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POTUS 2020

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    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

    Very informative breakdown, thanks. Still the TJB 150 is no fees and TLK 120 will be with fees, so might as well look at it as 45 vs 55 rather than 45 vs 51.7, right? 

     

     True. But in dollars this year is 5 to 10% weaker than 2015-16

     

    Is growth expected to be slow for the foreseeable future, or rebound to a faster rate soon?

    I think it stalls here. Up and down years with a slight upward trend like Domestic since 2010.

    It depends on GDP at this point. BO to GDP ratio is at the upper end now

    • Like 1

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    On 7/26/2019 at 12:25 AM, a2k said:

    TLK doing $115-125 is a bummer. Was thinking 2x that a couple of months back and $150-175 after the ow. Not coming close to TJB's $150 in such a growing market is disappointing.

    Market hasnt grown much. 

    Up 33% from 2015 to 2018, 45b to 60b.

    6% or 3.6b of that is the fee they count now.

    This year is on track to be down 5b for a 55b total, 51.7b w/o fees. 

    CNY releases were up 5.5b in both 2017 and 2018 vs 2015

    The market is near flat outside of CNY and down when you look at the top 3 summer grossers. Like WW2 and EG taking billions more than the top 2015 grossers. 

    As i explained in the China vs Dom thread, there is a limited amount of annual disposable imcome relative to GDP. 

    When a few movies like EG do better than expected and charge more per ticket, its going to take a toll on other movies. 

    I would say the market is down from 2015 (sans CNY and Top 3 summer hits), and after many people paid 50 to 200% more for 1 EG ticket, it is affecting movies for weeks after. 

    XR is also 5% worse.

    TLK is close to in line with TJB with all things considered imo.

    • Like 11

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    2 local releases with decent PS along with TLK. Spidey will take a hit Fri and the following Thur is mounting great PS for Looking Up. Still on target to clear $200m, could crawl to $210m

    Aq 9.3       XR 6.89 Vm 9.1     XR 6.94 SM7 9.1     XR 6.87
    Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot
    Fri 157     166 24.2 223     239 34 224     246 36
    Sat 266 69.6%   432 62.8 303 35.9%   542 78 244 8.9%   490 71
    Sun 220 -17.0%   652 94.9 224 -26.1%   766 110 185 -24.2%   675 98
    Mon 89 -59.5%   741 107.9 90 -59.8%   856 123 84 -54.9%   759 110
    Tues 74 -17.5%   815 118.6 80 -11.1%   936 135 66 -21.0%   825 120
    Wed 62 -15.9%   877 127.6 69 -13.8%   1005 145 60 -8.6%   885 129
    Thur 55 -11.5%   931 135.6 62 -10.1%   1067 154 55 -8.8%   940 137
                                   
    Fri 87 57.8% -44.7% 1018 148.0 85 37.1% -61.9% 1152 166 54 -1.8% -75.9% 994 143
    Sat 164 90.1% -38.1% 1182 171.8 162 90.6% -46.5% 1314 189 82 51.9% -66.4% 1076 157
    Sun 124 -24.6% -43.7% 1306 189.9 109 -32.7% -51.3% 1423 205 70 -14.6% -62.2% 1146 167
    Mon 41.4 -66.6% -53.6% 1348 195.9 35.6 -67.3% -60.4% 1459 210 38.0 -45.7% -54.5% 1184 172
    Tue 36.6 -11.6% -50.3% 1384 200.9 30.5 -14.3% -61.9% 1489 215 34.0 -10.5% -48.5% 1218 177
    Wed 33.1 -9.6% -46.5% 1417 205.7 26.6 -12.8% -61.4% 1516 218 30.5 -10.3% -49.4% 1248 182
    Thu 30.3 -8.5% -44.7% 1448 210.1 23.7 -10.9% -61.8% 1539 222 27.7 -9.2% -49.6% 1276 186
                                   
