Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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15/15! Damn, has that ever happened before?
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Ooh, looks like I've been having a nice preseason. Maybe I should have participated in the rest of the game 😅
Also, just realized Anabelle beat Yesterday on the last weekend with that all too innocent jump. Sucks for me 😕
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Damn, haven't been getting any time at all for the game this year... Probably gonna be the worst ever performance by a defending champion 😅. Also, fuck me for the hurried last minute Pre-seasons. I was elated to see my high hopes from Aladdin were coming through only to realize I forgot to put it in my Top 7 OW despite predicting 300m Dom 😣
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1. Avengers, Lion King, and Pikachu's combined OW will be:
A. Less than $550M
B. Between $550M and $650M
C. Over $650M
2. Godzilla 2's China Box office will be:
A. Less than $100M
B. Between $100M and $150M
C. Over $150M
3. Avengers' Total admissions in South Korea will be:
A. Less than 8.5M
B. Between 8.5M and 10M
C. Over 10M
4. Secret Life of Pets 2's UK gross will be:
Abstain
5. The film with the best mulitplier will be:
A. Lion King
B. Aladdin
C. Toy Story 4
6. Avengers' number of weekends in the domestics top 5 + Lion King's number of weekends in the domestics top 5 + Toy Story's number of weekends in the domestics top 5 will be:
Abstain
7. Toy Story 4's Domestic Gross divided by Child's Play and Annabelle's combined Domestic Gross will be:
Abstain
8. Hobbs and Shaw's Overseas (excluding Domestic) Box office will be:
Abstain
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Full 20,000 - Spiderman Far From Home
Full 10,000 - Aladdin
Full 10,000 - SLOP2
Full 4000 - John Wick
Full 4000 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Full 2000- Yesterday
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20m - The Secret Life of Pets 2 - Australia
40m - Endgame - Russia
60m - Endgame - India
80m - Toy Story 4 - Japan
100m - Endgame - UK
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A: Domestic top 15:
1) Avengers: Endgame – $750m
2) The Lion King – $600m
3) Spider-Man: Far from Home – $360m
4) Toy Story 4 – $360m
5) Aladdin - $300m
6) The Secret Life of Pets 2 – 260m
7) Detective Pikachu - $250m
8) Godzilla: King of the Monsters - $250m
9) Hobbs & Shaw – $160m
10) X-Men: Dark Phoenix – $150m
11) Men in Black International – $150m
12) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – $135m
13) John Wick: Chapter 3 – $120m
14) Yesterday $80m
15) IT Chapter 2 - $80m
Backup 16*)
B: Top 7 Domestic OW:
1) Avengers: Endgame – $310m
2) The Lion King – $185m
3) Toy Story 4 – $120m
4) Spider-Man: Far from Home – $120m
5) Detective Pikachu - 70m
6) Hobbs and Shaw - $70m
7) It Chapter 2 -70m
Backup 8*) The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $70m
😄 Worldwide top 12:
1) Avengers: EG - 2.3B
2) Lion King - 1.4B
3) Spider-Man: FFH 935m
4) Toy Story 4 - 850m
5) Hobbs & Shaw - 800m
6) Detective Pikachu - 700m
7) SLOP 2 - 700M
😎 Aladdin - 700M
9) Godzilla - 650M
10) MiB: ITL - 450M
11) Dark Phoenix - 430M
12) Once Upon a time in Hollywood 350
Backup 13*)
😧 TOP 5 Weekends
1) April 26th – April 28th: $350Mm
2) July 19th – July 21st: $260m
3) June 7th – June 9th: $230m
4) May 31st – June 2nd: $190m
5) June 21st – June 23rd: $190m
backup 6*) May 24th – May 26th: $175M
E: Multipliers
1) Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - 4
2) Yesterday - 3.7
3) Spider-Man: Far from Home – 3.6
4) TS4 - 3.3
5)
backup 6*) SLOP 2 - 3.2
F: Total Grosses
Top 15 DOM) $3.9b
Top7 OW) $940m
Top 12 WW) $10.23b
Top 5 W/E) $1.21b
Average Multi) 3.7
G: RANDOM FREE QUESTIONS
RFQ1: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game:
A: 100M It
B: 200M Hobbs and Shaw
😄 300M Secret Life of Pets 2
😧 400M Spider-Man: Far from Home
E: 500M The Lion King
RFQ2: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones Worldwide by the end of the game:
A: $1.5B The Lion King
B: $1B Spider-man
😄 800M Hobbs and Shaw
😧 600M Aladdin
E: 400M Men in Black
RFQ3: Predict the top grossing film of each month:
A: April Avengers: Endgame
B: May Detective Pikachu
😄 June Toy Story 4
😧 July The Lion King
E: August Hobbs & Shaw
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Part A:
1. Will Avengers Open to more than $260M? Yes
2. Will Avengers Open to more than $300M? Yes
3. Will Avengers Open to more than $280M? Yes
4. Will Avengers Saturday increase from its true Friday (excluding Thursday previews)? Yes
5. Will Will Avengers' make more than 82.5% of all the box office of every film reported by BOM when actuals are released? Yes
6. Will La Larona drop less than 56%? Yes
7. Will Pet Semetary stay above Us? Yes
8. Will Avengers Endgame overtake Dumbo's Domestic total on its opening day? Yes
