JamesCameronScholar

I really hope that this is going to go big. DV needs it, if it bombs is anyone going to give him a big budget again?

This is one spicy meat ball - yet the stock has gone up... https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-reports-profit-falls-69-amid-u-s-coronavirus-outbreak-11586862723

I don't doubt it, but if we are really taking the utilitarian stance to minimize the number of people dying then we would globally ban tobacco and alcohol tomorrow. Which we're not. Per Worldometer: 1,337,613Deaths caused by smoking this year 669,229Deaths caused by alcohol this year 286,933Suicides this year

Another great quote from that article if anyone cares to read it: They're optimistic (buy their book to find out why!), that overall more people will be saved because they're out of work and not dying in automobile accidents. Which is all fine and good, but the level of human suffering this crash will bring will, in my view, be greater than the suffering caused by Covid (at least, as the article so clearly states) in wealthy countries.

Also @MrGlass2 That's an interesting article for sure but this stood out to me: That they put all their sources behind a paywall of me buying their book makes me really question their motivations, and veracity. The fact that they openly admit that the 08/09 recession did indeed cause an increase in suicides but hand wave it away is very strange. The rest seems muddled thinking at best, I refuse to buy the book, but I know for a fact that suicide increased after the 08/09 crash.

Suicides so far this year: ~280k Deaths from Covid: 76k https://www.worldometers.info/ - Source. Can you source this please. The stats I am seeing - as above - suicides vastly outnumber covid deaths, or do we only care about the UK/US?

Friendly notice: as of this post you're statistically more likely to kill yourself than be killed by Covid-19. If (when) this depression really ramps up there will be more deaths from the economic fallout behind the response to C-19, than C-19 itself, by I would guess at least double. Just my early guess.

Estimates made purely based on sort of quick thoughts of GDP impact of job losses is 1% GDP lost per 1% work force made jobless. 10m unemployed out of CIVPART of 165m would be about 6% of US GDP gone in 2 weeks. I think that the jobless claim is probably closer to 30m, and possibly even 70m if absolute worse case. Let's just go with what we currently know though... To put the above into perspective the 08/09 GDP change was about -4%. Best of luck folks.

What I'm saying is look at CIVPART not total pop. Also to note: I called this out in this thread a few months ago, but the post was deleted by a mod, possibly as a result of what they felt was a callous view of unemployment, that is now becoming a stark reality.

The percentage of people participating in the workforce was lower then, far more housewives and people didn't live as long (it was also the tail end of extended family living). Trying to draw direct comparisons between these two is hard because of the paradigm shifts we've experienced since - we hadn't even launched a satellite during the GD, now we have a 2 tonne rover on Mars. I'm just hoping that the timescales are scaled down as a result of information flowing faster, maybe Avatar 2 could be our very own Gone with the Wind. P.S. RMB works on here right ¥?

It's all priced in.

This is the beauty of it, it was always coming, and I believe that 08/09 will be seen as the pre-cursor, that we failed to fix systemic problems and bang. Covid isn't the cause of this process, it has however acted as a catalyst, lots of people focusing on it and ignoring the economic reality that is going to hit millions of people like a truck. @AndyK worldwide - ergo Great Depression 2. Also agree that Trump is done. Not that President Biden will be an improvement...

Worse than I could have imagined. This will be the second great depression.

If the unemployment numbers are over 1.5m then I think we see the bottom really fall out. I hope it isn't the case, but I fear it will be.

Someone is a Tekken fan.