    Fri 33.4 10.2% -61.4% 1481 215.0 31.1 31.2% -63.4% 1571 226 18.0 -35.0% -66.7% 1294 186
    Sat 70.2 110.2% -57.3% 1551 225.2 61.5 97.7% -62.0% 1632 235 27.0 50.0% -67.1% 1321 192
    Sun 58 -17.4% -53.2% 1609 233.6 43.2 -29.8% -60.4% 1675 241 23.0 -14.8% -67.1% 1344 196
    Xeve 36.1 -37.8% -12.8% 1645 238.8 14.4 -66.7% -59.6% 1690 243 12.0 -47.8% -68.4% 1356 197
    Xday 35.7 -1.1% -2.5% 1681 244.0 13.0 -9.7% -57.4% 1703 245 10.8 -10.0% -68.2% 1367 199
    Wed 19.5 -45.4% -41.1% 1701 246.8 12.0 -7.7% -54.9% 1715 247 9.7 -10.2% -68.2% 1377 200
    Thu 17.5 -10.3% -42.2% 1718 249.4 11.3 -5.8% -52.3% 1726 249 5.0 -48.5% -81.9% 1382 201
                                   
    Fri 16.7 -4.6% -50.0% 1735 251.8 18.1 60.2% -41.8% 1744 251          
    Sat 18.75 12.3% -73.3% 1754 254.5 40.0 121.0% -35.0% 1784 257          
    Sun 43.4 131.5% -25.2% 1797 260.8 27.5 -31.3% -36.3% 1812 261          
    NYE 53.2 22.6% 47.4% 1850 268.5 9.3 -66.2% -35.4% 1821 262          
    NYD 50.9 -4.3% 42.6% 1901 275.9 8.2 -11.8% -36.9% 1829 264          
    Wed 11.5 -77.4% -41.0% 1913 277.6 7.8 -4.9% -35.0% 1837 265          
    Thu 9.7 -15.7% -44.6% 1922 279.0 7.3 -6.4% -35.4% 1844 266          
                                   
    BB od 5.3 -45.4% -68.3% 1928 279.8 2.1 -71.2% -88.4% 1846 266          
    Sat 12.1 128.3% -35.5% 1940 281.5 4.7 123.8% -88.3% 1851 267          
    Sun 10.8 -10.7% -75.1% 1950 283.1 3.7 -21.3% -86.5% 1855 267          
            2012 292.0       1870 269.5       1410 205
    • Like 2

    Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

    The Lion King (5 days Out)

     

    Midnight - 720k

    OD - 4.21m (42329 shows)

    Sat - 3.07m

    Sun - 2.29m

     

    Very good jump today especially for OD. Early to tell but possibly heading to a PS in the 30's region. Could go higher into the 40's if the increases continues to be as big as this. 

    Mid 30s sounds right

    1159pm

    Sat  4.2

    Sun 6.2     +47%

    Mon 9      +45%

    Tues 13.5 +50%

    Wed 20.3 +50%

    Thu  36.4 +80%

    x14   510m/$74.2m OW

     

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    3 hours ago, firedeep said:

    It does not work that way. Banning HLW would not affect him or them a bit. During Mao regime, CCP leaders and their families had always been able to enjoy the latest western films and products while the people struggled for food.

    Thats typical. There was propaganda against all things American in the USSR and most was banned.

    But when Khrushchev visited the US he said he loved disney cartoons and westerns.  He wanted to visit Disneyland and meet John Wayne. Disney was a security nightmare, that was out. But Wayne met with him on the condition he would not drink vodka, he drank tequila instead!

    Same with Kim Jong Il.  He hated the west, but loved the movies that were banned for the people.

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    On 7/3/2019 at 10:45 AM, POTUS 2020 said:

    Summer Fri/sat sees typically 20-25%/40-50% bumps instead of 40-50/80-100% if there isnt much show loss

    If Thursday is 55m look for 

    F  61m

    S  92

    S  79m

    T  232m -65%  but Sunday will be down just 57%

    The whole week may be down just 62% 

    Low $200s total still looking good

    Its looking like 60m. Staying on track for low 200s.  $210-220m if it doesnt fall more than 75% against TJB. Its got $200m even it fall 80%

