[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

On 8/29/2019 at 5:18 PM, Thanos Legion said:

Well well well, that worked out nicely. Ne Zha looks like it will just barely miss 4M to me.     

 

I guess the PSm should rise, but I was expecting Fri PS to be higher. 

Maoyan adds to dailies for a couple of weeks. I always have to update my charts at the end of a run.

Thurs the 29th adjusted to 28.58/7.1446=$4,000,200

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

3 hours ago, a2k said:

256 away from 1432 ($200 using today's exr) after 187.5 weekend.

surely possible. $191 / 1370 is the floor imo.

PS down just 52% for Mon. If it can make 24m -59% and in turn make 78m for the midweek- its 265m for the week- 1260 total.  If the following 2 weeks hold -58%= 158m and 10m the last weekend.

1428m total. Just above 1425m/$200m 

Average XR is 7.125

A couple big releases the following weekend though.  It'll be close.

[There’s people here. There’s a white Derby. | Week 35]

pLayer sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12PLNyaSw7jsw7X3QpSQ6OE3cTPl9V1-X204hKwDZXJM/edit?usp=sharing

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

26 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Looks like high 50s to me, maybe 10-15% over Thurs. That would be ~190-200 for the weekend.   

 

Wonder what day NZ will beat it in dailies. Probably next Fri or Sat, with school starting up.

PSm increased. 56-58m Fri.  190m sounds about right.

Shall do 250m for the week, 1235m total next thur.

HS still aiming for 1420m/$200m

NZ will overcome next Sat BO.

 

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well well well, that worked out nicely. Ne Zha looks like it will just barely miss 4M to me.     

 

I guess the PSm should rise, but I was expecting Fri PS to be higher. 

NZ could uptick Y600k and get there

 

The new releases will open to just 25m in total but has 42% of the shows

NZ PS is flat, FFHS PS is down 13%, they lost 30% of their shows, they also have 42% but will make 80m.  They will get a lot of shows back on Sat and look for bigger bumps-  NZ 70%, FFHS 50%

 

NZ is at 4600m, it will hold -28% this weekend.  4900m/$700m locked

 

FFHS finished the week at 982m/$138m.  It will make 160m this weekend-77%.

Last weekend was updated to 709m/$100m

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

All the micro analysis of the holds. I love it. Lets put it to bed.

No competition for 2 weeks

FFHS  $200m locked 

NZ       $700m locked

SW9      $10m doubtful

 

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

24 minutes ago, a2k said:

can it show that bump Thu to Fri while loosing a few shows?

I think Fri to Sat bump could be stronger but guessing with a lower Fri.

Wont lose many shows but FF's don't  bump like SH's.

I expect 20% fri, 40% sat, -27% sun

FF8 bumped 33%F 60%S but that wasnt summer

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Tuesday multiplier should be worse.  

 

FFH Mon added 4.35x the 13-15 period. FFH Tues 3.714x   

 

H&S Mon added 4.9x the 13-15 period, as consistent with its more night heaviness over the weekend.     

 

I’ll edit the calculations in 40 minutes when we have the 15:00, but it’s looking like about +5.1 for 29M. That would be 9.3 from the 13-15 period, so with the same multiplier as yesterday would go to 75. I’d expect more like x4.4, for 70.   

 

Exit: 28.7 at 15:00, so I’m thinking 69-74. See when I wake up.

On track to reach 37m by 1650, yesterdays mid point.

74m -18% DoD

$200m locked

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

1 hour ago, Jaybee said:

-55% is bad or average?

Thats average for a summer Monday for this demo. It skews older so less matinees .

The tell tale hold is tomorrow O/U 20% will be bad/average

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

47 minutes ago, a2k said:

sat and sun it doubled the 3pm number. am guessing that due to work in the morning and noon, weekdays have a later doubling point.

 

if it doubles at 3:30pm then will do 37.4 * 2 = 74.8 (-60%).

if it doubles at 4:00pm then will do 40.2 * 2 = 80.4 (-57%).

Could be 430 or later with strong evening shows. FFs skew older than SHs. They will take it in after work. 

Its running at 5.5m ph. Double that from 630-9pm.  85-87m -55%

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

6 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

Good opening weekend now real test begins tomorrow 

 

also didnt detective pikachu do 2.2x with 8.6 score ?

