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POTUS 2020

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Everything posted by POTUS 2020

  1. It would have to bump big(110%+) tomorrow and hold tight Mon-Thu to even get into the $640s $650m doubtful but ya never know with late CBO legs
  2. yup. most of it was made at 6.73 and we'll have the right number here but mojo and most other place will screw it up like they did with IW. I have IW at $376m. EG will be lowered by 1.4%($8m) by mojo on Monday with the 6.82 rate its comical to look at IW's chart below CHINA Weekend Box Office2018 Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross / % Change Gross-to-Date Week # May 11–13 1 $191,034,859 - $200,486,738 1 May 18–20 1 $54,161,473 -71.7% $301,403,464 2 May 25–27 2 $17,750,990 -67.2% $333,784,095 3 Jun. 1–3 3 $14,014,594 -21.1% $353,530,497 4 Jun. 8–10 4 $6,572,073 -53.1% $366,249,504 5 Jun. 15–17 6 $943,513 -85.6% $368,735,506 6 Jun. 22–24 9 $331,243 -64.9% $366,437,358 7 Jun. 29–Jul. 1 14 $138,740 -58.1% $360,483,643 8 Jul. 6–8 12 $65,696 -52.7% $359,543,153 9
  3. yup. 100% bump on Saturday regardless of today's performance. could go 110% due to DP weakness Expecting flat was being conservative, was hoping for a 20%+ bump. Expect a 40-50% bump next Friday w/o competition DP going to do just 75m with just a 2.5 PSm instead of 3x+. Maoyan data has changed and an 8.7 isn't helping. expect 3.3x that for OW. 225m/$33m EG XR 6.73 IW XR 6.35 Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Wed 534 725 108 Thur 316 -40.8% 1041 155 Fri 424 34.2% 1465 218 387 447 70 Sat 551 30.0% 2016 300 493 27.5% 940 148 Sun 208 -62.3% 2224 330 332 -32.8% 1272 200 Mon 124 -40.4% 2348 349 109 -67.1% 1381 217 Tues 255 105.6% 2603 387 81 -25.7% 1462 230 Wed 501 96.5% 3104 461 65 -20.0% 1526 240 Thur 337 -32.7% 3441 511 53 -19.0% 1579 249 Fri 241 -28.5% -43.2% 3682 547 72 36.4% -81.5% 1650 260 Sat 141 -41.5% -74.4% 3823 568 142 98.2% -71.2% 1792 282 Sun 51 -63.8% -75.5% 3874 576 132 -7.0% -60.2% 1924 303 Mon 33.8 -33.7% -72.7% 3908 581 31.6 -76.1% -71.0% 1956 308 Tue 28.2 -16.6% -88.9% 3936 585 25.2 -20.3% -68.9% 1981 312 Wed 24.3 -14.0% -95.2% 3960 588 21.1 -16.3% -67.4% 2002 315 Thu 20.9 -13.8% -93.8% 3981 592 18.6 -11.8% -64.6% 2021 318 Fri 28.0 34.0% -88.4% 4009 596 23.1 24.2% -67.7% 2044 322 Sat 56.0 100.0% -60.3% 4065 604 50.8 119.9% -64.2% 2095 330 Sun 41.0 -26.8% -19.6% 4106 610 39.9 -21.5% -69.8% 2135 336 Mon 13.5 -67.1% -60.1% 4120 612 12.0 -69.9% -62.0% 2147 338 Tue 11.5 -14.8% -59.2% 4131 614 11.1 -7.5% -56.0% 2158 340 Wed 10.0 -13.0% -58.8% 4141 615 10.5 -5.9% -50.5% 2168 341 Thu 8.8 -12.0% -57.9% 4150 617 12.1 15.8% -34.9% 2180 343 Fri 12.5 42.0% -55.4% 4162 618 35.2 190.9% 52.4% 2215 349 Sat 25.0 100.0% -55.4% 4187 622 31.6 -10.2% -37.8% 2247 354 Sun 18.0 -28.0% -56.1% 4205 625 23.2 -26.6% -41.9% 2270 358 Mon 6.0 -66.7% -55.6% 4211 626 7.8 -66.4% -35.0% 2278 359 Tue 5.2 -13.3% -54.8% 4217 627 8.5 9.0% -23.4% 2287 360 Wed 4.5 -13.5% -55.0% 4221 627 8.9 4.1% -15.3% 2295 361 Thu 3.9 -13.3% -55.7% 4225 628 7.8 -11.9% -35.5% 2303 363 8.5 9.5% -75.7% 2312 364 18.4 115.5% -41.8% 2330 367 15.5 -15.8% -33.2% 2346 369 Proj 4280 636 2390 376
  4. China tariffs US goods at a rate. The US has charged China little to none for decades and the trade deficit is huge and manufacturing jobs are lost. Michael Moore has complained about the conditions of Flint for 30 years. Trump is trying to fix it.