    Aq 9.3       XR 6.89 Vm 9.1     XR 6.94 SM7 9.1     XR 6.87
    Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot
    Fri 157     166 24.2 223     239 34 224     246 36
    Sat 266 69.6%   432 62.8 303 35.9%   542 78 244 8.9%   490 71
    Sun 220 -17.0%   652 94.9 224 -26.1%   766 110 185 -24.2%   675 98
    Mon 89 -59.5%   741 107.9 90 -59.8%   856 123 84 -54.9%   759 110
    Tues 74 -17.5%   815 118.6 80 -11.1%   936 135 66 -21.0%   825 120
    Wed 62 -15.9%   877 127.6 69 -13.8%   1005 145 60 -8.6%   885 129
    Thur 55 -11.5%   931 135.6 62 -10.1%   1067 154 55 -8.8%   940 137
                                   
    Fri 87 57.8% -44.7% 1018 148.0 85 37.1% -61.9% 1152 166 60 9.1% -73.2% 1000 144
    Sat 164 90.1% -38.1% 1182 171.8 162 90.6% -46.5% 1314 189 90 50.0% -63.1% 1090 159
    Sun 124 -24.6% -43.7% 1306 189.9 109 -32.7% -51.3% 1423 205 77 -14.4% -58.4% 1167 170
    Mon 41.4 -66.6% -53.6% 1348 195.9 35.6 -67.3% -60.4% 1459 210 38.0 -50.6% -54.5% 1205 175
    Tue 36.6 -11.6% -50.3% 1384 200.9 30.5 -14.3% -61.9% 1489 215 34.0 -10.5% -48.5% 1239 180
    Wed 33.1 -9.6% -46.5% 1417 205.7 26.6 -12.8% -61.4% 1516 218 30.5 -10.3% -49.4% 1269 185
    Thu 30.3 -8.5% -44.7% 1448 210.1 23.7 -10.9% -61.8% 1539 222 27.7 -9.2% -49.6% 1297 189
                                   
    Fri 33.4 10.2% -61.4% 1481 215.0 31.1 31.2% -63.4% 1571 226          
    Sat 70.2 110.2% -57.3% 1551 225.2 61.5 97.7% -62.0% 1632 235          
    Sun 58 -17.4% -53.2% 1609 233.6 43.2 -29.8% -60.4% 1675 241          
    Xeve 36.1 -37.8% -12.8% 1645 238.8 14.4 -66.7% -59.6% 1690 243          
    Xday 35.7 -1.1% -2.5% 1681 244.0 13.0 -9.7% -57.4% 1703 245          
    Wed 19.5 -45.4% -41.1% 1701 246.8 12.0 -7.7% -54.9% 1715 247          
    Thu 17.5 -10.3% -42.2% 1718 249.4 11.3 -5.8% -52.3% 1726 249          
                                   
    Fri 16.7 -4.6% -50.0% 1735 251.8 18.1 60.2% -41.8% 1744 251          
    Sat 18.75 12.3% -73.3% 1754 254.5 40.0 121.0% -35.0% 1784 257          
    Sun 43.4 131.5% -25.2% 1797 260.8 27.5 -31.3% -36.3% 1812 261          
    NYE 53.2 22.6% 47.4% 1850 268.5 9.3 -66.2% -35.4% 1821 262          
    NYD 50.9 -4.3% 42.6% 1901 275.9 8.2 -11.8% -36.9% 1829 264          
    Wed 11.5 -77.4% -41.0% 1913 277.6 7.8 -4.9% -35.0% 1837 265          
    Thu 9.7 -15.7% -44.6% 1922 279.0 7.3 -6.4% -35.4% 1844 266          
                                   
    BB od 5.3 -45.4% -68.3% 1928 279.8 2.1 -71.2% -88.4% 1846 266          
    Sat 12.1 128.3% -35.5% 1940 281.5 4.7 123.8% -88.3% 1851 267          
    Sun 10.8 -10.7% -75.1% 1950 283.1 3.7 -21.3% -86.5% 1855 267          
            2012 292.0       1870 269.5          
    • Like 4

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

    I was talking about pre-sales trend.

    The PS trend is about the same when comparing an 8 day run  to 8 days and 14 to 14.  

    The PSm keeps changing though

    With only 8 days we'll be looking for 40-50% increases thru wed after the roll out settles down tomorrow.  Probably 75% but could be 100% on Thurs.  Been like that for 4 years.

    My chart from TJB PD run is posted in the PS thread, it was stronger than normal on the last 3 days

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