Wrath

Getting harder to find timely predictions by other sites as ScreenRant failed to post anything, and after a few weeks of consistent predicting, EntertainmentWeekly has failed to post anything for a few weeks in a row. As a result, I've decided to replace EntertainmentWeekly with "Misc" which is basically whoever else I can find who published predictions by Thursday morning. This week, its TheWrap who predicted 10M for all 3. This week, all the predictors seem to have thrown their hands up and said "about 10 for everything" and we actually have the most variety between our predicts for the 3 of anyone. I suppose we're being modestly optimistic on 5th Wave and Dirty Grandpa, though we're just barely the highest predict for 5th Wave and not at all for Dirty Grandpa, and mildly pessimistic for The Boy, but everyone's predicts are in a pretty tight grouping this week. I will say that I'm surprised at how small our ratio (the stndev of our predictions divided by the mean of our predictions) is for Dirty Grandpa and especially The Boy. Usually confidence as a % of the average predict goes *down* as the mean goes down, and 22.79% is really low for a predict under 10M. But with all the other predictors guessing a pretty tight range as well, I suppose its not unreasonable. As usual, I went through the various predicts (15 for everything) and here's what we ended up with: 5th Wave Mean: 12.3M Median: 12.8M StnDev: 4.23M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 34.35% High: 20.3M Low: 5M BO.com 10.7M Deadline 10M ScreenRant.com Variety 12M Misc 10M The Boy Mean: 8.4M Median: 9M StnDev: 1.91M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 22.79% High: 12M Low: 4M BO.com 11.8M Deadline 10M ScreenRant.com Variety 10M Misc 10M Dirty Grandpa Mean: 13.6M Median: 13M StnDev: 2.93M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.47% High: 20.5M Low: 9M BO.com 10.8M Deadline 14M ScreenRant.com Variety 11M Misc 10M

Split the difference. 9.

Yeah, but that really broke out. Banking on that seems a little optimistic. I'll go to 8, but thats it.

All 4-day. We went high on all 3, and were disappointed on all 3. 13 Hours and Norm were unfortunately both fairly bad, and while our Ride Along 2 predict wasn't actually bad in and of itself, everyone else except Deadline nailed it. 13 Hours Prediction: 32.2M +/- 19.22M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 19.2M (off by 13.0M, so 1.57 stndev) Best predict was our low predict by TalismanRing at 25.5M. Norm of the North Prediction: 14.2M +/- 3.12M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 9.4M (off by 4.8M, so 1.54 stndev) Best predict was again our low predict, and again by TalismanRing, at 10.1M. Ride Along 2 Prediction: 44.4M +/- 6.00M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 41.0M (off by 3.4M, so 0.57 stndev) Best predict was, shockingly, neither our low predict nor by TalismanRing! Instead it was by me at 42.5M

5th Wave 12.8 Boy 7.7 Dirty Grandpa 10.5

I'll buy up to 100% of The Witch for $7M, so double what you paid for it.

Actuals for last weekend will be up when we have actuals from last weekend. Heh. Probably early this afternoon. Should be another interesting weekend. I think it'll take a while before we stop being spoiled by TFA. I'm going to guess that Deadpool addresses that. Please provide your 1/22 - 24 Opening Weekend, 5th Wave Boy Dirty Grandpa Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

nuts

Good. I'm counting on you being rusty next week.

Big week for movie marketing craftiness.

And this is why this question freaked me out back when it first came out. Is having a single SotM that can result in people being up or down 200k points a good idea? Scoring it was *fun* but I'm still not sure if it was a good idea or not.

Yep. I bet Carol missing pic cost players, in total, 500k points and that might be low. Peanuts and Good Dino getting shut out was probably another 300+K.

42k you guessed best pic and... Actress, I think. But it didnt win pic, so you lost (5+4) * 3 +15= 42

This is the last place I'd expect to be judged! The score and I were both consenting. What exactly we did should remain private...

You're also right on MovieMan89 (-11k), I missed him having Best Supporting Actress as well on Carol.

You're right on Tele. He's -5k, not whatever I had. I did something wrong with his Spotlight score.

Ah, I see. I missed Best Director for Spotlight for misfeco, that's the difference.