9. Will any film in the top 15 drop more than 65%? Yes
10. Will Hellboy's PTA stay above $750? No
11. Will Little increase more than 40% on Saturday? No
12. Will Shazam drop more than 33% on Sunday? No
13. Will the White Crow have a PTA above $12k? No
14. Will After stay above PEnguins? No
15. Will Captain Marvel decrease less than 20%? Yes
16. Will Shazam's domestic total on Saturday be closer to the domestic total of Dumbo or How to Train Your Dragon? Dragon
17. Will Pet Semetary have the worst PTA in the top 10? Yes
18. Will Breakthrough overtake Hellboy DOmestically by the end of the weekend? Yes
19. How many films will make more than $2.5M this weekend? 7
20. Will Thanos ultimately be defeated by the power of friendship? Nakama Power!
Part B:
1. What will Avengers make for its 3 day OW? 306.7M
2. What will Dumbo's Sunday gross be? $750,000
3. What will Missing Link's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $847
Part 😄
There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:
1. Avengers: Endgame
3. Shazam!
6. Dumbo
8. Pet Sematary
9. US
11. Missing Link
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3 minutes ago, chasmmi said:
The most important thing prize wise is that all the winners are in either North America or the EU as that makes postage and what can be sent etc so much easier.
Luckily for me this summer... oh wait a sec. ARRRGH It's happened again!
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7 minutes ago, Premium George said:
Congrates @Infernus, that china's 4th day was not needed.
Hehe 😁
6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:Congrats to @Infernus for the win. I’ll be honest I am a bit blindsided seeing you come up so fast after the weeklies. During the weeklies I though WrathofHan or Sheikh or one of these strong guys would win it.
Honestly, I am feeling the same. I knew my pre-seasons went well but never really thought I was even in the running for the top before the preseasons totaling began. Had a sneak peek at @WrathOfHan's top 15 a few days ago, saw that they got the top 4 right in order where I didn't even get the top 2 right, and basically thought it was no game for me. There's just too much happening in the preseasons scoring to be able to predict anything though, and so I stand here very pleasantly surprised 😄
3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:Ownage. Congrats @Infernus. You can now look forward to chas sending you a Czech DVD of Cannibal: The Musical as a prize.
That sounds... intriguing? 😅
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Congrats to @WrathOfHan and @Wrath !
It's amazing how the littlest things can change everything. But for Ant man beating solo by less than half a million on the very last day of the game and WrathOfHan would have been the one to emerge victorious instead, with an entire top 6 perfectly predicted in the dom top 15.
Also, incredible performance by Wrath in the top 15. 1.5m was absolutely unprecedented, honestly.
Thanks a lot to everyone who played the summer game and made the whole of it so interesting, fun and competitive. Even bigger thanks in particular to @chasmmi and @JJ-8 for running another successful and ever more exciting rendition of this game. This game is easily one of the best parts of this site and you are the ones who make it what it is.
Still can't believe I actually won this, honestly. Have spent the last half an hour trying to explain to all my flatmates just why I'm so happy and exactly what this game is 😅
PS: I'm all out of reactions for the day but thanks to everyone for the congratulations!!
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YES! YES!!!
WOO HOO!!
CHAMPION - SUMMER GAME 2018!!!
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Whoa! 1.4m+ points! That's gotta be one of the highest scores ever in this section. Amazing job by @bcf26
Things are getting scarier with every reveal...
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Goddammit, with leads of 500+ being 'swatted aside like nothing' my flimsy lead of 68k over WrathofHan is looking even weaker now...
Just hoping my top 15 doesn't mess everything up for me... and that Action point really does fuck WrathofHan up 😅😈
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39 minutes ago, Wrath said:
I see what you're saying and understand your frustration, but the problem then becomes one of complexity. The results have to be accessible to the people playing. If you can't see how you're doing without paying for a subscription, then that's a problem. And pointing people to "lots of good sites" isn't really helpful unless they all report exactly the same data the same way. If there's any variance at all in what they report, then suddenly scoring becomes a free-for-all. Which site is correct? Some people might do better with the results from one site and others might do better with results from another site, leading to even worse problems.
