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NCsoft

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  1. NCsoft
    This current situation is possibly worse than say... progressively reopen the country and relax zero covid policies step by step + theatres that open would check covid negative test - right now it seems like people are either covid positive (with fever), or afraid to go to any public venues. The covid hesitancy is sky high amid massive number of infections, probably similar feeling to NYC in summer 2020. At this point I don't know if the high number of theaters being open is actually beneficial in anyway.
  2. NCsoft
    Do we think there might be enough reviews out there to drag this MTC score back to 70? I do not like this 69 number.
  3. NCsoft
    I'd put it this way; The reviews are good enough for "it's badly reviewed" or "its reviews are mixed" narratives to not take place which could prematurely dampen passion for it for those who kind of want to see it,, and those who are on the edge. It should have no negative impact on ticket sale and allows later WOM from general audience to fully take effect.
  4. NCsoft
    Yeah, getting people incessantly clicking/refreshing their site seems to be the goal.
  5. NCsoft
    This may be a "Top critics respect the craft" effect. Avatar doesn't benefit from a "like vs dislike" scale.
  6. NCsoft
    It definitely is, I think part of it is because it's so unique and its own thing, that it lacks a proper comparison among other blockbusters these days. Either you're charmed by Avatar, or you're alienated by it, and reviews kind of reflect that level of divisiveness, interestingly, currently where it stands is not too far off from Dune's MTC and RT.
  7. NCsoft
    Glitchier than ever
  8. NCsoft
    73 on MTC with like 40 reviews, stabilizing in that range, probably unlikely to go down or up much from this point. This is reasonably good, considering the average MTC for most well reviewed blockbusters kind of fall in this range.
  9. NCsoft
    Yeah, a little lower than I expected, but nothing to panic over. I'm hoping MTC would climb a little bit now that some of the worst reviews are already in and still maintaining 72 is actually reasonably good. RT, unsure if it will come down or be stable, but hoping for 80+% at least. Avatar I think is just going to fundamentally have some level of divisiveness built into it, it will always have a dedicated group of people who intensely dislike it, the people that were determined that its "style and no substance", won't easily turn around. That's fine, so be it.
  10. NCsoft
    This is also what I would have done in a similar situation; I can't wait that long to see it, but I can't imagine not seeing a movie that I've waited years on in the best format I can find.
  11. NCsoft
    Dune Part 2 might have an advantage in best picture mostly due the prestige status of the source material, kind of like LOTR in a way, rather than something like Avatar. Though while Dune won all the technical awards, it never got even a best director nomination (still bizarre to think about), which suggest that Dune Part 1 was further away from best picture than Avatar was in 2010 (arguable top 2). Really am curious to see how Dune Part 2 does. The closest a Sci-fi ever got to best picture win was most definitely Gravity, but then many don't consider that Sci-fi.
  12. NCsoft
    Has a shot at winning director with a combo kind of in the line of Life of Pi I guess (Cinematography, production design, Visual effect and directing).
  13. NCsoft
    When those first reactions came out I was slightly disappointed and was definitely not thinking that this was on track to repeat the original's performance in the award season, especially knowing how they are with sequels, not to mention Sci-fi sequels. Now it's hard to imagine Avatar not getting nominated for both Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars, and it's emerging as potentially a top 5 contender for Picture (Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, Top Gun Maverick being the others).
  14. NCsoft
    So that is what it is! I saw the Chinese poster earlier and I blanked on it. I totally forgot it came out this year and I actually saw it...
  15. NCsoft
    Going with 192.5M Opening weekend for now.
  16. NCsoft
    This is encouraging, Grace Randolph hated the first one (still lukewarm after rewatch) Now look at her Critic choice awards nomination ballot... What a drastic change in attitude.
  17. NCsoft
    What is a little bit unfortunate is that the Chinese currency (RMB) took a huge tumble this year, and the film that you were referring to (Battle of Lake Changjin), which made $900M, would be equivalent to ~$830M, so that may be the maximum allowable box office for Avatar 2. Though I don't know if I necessarily buy the "CCP will intervene" narrative, Jim has a good relation with China and those theatres need the help; In any case, getting up there in numbers in this market conditions is probably too optimistic to begin with, but we probably can expect a good haul still.
  18. NCsoft
    I don't know if China can contribute that much, that was more referring to Brainbug's prediction; but I think the optimal range for China can be quite high. Presale numbers are solid and much of it come from theaters that are not even currently open but will be opening in a few days; it's got a relatively unimpeded run throughout Christmas, New Year, and until Chinese New Year, even then it may get extended and kind of takes advantage over a relatively lackluster CNY slate, who knows, maybe Wandering Earth 2 and A2 would even make this CNY all about Sci-fi (I'm being optimistic here). But personally, if China somehow gets to $800M, I think domestic goes easily over $850M, Cameron films don't behave like Star Wars or MCU, they are not going to be hot in one market and then cold in another.
  19. NCsoft
    Yeah, If we are getting Domestic 850M, China 800M, sounds to me like a $3.3B worldwide situation to me. I cannot imagine a scenario where China massively respond to it even under this current circumstances, and domestic also does reasonably well, but overseas-China somehow are underwhelmed by it, the original is so big for OS-C markets afterall.
  20. NCsoft
    My preferred way of adjusting gross is really just go by (gross/average ticket price of year of release)*(average ticket price of current year), doesn't give us data on real admission, but admission relative to a average ticket of that year based on film's gross, gives proper advantage to PLF ticket premiums. I think even calculating that way, TFA domestically is like $100M ahead of Avatar, Avatar probably has slight advantage over Endgame; Avatar is luckier in the sense that it got to claim domestic crown for 6 years, Endgame always be in the shadow of TFA...
  21. NCsoft
    The director nomination here feels quite significant, I mean they nominate way to many films, but for directors, they included Cameron instead of : The Daniels, Todd Field, Damien Chazelle etc... Maybe we could be looking at Academy Picture/Director double nom again!
  22. NCsoft
    He's been saying A4 is the craziest for quite some time now, so it's probably true.
  23. NCsoft
    Dan Murrell was always very Meh on Avatar, very dismissive, but here it actually seems like he's impressed and kind of like it. Sasha Stone (Awardsdaily) is pretty much loving it, I mean she knows her Oscars and she thinks this not only is in for best picture nomination, but likely director as well (which puts the film at pretty much top 5).
  24. NCsoft
    Thank you @ThomasNicole for posting all of these, it's really getting better and better, I'm just sitting here grinning reading all these.
  25. NCsoft
    She's softened on it recently upon a rewatch, I think she might see where the tide is going and just decided to kind of switch narrative.
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