POTUS 2020
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Posts posted by POTUS 2020
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1 hour ago, a2k said:
150 needs 2.8x multi too using $53.5 ow.
Very tough if not miraculous for China on 9.0 rating (99.5k ratings).
Coco was 9.6 if I remember correctly.
Coco and zoo were new material which needs big WoM to boost the BO
F2 has a 6 year fanbase now.
RPO had under 9 rating and was able to to 3x OW if i recall correctly..
I just think the 130% bump meant something.
Im sticking with $125-150m until tues.
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1 hour ago, UserHN said:
How about 150 mil?
Tues Wed Thur will have to hold - 5-10% to get to $150m
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2 hours ago, fmpro said:
What indicates that sunday will do 171 mill? I dont see it
Ps been poping so around 38*4=150mill ish at best IMO
I have sat PS at 48 by 3pm. Sunday will be 20% lower at minimum. I doubt that PS multiplier will increase that much with 9,1 rating
Typically the PSm increases again. Back when things were more consistent the PSm would be 3, 4, 5 on FSS.
A 20-25% increase should be in order.
PS at 39m. 20% increase will get it close flat.
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21 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:
Will this mean 200M is on the table?
Both sun and tues need to be flat or better for $200m. That shows WoM is spreading and preventing demand burn in the dailies.
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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:
OD less than 20% OW, nice. Hoping a nice Sun PSm boost to make the drop as small as possible since each % today will have an outsized impact on final in terms of expected legs.
Fri PSm 2.8
Sat PSm 3.6 +28%
Looking for 4.5 tomorrow on 38m PS. Its been obeying traditional metrics, this increase normally happens
MN 1m
OD 73m
Sa 169m
Su 171m if so, tues will be interesting
OW 414m/$59m
3 keys to a pop.
Sat bump larger than normal. Check
Sunday bumps. In play
Tuesday holds flat or bumps. We'll see
Which leads to a larger second weekend and a great run.
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1 hour ago, a2k said:
What multi can be expected for Frozen...Somewhere between 10x and 20x
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Wont know until we see the 3rd and 4th weekend holds.
It will need to hold flat at $7.5 -8m from weekend 3 to weekend 12 like F1 to get to $250m - 14x.
10x for $180m we'll see 5-10% drops.
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54 minutes ago, PKMLover said:
So today (saturday) there will be no show after 10pm too?.
There are probably shows. Maoyan just stalled as it has done before.
58 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:its a family movie. Why would it do well late. Even domestic it really slows down late. That limited its previews potential.
Are a lot of older women into this like on Japan? It could do well in the evening.
23 minutes ago, fmpro said:OD number was overestimated so maybe thats why it froze around 10pm
Maoyan has 72,8 mill Friday
Today is 107 at 3,30pm and its only a question of how much over 100% increase it will get
maybe Elsa froze Maoyan.
Its running at 8m per hour. If it can hold that run rate it will clear 160m +125%
It can get to $200m if both Sunday and Tuesday are close to flat.
Otherwise $125-150m looking good
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:
True. AFter all its school time period. So its not surprising. At least @POTUS 2020 did say that. But test of where it will end depends on holds starting tomorrow. But 50m+ Ow happening. So its looking good for 100m+ run in china. really good run.
yes 100% sat increase often happens for a toon based on season, the type and demo. 150-200% indicates a pop for any toon like Coco/Zoo did.
The only time the PSm did not increase was EG due to saturation. The PSm should increase 25-33% bringing in 110-120% increase. Could lead to a flat Sunday and some legs.
$55m OW $125-$150m total is a win. I think that is toon top 10 all time for CBO
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34 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
It all fairness maoyan scores are crazy. It's damn near impossible for American toon films to resonate there. Incredibles 2 did 51 million and it was superhero film. It also had a lower Maoyan score and manages 2.44 legs.
its not a toon culture like japan or america. Both local and HLWD seldom resonate to the masses. lately 3 or 4 toons are in domestic's top ten, having comparable BO to SH's and other live action films. China now has 10 movies clearing $200m every year as domestic started doing 10 years ago but are averaging just 1 toon per year over 1b/$150m. Zoo was all time #1 for 3 years until NZ exploded, its not a HLWD toon issue
PSm should increase by 25% tomorrow and PS are on track to be up 60%. That will bring Sat close to a 100% bump. Expect 4.75x Friday~
75m OD just 3x PS
150m Sat
130m Sun
355m/$50.5m OW
Well we forecasted mid 20s PS and a $50m OW several days ago. The metrics worked for a change😏
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13 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
I think Toy Story numbers may be far fetched but let's see. It will be crazy if it hit $7mn on Saturday & Sunday.
you mean $7m each day? $14m total?
