Wrath

Ok, remember how I said last week to just end it right there? I was totally wrong about that. But it *would* be cool if you could end it right NOW.

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.

Also, for fun, here's a top 5 tally of who's been closest the most. 1. Talismanring 10 2. Maxmoser3 8 3. Ethan Hunt 7 4(tie). Panamovie 6 4(tie). WrathofHan 6

Remember, these were all 4-day predicts. This might have been our worst weekend of predicting, ever, though pretty much everyone did god-awful. On the bright side, despite it being our very worst predict, ever (narrowly beating The Visit), we still managed to be the second best predict on Deadpool. Deadpool Prediction: 75.0M +/- 14.82M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 152.2M (off by 77.2M, so 5.21 stndev) That's just terrible, and the only reason it was that "low" was because we had an unusually high ratio for a movie expected to open decently. On the bright side, as I noted we were the second best predict, and even the best predict still underestimated Deadpool's 4-day by a mere 59.8M. Sometimes you just have to take it in the shorts and move on. Our high predict of 102M by mahnamahna was the closest. How to be Single Prediction: 25.3M +/- 3.76M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 19.9M (off by 5.4M, so 1.42 stndev) We predicted poorly, and while it was objectively our "best" predict of the week, everyone else was surprisingly close on this one while we went high. Best predict was Maxmoser3 with our low predict at 20M. Zoolander 2 Prediction: 26.7M +/- 5.38M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 15.9M (off by 10.8M, so 2.01 stndev) Again a bad predict, and while we were the worst, everyone else was off by a lot, too. Best predict was our low predict, this time by WrathofHan at 19M.

True, but Zootopia will be opening by then making things a little less stark.

Wrathette #1 reported that, yes, she was mildly traumatized, but the movie was so awesome it was worth the future therapy bills.

As long as you go with a parent its fine. Wrathette #1 is 12 and we saw it together on Thursday. No one batted an eye.

$38M, I think. Edit - Also worth noting is that Simionski is currently 3rd in revenue despite having had 0% of Deadpool.

Pfff. Your worst case scenario is 2nd! That's not bad at all. Whereas if I lose to Bozly I'm out of the money in 4th! I'm honestly still shocked I wasn't knocked out in the first round.

Eh, maybe. I've already spent a bunch, though, so even if I do have the money it'll take almost everything I have. And then if it and Zootopia come in below expectations, and folks who avoid it use their money to pick up little, profitable pics like Cloverfield and The Witch and the like, you could catch up by the end of March.

Race 8.9M Risen 12.2M The Witch 10.7M

I think you're really underestimating me and lucasbenica's chances of screwing this up.

I'll take: 60% of Risen (giving me 100%) and 20% of Eddie the Eagle (Mrs Wrath tells me its going to be huge. We'll see.)

I'll take the last 80% of Zootopia (giving me 95%).

Shouldn't actuals be showing up by now? Or are they buried like 15 pages ago and I have to wade in and find them?

The final week. The rules continue to not change... 1. Will Deadpool make at least $55M this weekend? *YES* 2. Will Deadpool make at least $65M this weekend? 3000 *YES* 3. Will Deadpool make at least $75M this weekend? *NO* 4. Will Deadpool increase more than 43% on Saturday? *NO* 5. Will Zoolander drop more than 60% this weekend? *NO* 6. Will How to be Single be in the top 5 this weekend? 2000 *YES* 7. What will be the highest grossing new entry this weekend? *Risen* 8. Will Race make more than $10M this weekend? *NO* 9. Will race make more than $12.5M this weekend? 3000 *NO* 10. Will The Witch make more than $8M OW? *YES* 11. Will The Witch make more than $12M OW? *NO* 12. Will the witch make more than 37.5% of its total gross on Friday? 2000 *YES* 13. How many new openers will finish ahead of Kung Fu Panda? *0* 14. Name any film that drops less than 32% this weekend. (Choose ONE film only, or choose NONE) 2000 *Force Awakens* 15. Will Star Wars make more than $1M every day of the weekend? *YES* 16. Will hail Caesar finish above the Choice this weekend? 3000 *YES* 17. Will Pride and Prejudice finish above Dirty Grandpa? *NO* 18. Will Fifty Shades of Black drop below Alvin and The Chipmunks this weekend? *YES* 19. Will Busko Novio Para Mi Merjer make more than $350k this weekend? *YES* 20. Will Neerja have a PTA above $3,200? *NO* 21. Will The Revenant cross $164M by the end of the weekend? 3000 *YES* 22. Will 13 Hours' PTA stay above $1,000 this weekend? *YES* 23. Will any film increase more than 135% this Friday? 2000 *YES* 24. Will How to be Single make its budget ($38M) back by the end of the weekend? *NO* 25. Will the Choice remain in the top 10? *NO* 26. Will the top 5's combined gross exceed $100M? 2000 *YES* 27. Will Deadpool cross $475M WW by Sunday's end? *YES* 28. Will Zoolander cross $47.5M Worldwide by Sunday's end? *NO* 29. Were you expecting the silly automatic points scoring question to be number 30? 3000 *Not after the stunt you pulled with the SotM* 30. Can I expect you back to play again in the summertime ? *Wrath gonna give it to ya* 21/30 - 2000 22/30 - 4000 23/30 - 6000 24/30 - 8000 25/30 - 10000 26/30 - 12000 27/30 - 15000 28/30 - 17000 29/30 - 20000 30/30 - 25000 Part 2: 1. What will Deadpool's total be by the end of the weekend? 5000 248.9M 2. What will be the difference between Titanic and Star Wars' WW gross by the end of the weekend? 5000 149M 3. What will Zoolander's percentage drop be this weekend? 5000 57% 4. How many films will make more than 500k this weekend? 5000 22 5. What will the 3 main openers' combined Saturday gross be? 5000 11.3M 6. What will Ride Along gross on Sunday? 5000 875K 7. What will Embrace of the Serpent's total gross be by the end of the weekend? 5000 39K Part 3 2. KFP3 4. Race 6. Witch 9. Star Wars 12. Ride Along 2 15. 5th Wave 18. Big Short 20. Spotlight