  5. Well, all 3 of us agree on 50-60m. Up to the rating now and the PSm
  6. Fri PS tracking for a bump over today 110m+ for the weekend. 4093m/$608m+ on Sunday
  7. PS heading to low 30s. Maoyan has been off, but typically we'd be looking at 3.5-4x PS for OD and OW at 3.3x OD 105-125m OD witha 30% Sat bump 350-410m/$51-60m. Higher always possible with a great rating, OD PSm(4+) and Sat increase(50%+) could blow up
  8. If there isnt much competition, movies typically bump 25-50% on Fridays, 50-100% on Saturdays. DP could cause EG to be flat on Friday but it will still bump 100% on Saturday $625m+ if it doesn't bump friday. up to $640m if it does EG XR 6.73 IW XR 6.35 Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Wed 535 725 108 Thur 316 -40.9% 1041 155 Fri 424 34.2% 1465 218 387 447 70 Sat 551 30.0% 2016 300 493 27.5% 940 148 Workday Sun 208 -62.3% 2224 330 332 -32.8% 1272 200 Mon 124 -40.4% 2348 349 109 -67.1% 1381 217 Pre Holi Bump Tues 255 105.6% 2603 387 81 -25.7% 1462 230 Holiday Wed 510 100.0% 3113 463 65 -20.0% 1526 240 Holiday Thur 337 -33.9% 3450 513 53 -19.0% 1579 249 Holiday Fri 241 -28.5% -43.2% 3691 548 72 36.4% -81.5% 1650 260 Holiday Sat 141 -41.5% -74.4% 3832 569 142 98.2% -71.2% 1792 282 Workday Sun 52 -63.5% -75.2% 3884 577 132 -7.0% -60.2% 1924 303 Mon 31.0 -39.8% -75.0% 3915 582 31.6 -76.1% -71.0% 1956 308 Tue 27.0 -12.9% -89.4% 3942 586 25.2 -20.3% -68.9% 1981 312 Wed 23.5 -13.0% -95.4% 3965 589 21.1 -16.3% -67.4% 2002 315 Thu 20.5 -12.8% -93.9% 3986 592 18.6 -11.8% -64.6% 2021 318 DP Opens Fri 20.5 0.0% -91.5% 4006 595 23.1 24.2% -67.7% 2044 322 Sat 41.0 100.0% -70.9% 4047 601 50.8 119.9% -64.2% 2095 330 Sun 30.0 -26.8% -41.7% 4077 606 39.9 -21.5% -69.8% 2135 336 Mon 10.0 -66.7% -67.7% 4087 607 12.0 -69.9% -62.0% 2147 338 Tue 8.6 -14.0% -68.1% 4096 609 11.1 -7.5% -56.0% 2158 340 Wed 7.5 -12.8% -68.1% 4103 610 10.5 -5.9% -50.5% 2168 341 Thu 6.6 -12.0% -67.8% 4110 611 12.1 15.8% -34.9% 2180 343 35.2 190.9% 52.4% 2215 349 31.6 -10.2% -37.8% 2247 354 23.2 -26.6% -41.9% 2270 358 7.8 -66.4% -35.0% 2278 359 8.5 9.0% -23.4% 2287 360 8.9 4.1% -15.3% 2295 361 7.8 -11.9% -35.5% 2303 363 8.5 9.5% -75.7% 2312 364 18.4 115.5% -41.8% 2330 367 15.5 -15.8% -33.2% 2346 369 4220 627 2390 376
  9. I assumed 31m -40% from yesterday like last monday. 1700- 22.82m. Its running at 1.4m per hr and that RR should increase. 31 is looking good even with a 2100 stall It should hold -15%~ Tues thru Thur. The next key number is whether or not Friday bumps decent. Boring until then
  10. it works, just differently and it stalled. new pattern figured out. for now