In a nutshell, that's why we standardized on BOM. There has to be a single standard, and BOM is well known, accessible, and easy to use. Changing it to one that's better for your score, during the post-season scoring, IMO isn't the right way to go about it because it risks coming across as self-serving. That having been said, its not my game, I'm happy to stand by any rule-decision chasmmi and JJ8 decide is the way they want to go.
35 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:It was correcting for the drop in value for Yuan that happened towards the end and after IW’s run. How do we determine which ER to use over a movie’s run?
Since it was not determined at the beginning of the game, its only fair to use one particular ER. But since we cannot retroactively agree on one that would be fair to everyone, it makes sense to just go with BOM since we use its totals for other countries as well.
Ok, I agree with all of that. But why should any of that mean that we can't at least add Monday's totals to the BOM number? Monday was part of our game, right? And Monday's grosses are not included in the BOM totals, right? And we have the exact figures, in RMB at least, for Monday grosses of Ant Man and The Meg. What's wrong with converting them to USD by Monday's exchange rate and adding them to Mojo's totals? How can not including Monday's grosses at all be better than that?
In the end Chasmmi and JJ-8 are the game runners and I'll go with whatever they decide, of course, but I'd just like this to be considered.
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8 minutes ago, Wrath said:
You guys are running it so its up to you, but the rule has always been to use BOM as the source for nimbers. Not because its perfect so much as its consistent, broadly known and easily accessible.
But is traditionalism and all that really more important than being correct? I mean mojo literally has Avengers grossing negative numbers for the last few of its weekends! How does that make any sense at all? It's plain absurd
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4 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:
If I were to ignore BOM and use that site I get the following values :
Inifity War - 340.8m
JW FK = 241.9m
Meg = 151.54m
AMATW = 109.47m
Skyscraper = 95.4m
All are below the final totals on bom.. - some are well below. mind u I don't think they are final totals however....
I really don't think I can use those totals (in fact those will not help your cause...) - we can't pick and choose which sites we use to compile numbers especially when different sites are using different calculations to come up with the US figure here. BOM is our source and that is the way it has to be. I can't justify through 2 figures which are potentially difffernt to what BOM might report … it would make no sense or fairness to the other players.
Oh, those aren't the final totals according to that site. They are just the ones open to non subscribers. They don't show grosses from later weeks to non subscribers. Avengers actual gross in china, and you can confer with people from the Chinese forums and they'll probably point you to lots of good, reputable and far-more-accurate than-mojo sources for the same, was around 377m. Mojo gives us 359. Even JW's grosses are around 4m more than what Mojo gives us. I only need like 1.3m more in the total too 5 gross that we are getting from Mojo (and that's when it doesn't even include Monday's grosses when Ant-Man alone grosses 1.2m+ and Meg .2m+) to get an extra 95k. And it's not like I'm just trying to manipulate the numbers in my favour - these are the correct numbers! Using the actual correct numbers get the total to around 1001m instead of 979.something as mojo gives us. I, and the others who predicted 1B, are within 2% from 980.3 to 1020.4m. So we are definitely in that range. In fact even by mojos numbers we are only missing out on that range by around 1.3m. Monday's grosses alone get us there. So the thing is just that it feels unfair to me that we be at such a disadvantage despite actually being correct... That is all
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Just now, JJ-8 said:
accept to get apples for apples here I would have use the total they had on that site... not just the daily total … the meg's total on that site is actually about 300k less than BOM has for the end of sunday! same goes for the AM2 tooo … i'm sticking with the sunday totals from BOM instead... neither give you the result you want!)
Um, actually that won't make sense. BOm has calculated its entire grosses differently. It calculated them with the final ER. Since Monday grosses on that site were based on the ER on Monday itself, that would have been exactly what Mojo would have added to its totals had it updated on Monday. Otherwise if we were to use that site's total numbers only, the numbers for JW and Avengers would significantly change too.
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12 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:
they don't … I just checked. your total grosses score is exactly the same whether I use the sunday or Monday results.
what? Adding the 1.24 and .25 would mean China's total goes to 980.589629, right? That multiplied by 1.02 = 1000.2m. Meaning I get within 2% of China's total too as I predicted 1B. That will give me 50k for all 4 predictions and 200k bonus for being within 2% of them all. So 400k instead of 305k.
P.S I'm sorry for being kinda difficult here... But 100k is just too big a number for me to just let it go, especially when I'm this close to the top for once.
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5 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:
I'll confer with @chasmmi on this one but I against using numbers on the forum … I highly doubt they materially change anyones scores … tbh - the worldwide totals probably are as of sunday and only domestic is as of Monday (in the past we have always calculated things this way)
PS - no doubting they are correct but the source for numbers of the game is BOM....
