POTUS 2020
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Posts posted by POTUS 2020
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44 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:
Good Monday too for The Bravest.
It bumped sunday, and -40% today. Overshadowed by NZ. We could have 4 movies over 100m this Friday
NZ heading to 165m -5% from thur
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On 8/1/2019 at 1:06 PM, Xiaoshu said:
130M at 7p.m
Mon 122m at 7pm. Just -7% from thur after a huge weekend of demand burn. Heading to 160m~. Down 14% WoW
Still holding well.demand not letting up.
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13 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
The only films I will rank below will be Cars trilogy, Brave, A Good Dinosaur. So yeah bottom 6th.
I do admire your work in CBO but those comments on Endgame OD and following days don't help the latter part of your sentence.
I was just kidding around
I get my balls broken all the time when im off.
I dont stop posting or quit twitter.
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5 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
IMO TS4 is among Top 10 Pixar films, not Dory though. In Top 15 though.
They only made 21. Top 15 is bottom 6th.😆
Salty Uncle? I thought we were friends
On 8/3/2019 at 8:03 AM, Xiaoshu said:155M at 2p.m
23 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:NZ 177m at 3pm
190m at 3pm
Ahead of yesterday but tonight will be weaker.
Close to flat today. Impressive
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8 hours ago, Xiaoshu said:
Wed is Valentine Day, should hold well.
Ok. It will lose shows to LW2 but increase capacity due VD3. Probably bump. Its up to Fridays hold to see where its going.
PS tomorrow on pace to be flat . PSm may lower again. Low 300s for sun. If Monday can hold 50% we could see 150s, just down 10% from thur.
Im thinking next fri could be -30-40% WoW. Possibly beating its OD of 139m
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59 minutes ago, Xiaoshu said:
155M at 2p.m
1 hour ago, Xiaoshu said:155M at 2p.m
NZ 177m at 3pm
PSm dropping today as I thought.
Mid 300s unless evening really pops
$500m still locked.
$600m still looking good for now. Need to see hold against Wed release
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6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Trade balance will not be solved with tariffs. Consumers bore the costs of all of them. Farmers get killed and the subsidies don't fix everything. Tarifs for EU ie more taxes for Americans being announced soon.
Republicans literally hated tariffs for the last 200 years until Trump came along. They used to hate spending like crazy too.
DeficitDebt will reach 30 trillion if trump is in office till 2024 and that's without a recession.If tariffs suck, then the EU, China, India, Japan and others should get rid of them. They have been taxing us to protect their products while we let them flood our country with theirs tax free good and a lot of name brand knock offs.
I quit the republican party when Bush was elected. Trump is a business man, not a republican, IMO he would have been an independent but Ross Perot couldnt win as one and we got Bubba Clinton in 92.
Reagan had large deficits too, but his low tax and pro business policies got the budget balanced in the mid 90s with Newt Gingrich pushing it (no, not Bubba's doing)
Medicare and social security are the largest expenditures, thank you FDR. Shall we cut that? Stupid program. Have 22 year olds who have nothing, cant afford insurance, want to buy a home and start a family pay a 15% tax to pay and care for 65 year olds who own homes w/o a mortgage, have adult children and should have savings.
Again we are off topic
21 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:“Only” $609M needed for top single market animation gross.
that looking good unless demand burns off this weekend and we get a 20% drop on tuesday
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2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:
The Bravest rating isn't real imo.
What do you think?
9.6 should have had a bump today and it doesnt look like its going to bump much tomorrow. Its acting like an 8.5. Looks to be doctored to me by the numbers
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33 minutes ago, Barnack said:
If
off topic. you or I will not impact this. Leave it up to my boy DJT and Mao disciples
25 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:Presales
Ne Zha -52m
The Bravest-16m
WTF!
54m +100% at 1230am and still counting. Last stalled at 27m.
PS could reach 60m. Shows are increasing 14%
Hard to imagine it will do 400m. The PSm could drop
If so $600m likely
Just for fun
Total 1668m
Sat 400m
Sun 350m
M-Th 600m
Total 3018m
total after the next 3 weeks with...
if 400m+ sat happens
60% drops 3988m/$578m $550m locked
50% drops 4373m/$634m $600m likely, need to see Tues hold
40% drops 4840m/$702m $700m in the cards, need to see next Fri's number
A boomer that bumps the second weekend usually holds -30 to -40% on the third weekend, we'll see with competition on wed and fri.
