadline 10M MovieWeb 19.1M ShowBuzzDaily 15.5M Variety 11M Mother's Day Mean: 11.4M Median: 10M StnDev: 4.19M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 36.84% High: 25M Low: 7M BO.com 9.5M Deadline 12M MovieWeb 13.4M ShowBuzzDaily 10.5M Variety 12M Ratchet and Clank Mean: 7.7M Median: 6.5M StnDev: 4.9M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 63.43% High: 19M Low: 3M BO.com 4.7M Deadline 8M MovieWeb 8.2M ShowBuzzDaily 5.5M Variety 8M

Keanu: $15.5m Mother's Day: $9.5m Ratchet and Clank: $5.5m Edit - For me, looks like a weekend entirely half-full. Or half-empty.

I just don't see Angry Birds making more than $70-80M. On the other hand, pretty much everyone apparently thinks its going to do $140M so i guess I'm crazy. People do realize that Angry Birds finished being a thing years ago, don't they? Maybe not. Edit - I will say that I think Warcraft is a potential sleeper hit in China, but it doesn't do us any good here.

Hey, just look at the RT% and the bad reviews! I think its possible Huntsman earned $0 over the weekend. Oh, wait, someone actually saw it, didn't they? Yeah, its probably wrong. I'll fix it. Edit - Fixed! Thanks! It was off by 3.9M which is 0.76 standard deviations.

Woot. Actual came in at 19.445, so looks like I get the closest predict on Huntsman after all.

GAH! I AM NOT PREPARED. Edit - I am now prepared. Welt questions consist of 3 parts: mostly yes/no questions, gross predictions and placement predictions. Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will keanu open to more than $18m? *NO* 2) Will keanu open to more than $22.5m? 2000 *NO* 3) Will mothers day open to more than $10m? *NO* 4) will the 3 openers' combined OW be higher than jungle book's weekend gross? 3000 *NO* 5) Will all 3 wide openers finish in the top 5? *NO* 6) Will huntsman drop less than 47.5%? *NO* 7) Will Zootopia drop more than 20%? *NO* 8) Will BvS have a sub-$1M day this weekend? *YES* 9) Will Barbershop have a higher Saturday gross than Zootopia this weekend? 3000 *YES* 10) will miracles from heaven have a better Sunday drop than gods not dead 2? *YES* 11) Will deadpool have a better Friday percentage increase than BvS? *NO* 12) Will criminal stay above my big fat gel wedding? *YES* 13) Will allegiant stay above Cloverfield lane? *YES* 14) Will hardcore Henry make less than $100k this weekend? 2000 *YES* 15) Will any film below the top 12 last weekend, move up into the top 12 this weekend? 2000 *NO* 16) Will the boss have a PTA above $1,500? *NO* 17) Will 2 films have a Friday increase above 200%? *NO* 18) Will KFP3 have a Saturday increase over 98.5%? 3000 *YES* 19) Willthe man who knew infinity have a PTA above $5000? *YES* 20) Will the hologram for the king turn out to be a threatening message from Lord Snoke? *Sadly, no. If it was, it might have made some money* Bonuses 14/20 - 2000 15/20 - 3000 16/20 - 5000 17/20 - 7000 18/20 - 10000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will keanu gross OW? *15.5M* 2. What will Huntsman's weekend percentage drop be? 58.5% 3. What well be the difference in dollars of the total domestic grosses of BvS and zootopia after this weekend? Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. 3. Mother's Day 5. Barbershop 8. BvS 10. Criminal 13. Hologram Bonuses: 3/5 ~ 4000 points 4/5 ~ 7000 points 5/5 ~ 10000 points The deadline for all this is Thursday 28th April at 11.59pm.

Sadly, judging by the reviews and box office, Huntsman came in just exactly as awful as expected. Hopefully this week will be better. Please provide your 4/29-5/1 Opening Weekend predicts for, Keanu Mother's Day Ratchet and Clank Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it.

Kind of a quiet week, obviously, though we did fine. Huntsman: Winter's War Prediction: 23.4M +/- 5.21M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 19.5M (off by 3.9M, so 0.76 stndev) Not bad and second best overall behind BO.com's 22M. Amusingly, we need to wait for more details on closest predict, as right now, at 19.45M, cannastop and I are exactly tied, both $550K off, but in different directions. If it comes in at $19,450,001, then cannastop is closest, and at $19,449,999, then I'm closest. Since its rounding up to 19.5 instead of down to 19.4, I'm guessing cannastop will end up the winner (I'll come back and edit this when the details come in) but I'm holding out hope until then.

Seriously. Its like everyone simply forgot the second half of August existed and fought like hell to cram everything possible into July and the first half of August.

I would have argued Jai Courtney is about the closest actor I can think of with that kind of tag, but he's a scene-stealer in the Suicide Squad trailers. Could be (probably is) just the trailers, but also sometimes it takes a while to find the right role for someone. He may never be a big hit as a leading man, but as a funny, douchy, supporting actor/bro he might actually be good. Brad Pitt's kinda the same way. I mean, he's a huge star but imo he's always been better as a second-fiddle, character actor sort than as the actual leading man himself.

Elvis & Nixon is in fewer theaters than Hologram for the King, whatever that is, so its safe to say its not opening wide and is thus stricken from our prediction roster. Verily and forsooth. That leaves us with one movie. Yippee. Oh well, next week should make up for it. Its funny. Typing the predicts up, it felt like everyone was predicting 21-22M, but our Ratio of 22.22% is much higher than the ones we had for previous movies we expected to open at about the same level (Ratio and expected OW total are very much inversely related until you get to about $140-150M at which point it goes out the window). Some examples (predict, ratio): Barbershop - 19.8M/18.04% The Boss - 22.2M/23.16% Allegiant - 30.7M/14.03% 10 Cloverfield - 24.7M/14.87% (which I just saw the other day, was fun) Felt like we were going to end up with a super-tight prediction range, but didn't end up happening that way. Perhaps because of some high early predicts. Overall, the various sites' predicts for Huntsman are pretty tightly grouped (22M - 26.3M), and while we're at the lower-end of that range (only higher than BO.com) we're very much in the same range as everyone else. So, as usual, I totaled all 22 predicts (Civil War's approach, as the harbinger of the summer movie season, is bringing more predictors to the yard than Kelis's milkshake) and here are the results: Huntsman Mean: 23.4M Median: 22M StnDev: 5.21M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 22.22% High: 40M Low: 17M BO.com 22M Deadline 25M MovieWeb 26.3M ShowBuzzDaily 24M Variety 25M

So what you're saying is that you don't care enough about the summer game to spam every thread?

I care! In part *because* its going to be a disaster! Makes it all the more entertaining. Huntsman - 18.9M

Really? It was listed as "Wide" on Monday. Hrm. If its still under 600 on Thursday we'll just dump it. Thanks for pointing that out.

I'd forgotten just how fantastic some of those monsters were. The chicken with the giant pair of scissors and the gnome with the rake were probably my favorites. And, no, she looks nothing like Rita Repulsa. But she does get credit for looking hot, at least.

Why did I go 100% in on Triple 9? I knew it was going to bomb and I did it anyway. I guess it was because I had cash and I was kind of bored, but Masked Saint was a defensible decision compared to Triple 9. Edit - At the end of the game, I suspect I'll end up coming in 2nd or 4th, or whatever position just misses being on the podium. And I'll miss it by the 7.36M I lost on Triple 9.