Wrath

If everything was a breakout hit, we wouldn't appreciate the ones that actually are, so lets consider last weekend a character building experience. Now lets use that knowledge to predict the hell out of this coming weekend's fine-ish slate of movies. Please provide your 6/3-5 Opening Weekend predicts for, Me Before You Popstar TMNT 2 Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Great flick. It almost made my list.

You know what they call the person who finishes last in their class at Med School? Doctor. A win is a win, no matter how it happens.

Dude, take some ownership. Sure, but you can't assume whoever else is reading your comment in a thread has also read everything else you've read. You're the one making the post and the argument. If someone else made a compelling argument elsewhere and it convinced you, then put in that argument to convince whoever you're talking to in the next thread. Even if you simply saw the number, exercised zero thought, and then regurgitated it into another thread, you're still the one who wrote the post. Claiming that you post stuff purely because someone else in some other place posted it and therefore is somehow unconnected to you is a terrible argument for two reasons. First, its just wrong seeing as how you're the one who typed the post. And second, it makes you look like you don't have two brain cells to rub together. Unless you've done a good job of being especially witty or funny or something, you're basically telling people they should just ignore whatever you post and move on.

Ouch, terrible, though expected. I PM'ed my guesses, and then went back and looked and realized I'd typed in the wrong number for Alice on question 1. Meant to type 45.5 and instead typed 50.5. Kinda figured that'd be the end of my run, but I've been bailed out.

I'll do 100% of X-Men Also, can I do 100% of Love and Friendship? It already opened, but isn't wide.

Deadline's predict on X-Men basically boiled down to "somewhere between 80-110M" which doesn't quite get it done as a predict so its excluded. We're pretty optimistic, coming in as the highest predict for both movies. Also, as a reminder, our prediction numbers are now the median result, rather than the mean result, of everyone's picks and revised StnDev is the standard deviation of the predictions, including the other web-sites. Also, these are all 4-day predicts. As usual, I totaled all predicts (22 for Alice 2, 23 for X-Men) and here are the results: Alice 2 Mean: 65.5M Median: 65M StnDev: 7.27M (revised StnDev: 7.02M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 11.18% High: 81.6M Low: 48M BO.com 61M Deadline 58M MovieWeb 56.2M ShowBuzzDaily 61.7M Variety 60M X-Men: Apocalypse Mean: 88.8M Median: 88M StnDev: 10.92M (revised StnDev: 10.33) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 12.41% High: 115M Low: 65M BO.com 82M Deadline MovieWeb 81.5M ShowBuzzDaily 85.2M Variety 81M

Alice 2 - 55M X-Men: Apocalypse - 86M

I'm in Group G now? What madness is this?!?! Group H 4 LYFE!

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will Xmen make more than $67.5m this weekend? *NO* 2) Will Xmen make more than $80m this weekend? 2000 *NO* 3) Will Xmen make above $92.5m this weekend? *NO* 4) Will Alice make more than $47.5m this weekend? *NO* 5) Will Alice make more than $60m this weekend? *NO* 6) Will Alice make more than $72.5m this weekend? *NO* 7) Will Alice make at least 70% of the gross of Xmen this weekend? 3000 *YES* 8) Will Angry Birds stay above $20m? *NO* 9) Will Nice Guys' total gross pass Keanu's total gross by the end of the weekend? 2000 *YES* 10) Will Jungle Book drop more than 40%? *YES* 11) WillCivil War's PTA stay above $4,500? *YES* 12) Will The Darkness drop more than Ratchett and Clank? *NO* 13) Will Neighbours remain within $7.5m of Civil War this weekend? 3000 *NO* 14) Will the two main new entries combine to more than $150m? *NO* 15) Will Money Maker drop less than 37% on Sunday? 2000 *YES* 16) Will The Wailing have a PTA above $6000? *YES* 17) Will Zootopia stay in the top 9? *NO* 18) Will The Huntsman have a PTA above $650? *YES* 19) Will Mother's Day stay above Barbershop? 3000 *NO* 20) Will the World End by Saturday? *I was told it was already done* Bonuses 15/20 - 2000 16/20 - 4000 17/20 - 6000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will be the gross of Alice be as a percentage of Xmen's? *75%* 2. What will The Boss make on Sunday? *97k* 3. What will Civil War's World Wide total be by the end of the weekend? 1.14B Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 6. Jungle Book 9. Love and Friendship 11. Zootopia 14. The Lobster 16. Man who Knew Infinity 19. Keanu Bonuses: 3/6 ~ 2000 points 4/6 ~ 5000 points 5/6 ~ 9000 points 6/6 ~ 15000 points

Yeah, I'm already regretting hanging onto the Week 0 points and not adjusting my top 15.

But some things never change. Like Group H pwnage!

TMNT2 - 70% Independence Day 2 - 100%

Nah. Nm.

Angry Birds Prediction: 40.6M +/- 4.41M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 38.2M (off by 2.4M, so 0.55 stndev) Pretty good in a vacuum, but everyone else called it even better. Arlborn was out best predict, hitting it perfectly at 38.2M. Neighbors 2 Prediction: 31.0M +/- 8.14M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 21.8M (off by 9.2M, so 1.13 stndev) Not a good predict overall, but we were the best by a significant margin which is nice. Blankments was our best predict at 22.1M. Nice Guys Prediction: 17.7M +/- 2.61M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 11.2M (off by 6.5M, so 2.5 stndev) Ow. We were way too optimistic and had the worst predict. Variety and Deadline actually came in too LOW though they were off by less than us. Impact was our best predict at 14M. Going forward, and I'll mention this again in other places, our "formal" prediction is going to switch. Historically we've always gone with our mean predict, but starting this week (I mean Alice 2 week, not Angry Birds week) we're going to start using our median predict as our formal number. Obviously I'll keep tracking both, but over almost a year of data our median has been consistently more accurate than our mean and, all things being equal, we'd rather make good predicts than bad ones.

Heh, I'm *still* the highest Investment %, though its nice to be under 300% finally. Now to find some movies that don't suck...

I'd hoped for better for Everybody Wants Some, though I'll admit much of the fun was just poking at the edges of the rules.

Apocalypse Now has always been blah to me as well. I don't hate it, and I understand why other people love it, but I don't. But, for me, 2001 is different. 2001 I actively dislike and I'll bring that up when it eventually shows up on the list.

Its funny how people's opinions differ. I think The Incredibles is a work of genius, but I found Wall-E overlong and dull, and didn't even have it in my top 100.

I'd agree. Hey, I grew up in Sacramento. Went to Rio Americano HS. Not there anymore, though.

Oh, right, Memorial Day. Get your white shoes ready. Hmm, going to look up how I've done these mid-tier holidays in the past with regard to 3-day vs 4-day. Edit - 4-day predicts, please. Obviously making 3-day predicts as well is fine, just please be sure to make 4-day predicts.

And we're now fully into the summer. Please keep your seatbelts fastened and your arms and legs inside the forum at all times, until the summer comes to a complete stop in mid-August. Please provide your 5/20-22 Opening Weekend *4-day* predicts for, Alice 2 X-Men: Apocalypse Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Group H, represent!

Hopefully I'm lucky on this SotM, because I have a bad feeling about my top 15.

Hopefully I'm lucky on this SotM, because I have a bad feeling about my top 15.