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17 minutes ago, Barnack said:
Why balance trade ?
Visit Flint, Detroit, West Baltimore, and hundreds of other towns and cities across America that were decent places to live and now in ruins due to cheap imports.
They say unemployment is 3.7% but that doesn't include the millions on welfare especially in cities like these.
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14 hours ago, dudalb said:
And the trade war with China escalated again today with 300 Billion more in tariffs being levied against China.
Hollywood execs are very worried that eventually CHina will include US films in their retaliation by cutting the number of US Films allowed to be distributed in China.
That will kill their theater business which is already hurting
Tax the shit out of them until we balance out trade. The deficit is ridiculous.
NZ will be close to 200m as the final tally is coming in. Sat PS up 60% and counting at 43m. Will get up over 75%.
350m+ incoming tomorrow.
$
400$500m locked. Maybe $600m. need to see tues holdTB dropped 10% today, Odd for a 9.6 rating. PS look weak for tomorrow
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3 hours ago, Olive said:
Maoyan predicts 366M Saturday!
200m is likely tomorrow. I was being conservative with a 50% bump to 300m on my projection.
75%+ to 350m+ is possible
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7 hours ago, firedeep said:
Gavin, it was totally unecessary to quit. Potus was just being Potus. He likes to prove his prediction right.
Everyone makes terrible predictions. Making a right prediction is like lighting strikes a bottle. I too used to be kinda sensitive about my predictions pointed wrong. But as I grew older, I found it all meaningless. Now if someone tells me my prediction is wrong, I give no sh*t.
Predicting box office is not even gambling. It's just a message board. One has no obligation to make sure the call is accurate. He/she can abosultely make whatever predictions he/she wants. It is all right.
and i was right...
again...
this time
NZ lost 17% of its shows but will drop less than 10% to the mid 170s. $108m Midweek
PS looking to bump 20% for tomorrow as it loses another 10% of shows.
the weekend could be F200m S300m S280m,
780m/$113m 2240m/$325m total
add in 500m for next midweek and we have 2740m/$397m.
Damn it fell short of $400m. Perhaps it can crawl over with rest of the run
The Bravest 115mOD. 9.6 rating, shall be interesting to see how they run together
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2 hours ago, peludo said:
I guess that Ne Zha's forecast will not be more trustable until we see The Bravest's real impact. The initial forecast for it is "just" 1.165b, but still with a 9.6 rate in Maoyan.
There are so many seats now two movies can be big at the same time. I dont believe The Bravest overlaps the same demos as NZ's. Maybe Gavin can shed light on that.
NZ PS down 10% from yesterday. Perhaps 170m for thur. A small bump on Friday gets it to 200m, possibly 300m on Sat. I remember MH, Pancake man and TMK making 400m on a Saturday for the first time in 2015. 800m wouldnt be a problem today with the number of screens if TB blew up.
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4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
Yeah, that would be really huge, and Maoyan forecast is... not always reliable. Shouldn’t let it distract from 3B being great — but these weekdays have been really out there. Until it starts actually dropping there’s a lot of uncertainty.
The trouble with projecting too high on the current dailies is that demand burn can kick in any day. WW2 looked like it was going pass SW7 domestic total and after 15 days of great holds it then normalized in one day (-15%) w/o warning. $500m looks good. Need to see this weekend and tuesday's hold to be confident with $600m
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23 minutes ago, Olive said:
maoyan updated Ne zha liftime forecast 4.19B
Thats $609m
Its not doing over $600m!!
Just kidding, anything is possible in CBO!
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57 minutes ago, MeowwoeM said:
Heyyyy anyone knows what's up with Gavin? He locked his Twitter account
Oh jeez. I wasn't harsh on him. He said my over $400m projection with data backing it up was wrong with a wave of the hand. I pointed out he has been wrong lately and quite frankly trolling at times with SW? doing $100m?
I'm not sure who is more sensitive Chinese or Indians. I'm sure I'll get a response
Anyway, Slight bump for NZ, That locks a $100m+ midweek matching OW. 2nd weekend should also clear $100m.