Lol. I was like: BUT I WAS TOLD IT WAS DONE! "I WAS TOLD THERE WOULD BE NO MATH ON THIS EXAM!" Edit - I totally misremembered the quote, so I fixed it.

Also, for extra spiciness, this week I'm going to start tweeting our predicts (Mean + StnDev) from the name BOTFPredictor and yes, I've talked to the powers that be and they've given it their approval (to be completely honest, they gave their approval a while ago, I've just been slow). The account has zero followers atm, but we'll work on that.

Actuals aren't in for last weekend yet, so who knows? Maybe Deadpool will end up having been massively over-estimated and in come in at like $68M or something. But assuming that's not the case, that was one of the most exciting weekends in almost 2 months! Ok, that's underselling the excitement since Deadpool had the bad luck to open just a couple months after TFA. One could make an argument that Deadpool's OW was actually more exciting than TFA's since it was so incredibly unexpected but I think you have stick with the massive awesomeness TFA. Anyway, it was a cool weekend, unless you're Ben Stiller, then it kind of sucked. Hopefully he caught Deadpool and it took his mind off Zoolander 2 for a couple hours. Please provide your 2/19-21 Opening Weekend predicts for, Race Risen The Witch Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

Avengers is surprisingly faithful to Avengers comic #1. The specifics are different (Cap hadnt been found yet, I dont think Black Widow existed yet, and Hawkeye was still a villain, but you ad Ant-Man and Wasp in roughly the same roles) but the basic plot points are the same (Loki trying to invade Earth, tricks Thor and Hulk into fighting, heroes get padt initial mistrust to team up and beat Loki).

Well, unless the numbers really change from the estimates I think Im toast. KFP3, sub 10% decline will finish me off.

What? You've been expecting 90-100M 3-day for this for weeks? Really? C'mon. You can't not post predicts anywhere or enter predicts on the Derby and make claims like that. Not here, of all places.

I think RTH mentioned Norm would probably come in somewhere in the $8-16 range, depending on whether or not you're personally going to go see it in addition to the guy in Cleveland.

TFA opening wasn't far off that here. Its like the universal fanboy/fangirl signal went out, summoning every single one in full regalia. There were obviously a bunch of Star Wars fans (including Wrathette #1 and her BFF), but there were also Trekkies, Bronies (though one or two might have been furries. The costumes were a little indistinct), witches and other folks I couldn't identify. It was a blast.

That was the amazing thing about the movie, virtually every single line was clever either in that it was funny on its own or it was a reference to something else in the movie or a meta reference about superhero movie or Ryan Renolds' career or something. It moved fast and was fun, but something it shared with GotG is that both were startlingly dense in the volume of stuff they were trying to get across. It was fun, but you knew you were missing bits and that made it rewatchable. The 4th time I saw GotG I was *still* spotting new details and I think Deadpool will be the same. With the R and slightly less GA friendly content I dont think it'll do as well as GotG, but I think 220-240M is entirely possible and coukd even be low. And theres so much that everyone can have their own favorite parts. "Its the T-Rex, king of the dinosaurs!" I just couldnt stop laughing at that whole sequence.