 

5 hours ago, a2k said:

and KOTM did 1.92x with 8.5

1.9-2.1x for HS would give 1340-1480 (about $190-210) total.

 

4 hours ago, Jaybee said:

Didn't follow for two days and I was thinking that $85m will be a win after a very low score. Surprised to see it making 99-100m. What would be the min/max estimates from here?

Over 2x, $200m+, has a good shot. Summer weedays this week and 3 very small releases next weekend with little show loss.

It just needs to hold better than -20% on Tues and Wed

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

Its going to be real close to 190 Sun, ¥709,620,000m/$100,000,000.00m OW

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

50 minutes ago, a2k said:

What should be the halfway point on Sunday?

I would say 30m before Sat.

1450. Which is now

92m @ 1450

184m Sun -24%

705m/$99.5m OW

 

Edit

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Around 20-30 mins earlier than Saturday.

You read my mind Salty Nephew 

[It’s really nice to have somebody to talk to about Derby stuff, you know? | Week 34]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12PLNyaSw7jsw7X3QpSQ6OE3cTPl9V1-X204hKwDZXJM/edit?usp=sharing

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Can it drop on Monday by 60% as schools are rejoining.

 

4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I thought it was the same with respect to school as AM&TW, which was -55% first Mon and -65% 2nd Mon. Not sure though, will be happy to hear the definitive answer on school timing.        

 

I have a tough time seeing a flat Sat at this point too. Has been trailing FFH every hour, overall added 26.5 from 3 to noon vs 29.7 for FFH. With same multiplier to rest of day would be 211, looking to fall further behind this hour. 

I read that school starts first Monday of sept.  Thats why i put 50%. Could drop 55%. It should drop 65% the following Monday 

 

It should average 16m per hour for the rest of the day, getting it close to flat.

 

Not bumping has less to do with quality of the film, more so that 190k shows allows a large part of the fanbase to rush OD. 

OD/OW multied have been dropping with the rise of show counts.

FF7 had 80k shows im 2015

FF8 had 163k ib 2017

FF8.5 has 190k

EG had 225k

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

A possible scenario, could improve

Mn  35m

Fr   245

Sa  245

Su  174  -29%   OW  699m/$$99m

Mo  87   -50%

Tu   70   -20%

We  57   -18%

Th   47   -18%   Wk1  960m/$135m

Fr    57   +20%  no competition

Sa   74   +30%

Su   50   -30%   WE2   181m/$25m  -74%    

M-Th 53

Rest  70

Total  1264m/$178m  -50%~ from FF8 and FF7 in yuan

 

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

I'll be damned.  Evening was strong and Maoyan didnt stall. 

OD 243m

PS look weak for tomorrow, not sure if it will bump, but for now $100m+ OW looks feasible.

 

NZ 40m -41% WoW.  Great hold, On track for $700m

[It’s really nice to have somebody to talk to about Derby stuff, you know? | Week 34]

3 hours ago, Tower said:

Yeah the time seems to have been changed, is this a mistake? Because if you meant to change the time you should have warned us.

Got to be a glitch.  He wouldn't have moved it before 1159pm Thur.  That was the old-old time

[It’s really nice to have somebody to talk to about Derby stuff, you know? | Week 34]

On 8/21/2019 at 11:48 PM, AndyLL said:

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

Hi Andy. Predictions are closed, not able to input, its 1142 pm PDT  Thu

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

FFHS 100m @1300

I get 200-210m
If sat is flat with this rating 600m/$85m

I would say $85-95m for now

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

20 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

$90m+ opening still possible?

PS at 68.2 and counting.

Going with a standard PSm of 3.33 and standard daily moves

MN     35m

Fr      233m  3.33x PS

Sa     256m  10% Summer Sat bump

Su     205m  20% Summer Sun drop

Total 729m/$103m  @7.08 yuan to $1

Could be a few percent higher

or 20% lower with a bad rating/PSm

[Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)]

4 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Final day is coming along at a solid clip, above FFH at the same time now so maybe high 60s after all (or night will be slower, my dataset is still quite tiny 🤷‍♂️). I think I’d take the under on Bumblebee in USD though. 

