Wrath

Why do you think I had kids in the first place? Seriously, though, having a slightly older kid saved my bacon last night. Had tickets, but my buddy bailed and no one else was available on short notice. Wrathette #1 (she's 12) said she wanted to go and her homework was done early enough, so Mrs Wrath gave her approval without really have a clear idea of how adult-themed the movie was going to be. If she'd said "no", then I could have gone anyway, but there would have been all kinds of subtle guilt that I generally don't like dealing with. So it worked out nicely. Wrathette #1 said afterwards that she thought the movie was hilarious and awesome, though I suspect she would have preferred not to see the sex/nude scenes at all, but failing that she *really* would have preferred to see them with, say her friends, rather than her dad. But you have to take what you can get, and she got to be the youngest person in that movie theater by about 5 years. She said she might have been slightly traumatized, but it was worth it. Plus, I think most of the sex jokes just went over her head anyway.

Yeah. The first one had an old-school roll-out that you just don't see anymore, and in fact I think was long gone by 2002 except for this one throwback. The numbers around it have all kinds of strange tidbits. Its theater count peaked during weekend #29 but it didn't break 1,000 theaters initially until weekend #18 and stayed above it for 17 weeks, finally dropping under 1,000 on weekend #35. But then on weekend #38 it re-expanded back above 1,000 theaters and stayed there for another 6 weeks before falling below again, this time for good. Also, its per-theater average was amazingly consistent. Its per theater average bounced between $3,700 and $5,500 until weekend 20 at which point it finally jumped above $6,000. It stayed above $6,000 for 3 weekends, and then finally started slowly trending down though it didn't finally get under $3,000 until weekend 29. It posted weekend to weekend per theater average increases *18* times during its run. I think you could argue it had the weirdest box office run of the last 30 years.

Maybe! Usually there's some kind of official update around 11 pm and sometimes another one around 1 or 2 am (EST). Also, there are forum folks who have access to industry data unavailable to most mortals that's typically much more reliable than the "official" updates. Sometimes they show up to share tidbits and sometimes they don't.

Really? A movie with a $5m budget that's the sequel to a movie that that made $80M is a blockbuster? Yes, its getting some advertising, but its still kind of the opposite of a blockbuster. Really what it is is a movie that everyone expects to be super profitable relative to its production cost. That's not a blockbuster.

This list reminds me, have you seen the review of Super Man 3 that tries to argue that its actually a great movie? Its amusing and the guys writing it come up with a few decent points. I'll find the link for it. http://comicsalliance.com/comicsalliance-reviews-superman-iii-1983-part-one/

Well, ballpark, I'd guess you'll be ~35% ahead of me after the 3 new openers. On the holdovers, you mostly went high and I went low. We'll see if I can make it up there.

Wow. I think its fair to say we all underestimated Deadpool.

Turns out, today *wasn't* a good day to die. For Deadpool, anyway. You're toast on the other two, though.

Ah, I see. Well, the good news is that this has been going on for a decade or so now. It'll probably still be here when you've got some time again. Or, just do the pre-seasons and don't bother with the weeklies.

You know that the gap between the games is like half as long as tge games are, right? You dont have to miss it for that long.

Well, at least someone's copying their way to victory. Heh, not really, I see changed answers. Definitely the right move.

Abstain for all. For now.