They will massively change my score, actually... China is the only place I'm missing out the 2% on, from the totals you've given. And even if you don't use numbers from the forums, the monday numbers for china should be added into the mojo grosses, right? I realize things might be similar with WW grosses but then that doesn't mean we can't try to be more correct wherever we can and after all china has a separate section in our game so the extra attention to detail does make sense. Won't it be unfair if I, and some other too even if not to the same extent, lose out on almost 100k points just because we didn't include monday totals in our totals when that monday actually is a part of our game?
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7 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:
I used the updated values on BOM. (values in millions)
1 Avengers: Infinity War $359.54 2 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $261.22 3 The Meg $151.58 4 Ant-Man and the Wasp $108.52 5 Skyscraper $98.23 9 minutes ago, Infernus said:Edit: Oh, looks like you used the mojo totals. They aren't right though, are they? The Chinese forum gives us other, and more accurate numbers if I;m not wrong. But maybe that's what has always been used here (this is the first time it's concerned me so I don't think I've ever noticed it before)? But even otherwise, the numbers mojo is showing, even if you are gonna go along with that after all, only includes numbers up until this sunday. Monday's grosses, as can be found here - http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/?date=09 /03 /2018 , are not included in it. That would be 1.24m more for Ant man and .25m for Meg. @JJ-8
Oh, and if you do think about going by the numbers from the chinese forums here are some of the final totals from there -
. Avengers grossed 377.6m and JW grossed 265m according to that. And that's a massive difference from Mojo's numbers, which just uses final ER to calculate grosses thus even resulting in negative grosses some weeks as can be seen in Infinity War's weekend box office in china list on Mojo, and that doesn't make sense at all.
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10 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:
So firstly i'm posting the answers to Part G - Random Free Questions and Part F - Total Grosses.
Part F - Total Grosses
Total Grosses
Top 15)
$3,568,081,145
Top 7 OW)
$935,387,079
Top 12 WW)
$8,682,600,000
Top 5 China)
$979,099,629
Part G - Random Free Questions
(I've included first and second here as the scoring was done off the 2 closest
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Domestic Closest to
1st
2nd
100m
100,000,000
Equalizer 2
Christopher Robin
200m
200,000,000
MI Fallout
Solo
300m
300,000,000
Deadpool 2
Ant-Man 2
400m
400,000,000
JW Fallen Kingdom
Deadpool 2
500m
500,000,000
JW Fallen Kingdom
Incredibles 2
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Worldwide Closest to
1st
2nd
1.5b
1,500,000,000
JW Fallen Kingdom
Incredibles 2
1b
1,000,000,000
Incredibles 2
Deadpool 2
800m
800,000,000
Deadpool 2
MI Fallout
600m
600,000,000
Ant-Man 2
MI Fallout
400m
400,000,000
Solo
Mamma Mia 2
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Monthly highest (domestic)
1st
2nd
April
Avengers 3
I feel Pretty
May
Deadpool 2
Solo
June
Incredibles 2
JW Fallen Kingdom
July
Ant-Man 2
MI Fallout
August
Meg
Crazy Rich Asians
That China total doesn't match with what I have 🤔. What totals did you use for that?
Edit: Oh, looks like you used the mojo totals. They aren't right though, are they? The Chinese forum gives us other, and more accurate numbers if I;m not wrong. But maybe that's what has always been used here (this is the first time it's concerned me so I don't think I've ever noticed it before)? But even otherwise, the numbers mojo is showing, even if you are gonna go along with that after all, only includes numbers up until this sunday. Monday's grosses, as can be found here - http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/?date=09 /03 /2018 , are not included in it. That would be 1.24m more for Ant man and .25m for Meg. @JJ-8
What the.....
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No Way Home Weekend Thread | #RIP AIW Record | 260M OW DOM | 340M OS | 600M OW WW W/O CHINA
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Finally a box office mega event after frickin ages. Loving this. 250M+ OW, goddamn! Spidey solo over IW would have been quite the interesting sell a year ago.
And what a film. 10/10 to the heart of any spidey fanatic. Genuinely one of my happiest theatre experiences of all time. And nearly every fan I've talked to so far has the same to say about it and has/wants to watch it twice at least. Yet to meet someone who didn't rave about the film. WOM is out of the world and the multi's gotta be fantastic.
While there's the theory that covid might discourage rewatches I'd like to counter it with the possibility that the amazing WOM persuades people who were unsure because of covid to end up going for it as well.
260m puts 800m within the horizon imo. Unless, ofc, omicron has bigger plans.