  11. Intraday has been difficult, but I'm sure a new pattern will emerge( runrate and midpoint figured out). Historical patterns for dailies shouldn't change. today heading to 51m if it stalls at 830. 55m+ if it doesn't, -61-64%, similar to last workday sunday's 62% drop. Expect -40% tomorrow. I assume 13-15% drops Tues-thur. I put it as flat on Fri with DP opening. But DP's PSs aren't huge, it could bump 10-25% Sat or Sun EG XR 6.73 IW XR 6.35 Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Wed 535 725 108 Thur 316 -40.9% 1041 155 Fri 424 34.2% 1465 218 387 447 70 Sat 551 30.0% 2016 300 493 27.5% 940 148 Workday Sun 208 -62.3% 2224 330 332 -32.8% 1272 200 Mon 124 -40.4% 2348 349 109 -67.1% 1381 217 Pre Holi Bump Tues 255 105.6% 2603 387 81 -25.7% 1462 230 Holiday Wed 510 100.0% 3113 463 65 -20.0% 1526 240 Holiday Thur 337 -33.9% 3450 513 53 -19.0% 1579 249 Holiday Fri 241 -28.5% -43.2% 3691 548 72 36.4% -81.5% 1650 260 Holiday Sat 141 -41.5% -74.4% 3832 569 142 98.2% -71.2% 1792 282 Workday Sun 54 -61.7% -74.0% 3886 577 132 -7.0% -60.2% 1924 303 Mon 33.0 -38.9% -73.4% 3919 582 31.6 -76.1% -71.0% 1956 308 Tue 28.5 -13.6% -88.8% 3948 587 25.2 -20.3% -68.9% 1981 312 Wed 24.5 -14.0% -95.2% 3972 590 21.1 -16.3% -67.4% 2002 315 Thu 21.0 -14.3% -93.8% 3993 593 18.6 -11.8% -64.6% 2021 318 DP Opens Fri 21.0 0.0% -91.3% 4014 596 23.1 24.2% -67.7% 2044 322 Sat 42.0 100.0% -70.2% 4056 603 50.8 119.9% -64.2% 2095 330 Sun 30.0 -28.6% -44.4% 4086 607 39.9 -21.5% -69.8% 2135 336 Mon 10.0 -66.7% -69.7% 4096 609 12.0 -69.9% -62.0% 2147 338 Tue 8.5 -15.0% -70.2% 4105 610 11.1 -7.5% -56.0% 2158 340 Wed 7.5 -11.8% -69.4% 4112 611 10.5 -5.9% -50.5% 2168 341 Thu 6.5 -13.3% -69.0% 4119 612 12.1 15.8% -34.9% 2180 343 35.2 190.9% 52.4% 2215 349 31.6 -10.2% -37.8% 2247 354 23.2 -26.6% -41.9% 2270 358 7.8 -66.4% -35.0% 2278 359 8.5 9.0% -23.4% 2287 360 8.9 4.1% -15.3% 2295 361 7.8 -11.9% -35.5% 2303 363 8.5 9.5% -75.7% 2312 364 18.4 115.5% -41.8% 2330 367 15.5 -15.8% -33.2% 2346 369 4250 632 2390 376
  12. They should slow down building theaters soon. Revenue per screen is at a 10 year low. But they never learn, build build build until its over saturated. Happens all the time. They mite be able to squeeze in one more show per day and increase screens by 20% by then. 280k shows is my guess. PTA will be higher in 3rd and 4th tier. $350m 3 day. $500m if its a 5 day. We are finally close enough to talk about it You've talked about it for way too long. Marvel has done $20b in BO since Avatar came out. You can wait until PS start
  13. Normally it was close. Something has changed. Not running smooth and predictable as it was. Low unemployment. Stocks at all time highs. Wages increased. You know you love Trump.