The PS run rate is getting furiously faster

At 2m per hour and should continue to increase. 66-70m at 3am.  90%~ final day increase.

Caveat, Maoyan could stall

Assuming it doesn't stall, and if it can do 3.3x PS, $100m+ weekend possible with a decent rating, 9.1+

<$80m with a 2.5 PSm is also still possible

Ill go optimistically with $95-105m because there is a bit of doom and gloom and saltiness

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

2 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

What's the minimum that h&s can do even with worst reviews! ?

It could open with just $80m based on weak PS and do 1.8x with an 8.8,  $144m.

Maoyan PS has been erratic for months.  It could open $80m-100m+, then its up to the rating.  

I wouldn't put money on any prediction at this point

 

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

37 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I actually don’t think Hobbs and Shaw will get that bad of wom in China 

 

92% on EGG in South Korea 

 

3.9/5 on filmark in japan 

 

prob will get 8.8 - 9 on maoyan 

Thats low for an FF movie.  PS not ramping up well, it needs 9+ to do well

 

NZ held -8% yesterday at 50m.  -6% today at 47m.  Probably 44m tomorrow.

4300m/$614m+ total tomorrow, ahead of my projection.  It lost 40% of its shows last friday but still bumped 10%.

It will lose 40-50% of shows this Fri.  If it can just hold flat to thursday it will be down just 34% WoW.

If so, I give it 50/50 it clears 4900m/$700m.  Slight chance for 5000m$714m. it will lose summer weekdays though on Sept 2

Never say cant clear $400m $500m $600m $700m in CBO. Ya never know!

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's some bull-shit.

 

Ne Zha is doing whatever it is doing, not because of Zero-Sum game but a fucking 9.6 Maoyan score for a local biggie.

 

If BO was zero-sum game, we would not be looking at just 1-3 billion dollar films next year, when there will be 8 this year.

You're sounding salty😆

 

He is correct in talking about BO market as a whole. There is only so much disposable income in a movie going population.  A few great films can get a few more people out or get some people to go a few more times than normal. But when a few huge films hit the market, other films suffer, when a blockbuster disappoints or gets censored a vacuum is created and other movies thrive. NZ may have done less if the censored films hit the market.   Im sure millions of chinese can only or wish to afford 1 movie in a month or a season.  I went to 1 movie a month when i was a kid.  In summer of 75., in June July August, i saw Jaws Jaws Jaws. Other movies suffered that summer.

If this is a huge year with 8 one billion dollar films, why is domestic and china down YoY to date?

As you can see below domestic mostly floats up or down a few percent. In 2014 only 2 movies could clear 300 and none over 400m, the year was down 5% from 2013(3movies over 400m). In 2015 we had AoU 450m, JW 650m SW7 650m (within 2015).  These top 3 made 500m more than 2013's top 3  and the year was up just 200m, 2% from 2013

It is a zero sum game with 5% give either way.

 

 

ear	Total Gross*	Change	Tickets Sold	Change	# of Movies	Total Screens	Avg. Ticket Price	Avg. Cost^	#1 Movie
2019	$7,390.3	-	820.2	-	482	-	$9.01	-	Avengers: Endgame
2018	$11,893.1	+7.4%	1,305.5	+5.8%	878	-	$9.11	-	Black Panther
2017	$11,072.2	-2.7%	1,234.4	-6.2%	740	-	$8.97	-	Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2016	$11,377.5	+2.2%	1,315.3	-0.4%	737	-	$8.65	-	Rogue One
2015	$11,129.4	+7.4%	1,320.2	+4.1%	706	-	$8.43	-	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2014	$10,361.3	-5.2%	1,268.2	-5.6%	707	-	$8.17	-	American Sniper
2013	$10,924.6	+0.8%	1,343.7	-1.3%	689	-	$8.13	-	Catching Fire
2012	$10,837.6	+6.5%	1,361.5	+6.1%	669	-	$7.96	-	The Avengers
2011	$10,174.2	-3.7%	1,283.0	-4.2%	601	-	$7.93	-	Harry Potter / Deathly Hallows (P2)
2010	$10,565.6	-0.3%	1,339.1	-5.2%	538	-	$7.89	-	Toy Story 3
2009	$10,595.5	+10.0%	1,412.7	+5.3%	521	-	$7.50	-	Avatarp