I dont think OW matters much. Weekdays will be interesting to gauge. 3rd weekend hold will be telltale.
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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Not with 85m OD. It needs to be higher to go higher than that. Plus not sure this will have great WOM. Remember reaction from early screening in China that @Gavin Feng posted. But one can never know. Let us see how Maoyan score is tomorrow.
remember its a toon. Sat bump will be 50-100% and sunday drops are softer
F 85m
S 128m +50%
S 102m -20%
T 315m/$45m
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1 hour ago, Mau said:
+60M in dollars possible?
With a great rating it will
Possible low to high:
Final PS 26.1m. It had a standard 7 day PS run with 45% average daily gains, finishing with a +74% gain
Low end- 3x PS and just a 50% Sat bump and average WoM 8.8 rating. 78m OD 280m/$40m OW
High end 4x PS a 100% Sat bump with great WoM 9.5+, 104m OD 468M/$66m OW
Im still thinking $50m~ OW
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42 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
Seems SK, China, DOM, Sat is where things are really concentrated. Wonder if it can pull the same Sat heavy trick in markets with great ODs though. Obviously much harder.
Yup. A toon can bump 100% on an OW Sat.
Some closer to 50%. Depends on age demo and OD rush
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2 hours ago, Valonqar said:
So how's TROS buzz in China?
I doubt there is any
2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:Poor day today. Unless it rebound tomorrow, gonna miss ¥100mn OD
up 43% is within the norm, should be 75-80% tomorrow. 100% possible
F2 1 day out
15m+ 43%
Expect 26.5m final PS. 30m possible
The PSm could be 4x. I wouldn't be surprised if it was under 3x. Most importantly is the rating. It will need a 9.5 to blow up a bit
$50m OW still likely, but under $40m could happen if PS are heavy or not well received as we have seen with other movies lately.
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F2 2 days out
PS at 10.5m +50% at end of Tues
still in line for 25-30m PS, $50m+ OW
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What are the thoughts for F2 OW?
$10m Fri/Sat $13m 3 day if it gets the seats or similar to F1'S OW? $7.5m/9.7m
F1's XR was 6% stronger 102.5Y to $ vs 108.6 today
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Frozen 2 OD PS at 7.16m up 39%
Likely to be up another 40% to 10m tomorrow, 50% Wed and 75% Thurs for 26m.
30m PS possible with a stronger wed/thur
100m+ OD 370m/$53m OW likely at this point unless PS are front loaded like a teen romance flick since F1 did skew up to older girls and women which frontload big sometimes. PSm could be less than 3x in that case
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14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
This generalization ain't accurate. China is Asian country and like majority Asian countries we love sequels.
But every film has its own individuality, just because some recent sequels aren't growing, doesn't mean sequels are doing bad. Those sequels didn't do well because those looked like shit and were shit.
Just recent, Mal 2, will do ¥350mn compared to ¥295mn of Mal, while in rest of world, sequel will end up doing just 60% of original and others as well.
FFH did almost double Homecoming, while it barely increase by 20% in rest of world.
1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:Not really, the first one was released in 2013. The Chinese market was starting to explode. Back then, Iron Man 3 made $120M beating all Marvel records. Fast&Furious 6 made... $66M.
And after IM3 did $120m, that became the upper end($120m-150m) for single SH movies until AQM and VNM broke out.
In general, yes Im generalizing, most sequels have not been increasing since 2013-15. Im not speaking of quality or how it increased or not in other marketd, but that the BO growth has slowed and most of the gains have been in gotten in just a handful of movies, CNY and other holiday films, the top 3 summer releases and a few HLWD movies. The rest is close to flat.
$30-50m had become common for toons by 2014 and its a common number this year.
If @Gavin Feng is right and it has built a huge following since then it could explode. Otherwise it would go the same route as Mal2(9.1 rated) and barely increase like M2 even though BO is up $100% since 2014.