We're feeling optimistic these days, as our lowest 13 Hours and Norm predicts are higher than anyone else's predicts for both movies. Ride Along 2, we're more in the middle. Hopefully its a good week! As usual, I went through the various predicts (11 for everything) and here's what we ended up with: 13 Hours Mean: 32.2M Median: 30M StnDev: 8.26M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 25.66% High: 55M Low: 25.5M BO.com 25M Deadline 21M ScreenRant.com 25M Variety 20M Entertainment Weekly 20M Norm of the North Mean: 14.2M Median: 15M StnDev: 3.12M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.94% High: 18.1M Low: 10.1M BO.com 10M Deadline 5M ScreenRant.com 10M Variety 5M Entertainment Weekly 6M Ride Along 2 Mean: 44.4M Median: 46M StnDev: 6.00M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 13.5% High: 51.8M Low: 35.9M BO.com 41M Deadline 50M ScreenRant.com 41M Variety 40M Entertainment Weekly 40M

Oh, I just realized something: https://www.dropbox.com/s/00r9107re3tu2nn/score.xlsx?dl=0 Here's my spreadsheet.

We're actually pretty close on most of them, now that I'm looking in more detail. I'm pretty sure I'm at 44k. How did you get such a big minus for DAJK? I didn't include Big Short for DAJK because it wasn't really clearly listed as a answer. Edit - Hmm, actually we've got a bunch of little differences. Nuts.

Ok, I found a couple things. I should indeed have had you as at 110k. I had two copy-paste errors on yours, I left our Bridge entirely and I had you down as Pic, Dir, Orig Scree for both Spotlight and Trumbo when it should have been just Spotlight. Yeah, I did take out Martian and Steve Jobs, but everything else seemed ok (Crimson Peak and Heart of the Sea).

Biggest swings either way were Carol, where at least a couple people went -72k, and Spotlight, where a few people went +60k. I'm still not sure if I could say whether going specific or general was the better strategy. Going specific was certainly the higher risk strategy. darkelf, who won, only went specific on about half his guesses, glassfairy and bcf26 who came in 2nd and 3rd went specific on *all* their guesses but they both had very short lists. WrathofHan went specific on half his guesses and I went short on just 1 and it cost me (Peanuts. Boo). On the other hand, all the big minus scores were people who went specific on everything.

Hmm. We have a lot of differences. Lets look at a simple one: ThatOneGuy. I have him at 36k, you have him at 24k. I have him down as picking: Brooklyn Carol Creed Danish Girl Good Dinosaur Peanuts Room Spotlight No specific category picks. Movies were worth: Brooklyn 11 (pic, Actress, Adap Screenplay) Carol 11 (Actress, Sup Actress, Adap Screenplay, Score, Cinematograph) Creed 3 (Sup Actor) Danish Girl 7 (Actor, Sup Actress) Good Dinosaur -15 (not nominated) Peanuts -15 (not nominated) Room 16 (Pic, Actress, Director, Adap Screenplay) Spotlight 18 (Pic, Sup Actress, Sup Actor, Director, Original Screenplay) The positives add up to 66, minus 30 for the animated ones and we're at 36k. What's different about our math?

Hah, me too. I found it a bit complicated especially at first, but once I got rolling it wasn't so bad. Still, probably a good idea to compare our scores to be safe. I dinged Exxdee for it since its a different category. I figured it was comparable to Actress/Supporting Actress. There were folks for whom Carol not getting nominated for Best Pic, by itself, was a ~100k swing. Its kind of astonishing that folks ended up as close together as we did. Mostly. Ok, I got: darkelf 113k glassfairy 87k bcf26 47k WrathofHan 44k Wrath 44k sakskidz 37k DAJK 36k ThatOneGuy 36k Exxdee 20k JJ-8 19k Filmovie 18k Grey Ghost 14k Blanks 9k MovieMan -2k Chasmmi -3k misafeco -40k Infernus -44k Tele -59k Kayumanggi -105k MikeKaye42 -230k

Oscar Nominations are up, I'm going to take a stab at scoring SOTM 6. Edit - Carol not getting nominated for Best Pic is spreading immense pain. Edit2 - Danish Girl not getting nominated for Makeup is hurting, too. Some people are getting huge points on Spotlight, though. Edit3 - Peanuts and Good Dino both being shut out might have actually cost more total points than even Carol did.