$300-310m 10 day total on Sunday
$400m locked. I still like $500m
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24 minutes ago, fmpro said:
Flat tuesday. 400-450 mill $ total commeth
Yup. possibly higher
$102m OW
$103m Midweek
$105m 2nd weekend (even with a 150m thur this should happen- F185, S285, S255
$60m 2nd Midweek (normalized sun, mon, tues drops reduce the MW even with same WE amount
$370m 14 day total
with a $165m 2nd week.
Just 60% drops in week 3 and 4 get it to $462m plus $10m+ for rest of run $472m
50% drops $493m +$15m RoR, $508m
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21 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:
Dying to Survive
$31M on Monday
$233M total.
Another $235M from the rest of the run.
Ne Zha
$27M on Monday
$131M total.
$269M from the rest of run? Ignoring The Bravest, Line Walker 2?
I'm not always right about box office and never deny it. But if that become the evidence to prove I'm wrong. Fine, I quite.
Im not always right either. When I state with conviction I give data to back it up, thats all. As you did here, after your original post. Thank you
Lets look at it
DTS NZ
Th 160m
Fr 241 137m
Sa 386 230
Su 386 286
Mo 207 186
Tu 177 184
We 148 172?
DTS had a great Sat bump and sun and mon holds. Tues and wed normalized with 15% drops. Demand burn kicking in after a larger OW.
The trajectory on NZ is different. A smaller Fri with great bumps on both Sat and sun, and a huge hold on monday and Tues near flat. The WoM is still spreading and family films/toons generally have larger OW multis.
NZ Tues passed DtS's Tues, as I suspected, and the gap will get bigger. $269m more is no problem now that we see Tues is 4% bigger and I assume Wed will be 15%+ bigger
The Bravest is a different demo, they can coexist. Same with Line walker 2. New releases take a lot of shows on day 1, but a 9.7 rated, super holding, potentially $500m family film kicks new releases asses and take names later. They will get hit, not the normal other way around.
@fmpro 👍
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4 hours ago, Jiffy said:
Is CBO still anticipated to overtake US revenue in the near-future?
no. but I dont just say no without reason. Gavin gave a good reason after his initial statement but Charlie made a good counter argument with Monday being smaller than friday on DtS. Monday being larger than Friday is huge, $400m locked.
Many authors of BO columns and nearly everyone in this forum thought in 2015 that CBO would overtake Domestic by 2017-18. I nailed the slow down when no one saw it coming in 2015.
Some columnists have recently repeated that CBO will pass Dom in a couple of years. 2018 was $9b and 2019 is pacing for a 5% or larger drop. I've recently realized that most of the gains have been from CNY, a time that has become a tradition to take in a movie. With screens doubling since 2015, CNY gains have increased but the rest of the market is near flat outside of the top 3 grossers of the year. They have nearly maxed out on disposable income shown below. Could be 10 or more years.
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1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:
won't hit $400M.
if it falls 20% tomorrow and wed. i would agree.
you've ebbing and flowing on the wrong side
Spidey under 600m OW
TLK over $300m
Now NZ under $400m
locked
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1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:
Monday will be 185m+.
Yup, I thought 830-10pm would fade as we have seen a lot lately on maoyan
$400m locked with that hold. -35% from sunday is huge WoM overflow
$500m close to locked if it holds flat tomorrow
Cant project beyond that, never know when demand burn kicks in after second weekend
$100m+ 1st weekend
$100m+ mid week
$100m+ 2nd weekend
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Ne Zha
Fri 137m
Sat 229
Sun 285
Monday will be 160m+, down just 45%~ from Sunday, up 20%+ from Friday. Great hold. TLK was down 60% its first Monday.
Friday and Sat will bump WoW, Sunday may not since it will have a standard drop, $100m+ 2nd weekend likely
$290-$300m total on Sunday day 10
3b/$436m likely if it holds tight tomorrow (-5%)
4b/$500m likely if Tues is flat or better
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020
Are the ghost cities getting worse? I keep seeing youtubers walking around cities over 3 years old without another soul in sight. Millions of flats owned by investors that live elsewhere. I read a CDO(bad mortgage) crisis is coming like in 2008.
China collapse will cause a ripple world wide. Or a tsunami.