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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:
As far as I know the Japan tracking situation is usually:
nobody tracks PS because it’s a legs market (like the only one on earth, at least to the same degree)
Corpse tracks weekends (and weekdays when exciting), gets posted here from WoKJ
If any other people are feeling excited about weekdays, they just go to a direct source and post what they’re seeing.
With Frozen 2 there may be daily tracking and posting.
This thread blew up with F1. Thats when I joined BOT. We were projecting 11am numbers from Toho's market share.
The weekends were virtually flat for months
Mar 15-16 1 $7,531,463 - 598 - $12,594 $9,731,697 1 Mar 22-23 1 $8,530,751 +13.3% 596 -2 $14,313 $29,535,712 2 Mar 29-30 1 $8,569,604 +0.5% 596 - $14,378 $51,579,593 3 Apr 5-6 1 $8,238,087 -3.9% 600 +4 $13,730 $75,093,431 4 Apr 12-13 1 $8,286,116 +0.6% 599 -1 $13,833 $90,636,007 5 Apr 19-20 1 $8,046,563 -2.9% 600 +1 $13,410 $104,683,811 6 Apr 26-27 1 $7,558,540 -6.1% 744 +144 $10,159 $118,594,135 7 May 3-4 1 $11,037,689 +46% 739 -5 $14,935 $143,207,359 8 May 10-11 1 $7,259,605 -34.2% 703 -36 $10,326 $166,953,747 9 May 17-18 1 $7,951,805 +9.5% 670 -33 $11,868 $181,228,459 10 May 24-25 1 $6,868,097 -13.6% 650 -20 $10,566 $194,123,636 11 May 31-Jun 1 1 $7,462,133 +8.6% 635 -15 $11,751 $207,749,319 12 Jun 7-8 1 $5,781,224 -22.5% 601 -34 $9,619 $218,470,155 13 Jun -
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8 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:
Sweetie, you missed the point of what I was saying entirely, the highest grossing Film in JPY isn't related to USD at all. But yes, the highest grossing in USD is relevant to this forum.
Honey.
He was asking about dollars.
Nevermind
F2 O/U at $150m ?
Should be fun to watch the dailies for a while.
Who's in charge if tracking these days?
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On 11/9/2019 at 8:42 PM, SchumacherFTW said:
USD numbers have no bearing on what the highest crossing film is in JPY
It does to Disney and international BO followers
On 11/9/2019 at 7:29 PM, Xftg123 said:I've wondered about this but is the reason why Spirited Away still the highest grossing movie in Japan and most attended one at the box office due to inflation and/or exchange rates? It's still at 30 Billion Yen, Frozen managed to pass it but it's at 25 Billion Yen.
XR changed is the simple answer.
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On 11/15/2019 at 7:23 AM, keysersoze123 said:
Frozen PS definitely on now. at 1.55m with 22791 shows. It has just under a week to go. Any comparisons @ZeeSoh/ @POTUS 2020 / @fmpro
I am thinking we should use TS4, I2 and Pikachu as movies to compare?
Im with ZeeSoh on this.
50%+ gain today should lead to mid 20s final PS.
100m OD
350m$50m OW possible.
PS needs to increase 45-50% sun thru tues to get there.
F1 held well WoW w decent WoM.
It should be well received.
Many sequels havent improved lately,
M2, T6, A dogs purpose etc.
It would be nice to see F2 double F1.
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On 10/5/2019 at 8:49 PM, Keanu said:
Ummm….
Is no one ever gonna post the Derby tracking document ever again….. 
I miss it 
I'm not as good as you all with the doc's 
so I rely on the kindness 
of BOT strangers. 
There you go
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12PLNyaSw7jsw7X3QpSQ6OE3cTPl9V1-X204hKwDZXJM/edit?usp=sharing
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Is no one ever gonna post the Derby tracking document ever again….. 
I miss it 
I'm not as good as you all with the doc's 
so I rely on the kindness 
of BOT strangers. 
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020
No. Typical weekday demand burn is 15-20%. If tuesday is -5-10% then 2.5-3x OW is likely depending also on future competition and screen loss.
Flat or bumped tuesday can lead to 5 to 10x OW which usually happens with smaller openers like Zoo Dangal Coco etc