1. Will Deadpool make over 40M OW? *YES* 2. Will Deadpool make over 55M OW? 3000 *YES* 3. Will Deadpool make over 75M OW? *NO* 4. Will Deadpool make over 10M from Previews/Midnights? *NO* 5. Will Zoolander 2 make mare than 17.5M OW? *YES* 6. Will Zoolander 2 make more than 25M OW? 2000 *NO* 7. Will how to be single make more than 15M OW? *YES* 8. Will the top 3 new openers combine to more than 110M OW? 3000 *NO* 9. Will pride, prejudice and zombies finish in the top 10? *YES* 10. Will the Revenant finish ahead of Star Wars? *NO* 11. Will 13 hours cross $50M by the end of the weekend? *YES* 12. Will any film have a sub 100% increase on Friday? 2000 *YES* 13. Will The Boy have a better PTA than Dirty Grandpa? *YES* 14. Will Kung Fu Panda's total gross overtake sisters' by the end of Saturday? 2000 *NO* 15. Will Fifty Shades drop more than 59%? *YES* 16. Will Deadpool increase by at least 47.7% on Saturday? 3000 *NO* 17. Will any film increase by over 300% on Friday? *NO* 18. Will Star Wars Drop less than 42%? *YES* 19. Will Deadpool gross more than 2nd-5th combined? *YES* 20. Will the Finest Hours stay ahead of Ride Along 2? *NO* 21. How many films will make more than $15M this weekend? 2000 *3* 22. Will Zoolander 2 have the best Sunday drop of the 3 main new openers? *NO* 23. Will Valentines Day's total gross for every film in cinemas exceed $75M? 3000 *NO* 24. Will Deadpool break the February OW record? *NO* 25. Who is gonna give it to ya? *Me, because I'm a thoughtful and considerate person* 15/25 2000 16/25 3000 17/25 4000 18/25 6000 19/25 8000 20/25 10000 21/25 12000 22/25 14000 23/25 16000 24/25 18000 25/25 20000 Part 2. 1. What will Deadpool Gross OW? 5000 66.3M 2. What will Zoolander's Friday gross be? 5000 8.6M 3. What will How to be single's Valentines Day gross be? 5000 6.5M 4. What will Kung Fu panda's gross be by the end of the weekend? 5000 86.43M 5. What will be the difference between Dirty Grandpa and The Boy's weekend gross? 5000 68K 6. What will Star Wars' Sunday gross be? 5000 996K Part 3. 2. Zoolander 2 5. Hail, Caesar 7. Revenant 10. Ride Along 2 12. The Boy 15. 13

I think they'd be ok with missing it.

Could we just end it now? This is by far my best performance in one of these things, and I'm reminded of the last winter game in which I managed to drop from like 9th after the final set of weeklies to 21st on the "strength" of my top 15/10/etc predictions.

This is just BS. How am I supposed to copy my way to victory when so few other people can post answers? Then again, since the only other person in the top 15 or so who's even close to as low on these as me is Grey Ghost, and he's only that low because he missed 3 more weeks than I did, maybe I need to get better at copying people. 1. Will Zoolander and Deadpool combine to more than 70M? *YES* 2. Will Zoolander and Deadpool combine to more than 90M? 2000 *NO* 3. Will Revenant finish within $7.5M of Kung Fu Panda? *NO* 4. Will The Boy finish ahead of the 5th Wave? *YES* 5. Will The Choice drop more than 49%? *YES* 6. Will fifty Shades stay ahead of Daddy's Home? *NO* 7. Will the 3 new entries open in the top 3 positions? *YES* 8. Will how to be single increase more than 25% on Saturday? *NO* 9. Will Star Wars cross 910M by the end of Saturday? *YES* 10. Will the top 10 films all make at least $2.8M? 2000 *YES* 11. Will Hail Caesar have a better weekend drop than The Finest Hours? *YES* 12. Will Ride Along 2's total gross overtake Alvin's by the end of the weekend? *NO* 13. Will Dirty Grandpa increase by at least 145% on Friday? 2000 *YES* 14. Will KFP3's PTA stay above $3250? *YES* 15. Is Benedict Cumberbatch a man or a woman? *Don't be constrained by the tyranny of the "or".* 11/15 2000 12/15 3000 13/15 4000 14/15 6000 15/15 8000 No Part 2 folks sorry Part 3. 3. How to be Single 6. Star Wars 9. PPZ 11. Finest Hours 14. 5th Wave