  14. @AndyLL in the lead. I think thats the first time Ive noticed. Good luck! 1 AndyLL 85.96 2 datpepper 85.90 3 TheXper 85.58 4 sloth 83.99 5 Zeverly Hills Cop 83.49
  15. Lets drop the RR to 9m and run it to just 9pm. 161m. On target. Anything more is gravy
  16. Fri PSm was 3.08 +10%. assume at least the same % increase for tomorrow. could be 15% Sat 3.4x Sat PS will finish at 48m 163m+ Sat -32%
  17. player sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PGv6g4m-eTLJvWhyDn8H8yzL8xchQhWxI_azU9Tgl3Q/edit?usp=sharing
  18. yup. stalled just inside my range. jinxed it itll crawl higher or hopefully jump up
  19. And you just cursed it😀 Look like 350 was locked yesterday and maoyan slowed big time at 830pm. Looks good though. 12m p hour is the low point today. Rate should pick up soon. And i just cursed it😣
  20. EG XR 6.73 IW XR 6.35 Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Wed 535 725 108 Thur 316 -40.9% 1041 155 Fri 424 34.2% 1465 218 387 447 70 Sat 551 30.0% 2016 300 493 27.5% 940 148 Workday Sun 208 -62.3% 2224 330 332 -32.8% 1272 200 Mon 124 -40.4% 2348 349 109 -67.1% 1381 217 Pre Holi Bump Tues 255 105.6% 2603 387 81 -25.7% 1462 230 Holiday Wed 510 100.0% 3113 463 65 -20.0% 1526 240 Holiday Thur 337 -33.9% 3450 513 53 -19.0% 1579 249 Holiday Fri 230 -31.8% -45.8% 3680 547 72 36.4% -81.5% 1650 260 Holiday Sat 150 -34.8% -72.8% 3830 569 142 98.2% -71.2% 1792 282 Workday Sun 70 -53.3% -66.3% 3900 579 132 -7.0% -60.2% 1924 303 Mon 40 -42.9% -67.7% 3940 585 31.6 -76.1% -71.0% 1956 308 Tue 34 -15.0% -86.7% 3974 590 25.2 -20.3% -68.9% 1981 312 Wed 29 -14.7% -94.3% 4003 595 21.1 -16.3% -67.4% 2002 315 Thu 25 -13.8% -92.6% 4028 599 18.6 -11.8% -64.6% 2021 318 Fri 25 0.0% -89.1% 4053 602 23.1 24.2% -67.7% 2044 322 Sat 50 100.0% -66.7% 4103 610 50.8 119.9% -64.2% 2095 330 Sun 36 -28.0% -48.6% 4139 615 39.9 -21.5% -69.8% 2135 336 Mon 12 -66.7% -70.0% 4151 617 12.0 -69.9% -62.0% 2147 338 Tue 11 -12.5% -69.1% 4162 618 11.1 -7.5% -56.0% 2158 340 Wed 9 -11.4% -67.9% 4171 620 10.5 -5.9% -50.5% 2168 341 Thu 8 -14.0% -68.0% 4179 621 12.1 15.8% -34.9% 2180 343 35.2 190.9% 52.4% 2215 349 31.6 -10.2% -37.8% 2247 354 23.2 -26.6% -41.9% 2270 358 7.8 -66.4% -35.0% 2278 359 8.5 9.0% -23.4% 2287 360 8.9 4.1% -15.3% 2295 361 7.8 -11.9% -35.5% 2303 363 8.5 9.5% -75.7% 2312 364 18.4 115.5% -41.8% 2330 367 15.5 -15.8% -33.2% 2346 369 4300 639 2390 376
  21. PSm Wed 2.69 Thu 2.8 Fri 2.9-3 est Fri PS at 78m, Fri est 226-234m -31-33%
  22. Running 80% lower than yesterday. Should make an additional 108m, maybe a bit more. 363m+. 3 PSm. Yesterday's PM was 2.69 Assuming 3.35 PSm for tomorrow.
  23. and how many here said over 400m for May 1? a week ago? CBO Derby Champ! cant go up 100% that's too big too much demand burn lower it, lower it please its too much thank god it crawled over 500m. Could you imagine if it stopped at 499m? Someone here would have to go to the hospital like that little chinese girl that couldn't stop crying😥 And I made a big call on what would happen in the movie three weeks ago in the PS thread! and I don't even watch these films. China and Domestic both have walls. I love walls
  24. How dare you mock the almighty Derby Champion! I said high 300s this morning while Maoyan was scratching his head. Chill or be toast!
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