BO.com predicts 93M for Deadpool, 4-day, while Deadline says 62.5M and MovieWeb says 58M. That makes for a much more interesting weekend than the "everything's about 10M" stuff we've had for the last few weeks. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm quivering with excitement. Or maybe that's because I'm seeing Deadpool tonight and I can't wait. Or maybe its because I'm taking Wrathette #1 to see it with me and Mrs Wrath approved it despite not being entirely clear on how non-child friendly Deadpool is likely to be. Eh, Wrathette #1 watches The Walking Dead when she thinks we're not looking, and her sense of humor matches up with this perfectly. I think she might be slightly traumatized, but it'll be worthwhile because she'll love it and if Mrs Wrath was going to divorce me over something like this, we'd have parted ways years ago. At first I thought our predicts were really optimistic, but that was before I wrote down everyone else's and now I just think we're kinda optimistic. We're the highest for How to be Single and Zoolander 2 (and with a really small ratio for How to be Single, which is historically really bad), but not by a ton. So we're optimistic, but not wildly so. We're the second highest on Deadpool, but we're *18M* lower than BO.com, so other folks are even crazier than we are. Speaking of predictors, naturally just as I add ShowBuzzDaily.com to the permanent roster, it produces only 3-day predicts so it doesn't give me anything useable. Misc, this week, is MovieWeb.com which to its credit didn't appear to just copy anyone else for its predicts. As usual, I went through the various predicts (10 for everything) and here's what we ended up with: Deadpool Mean: 75M Median: 69M StnDev: 14.82M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.76% High: 102M Low: 56M BO.com 93M Deadline 62.5M Misc 58M Variety 70M How to be Single Mean: 25.3M Median: 25M StnDev: 3.76M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.88% High: 33M Low: 20M BO.com 19M Deadline 23M Misc 20M Variety 20M Zoolander 2 Mean: 26.7M Median: 26.0M StnDev: 5.38M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.13% High: 36M Low: 19M BO.com 22M Deadline 23M Misc 25M Variety 23M

Well, this weekend is a good weekend to die, but I admire your faith. Sadly, I forgot again. Numbers will be up shortly.

Not a bad week. Our worst miss was the one where we had the best overall predict and the other two at least weren't terrible. The Choice Prediction: 9.6M +/- 3.6M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 6.0M (off by 3.6M, so 1.07 stndev) Eh, not terrible. Sadly we were the worst predict as most folks nailed it, but in a vacuum we were ok. CJohn just *barely* squeezes out the top spot at 6.6M, narrowly beating BourneFan#1 who predicted 5.4 (unrounded actual was 6.05M). Hail, Caesar! Prediction: 13.5M +/- 3.15M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 11.4M (off by 2.1M, so 0.68 stndev) Not a bad predict. Not great, but not bad either. Sadly, we were the worst predict, but just by a hair over a multiple other folks. Best predict was CJohn, and this time it wasn't particularly close, at 11.2M. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies Prediction: 9.6M +/- 1.80M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 5.3M (off by 4.3M, so 2.41 stndev) Ugh, argh. A really terrible predict. So naturally it was by far the best predict of the lot. Yes, really. BO.com thought it would come in at 12M. We failed much less hard than everyone else, so I'm call it a win. Best predict was our lowest predict at 6.8 by CJohn, giving him a sweep of the week. Nicely done.

Eh, 13 is still $8M behind Joy with 14 days to go (according to BOmojo), it only made $4.8M over the last 7 days, and Joy is still making a little bit of money. 13 needs 10% drops or better for both weekends and weekdays the rest of the way. That seems really unlikely. 1%, maybe? I agree that The Boy could still catch Dirty Grandpa, though, its only 2.5M behind. Both have really been holding well so far, but if Deadpool suddenly decides to eat Dirty Grandpa's lunch, The Boy could easily catch up. Dirty Grandpa will still *probably* win this, but its probably only 70% likely.

Wow, apparently its possible to completely crash on part 1 yet still do ok. I think my part 3 score this week is higher than my part 3 scores from every other week of this competition, added together.

So, 1st and 2nd are pretty easy but how is 3rd vs 4th established? Higher score in the round they were knocked out?

Go team!

Huh, that's astounding. The question I thought was too squirrely to touch with a 10' pole (the only realistic way to do well was to earnestly attempt to get them all wrong and then resoundingly fail at it) was the one SOTM question where *everyone* got a positive score. I'm boggled. Hmm, not sure exactly what happened here with the formatting.

Turns out I was wrong, it won't be an interesting race. Among those 3, Alvin is going to run away with it and could actually threaten Daddy's Home for 7th place.