EmpireCity

Transformers sequels have all opened over $100m adjusted and had awful reviews. Lucasfilm could release 135 minutes of Darth Vader taking a shit and it would open over $100m easily.

I'll take that bet. Name your price.

Wait until the first actual footage hits and people see everything familiar again (Stormtroopers, Death Star, Rebels, X-Wings) along with a big role for Darth Vader and what sounds like a possible cameo for the new young Han Solo. Rouge One is a lock for $100m opening.

It will be an absolute stone cold lock. Feel free to save this post and rub it in my face if it isn't. The Super Bowl spot wasn't great, but the first trailer had a lot of reaction and buzz. It is a 4 quad nostalgic blockbuster in a similar way that Jurrassic World was. It won't have quite the same entire family audience, but will be more than big enough for $100m opening.

You aren't getting it. The examples you keep giving is how he is really well known among the general public of comic book/cartoon/anime crowd. No argument there, but we are talking about the actual general public. The total audience of what you keep mentioning is really small comparatively.

Batman vs. Superman, Captain America Civil War, Rogue One, Finding Dory and Independence Day:Resurgence are locks. I think Fantastic Beasts will have a great shot. Suicide Squad might have a great shot now. Jason Bourne would be a very under the radar sleeper pick. The last one with Matt Damon opened to $70m, but the audience has aged and likely doesn't help.

Missing characters from the comics means absolutely nothing to the box office of Civil War given that 90% of the audience has likely never read the comic or even cares about it. These movies are movie based now, the comics are largely irrelevant.

Perhaps you don't get what I am saying because you keep using very niche markets to justify that GENERAL PUBLIC knows who Deadpool was before the production of this movie. They didn't know him. Spiderman, Superman, Batman, Hulk are very mainstream characters. Iron Man is another similar popular but wasn't known by the general public until Robert Downey Jr. brought him to life.

10 years ago that might have meant something, in 2016 it won't mean anything that Will Smith isn't in it.

Wait until you see the Jurassic World like opening weekend numbers for Independence Day: Resurgence.

What percentage of the general public reads comics? What percentage over the age of 18? Sorry, the general public pretty much had no idea who Deadpool was back before this went into production.

Deadpool was a virtual unknown to the general public.

Whoops. I fixed it.

Friday Estimate...... Deadpool - $47.5m

If you can, switch the numbers credit in the thread title back to RTH. I am much more guessing than he would be at this point.

I completely agree with you.

April is a pretty bad month in general, sort of the spring version of early September for about 3 weeks. With that said, I think this year will break the pattern of the last few years. Jungle Book and Winter's War should help.

I am not nearly as good at the early stuff as RTH is, but I see $40+ as well right now. The word of mouth is spreading like wild fire.

It looks like DC Comics actually has the rights at this point for comic books and they have done a few crossover things, but nothing major.

That is the basis of my thinking as well. If he does this and it is successful, he can literally do any project he wants as part of it.

I am of course making a lot of assumptions, this is my opinion off of what I can see and hear. Bloated is pretty easy though. Zack Snyder tends to run his movies 20 minutes or so too long, usually with effects work that isn't necessary. Oh, it absolutely desperately needs to succeed for Warner Bros. and DC. They have billions in future productions and revenue riding on this being a good enough success to jump start their DC shared universe. Off the top of my head, they have Batman vs. Superman, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, Justice League Part 1&2, new Batman Trilogy and others either with release dates or in the works. That right there is $5b-7b in box office alone not even mentioning home video, merchandise, etc.... They need this to work. I agree that Affleck might not want it, but supposedly he didn't really want Batman either but they talked him into it. Then they talked him into more and more and more. I would think if he is going to be that deeply involved, might as well be the boss of the whole thing, but that is my speculation on WB eventually wanting Zack Snyder removed from power.

Not according to the studio as of today. 151 minute final run time.

My bad on Hellboy, but I thought The Green Hornet has been under the DC banner? Shows what I know. =)

Don't be shocked if they go that direction. Batman vs. Superman is another bloated 151 minute long Zack Snyder production, and it desperately needs to succeed. The studio and everyone that has seen the movie has supposedly thought the movie is ok but Affleck is great in it. They already have given him the virtual green light for a new Batman trilogy that he will direct. If Batman vs. Superman isn't well received overall but he is, not really a stretch to think they might back the money truck up to a guy who has proven himself at being not only a decent actor but a very talented director who works efficiently and has a clear vision. He already has a strong relationship with Warner Bros. and is the reason he took on Batman in the first place.

It 1000% started with X-Men being a massive surprise and box office hit in July of 2000 w/ $50m+ opening weekend. Then Spider-Man more than doubled that in 2002 breaking a ton of records and it was off to the races. X2 built both financially and critically on X-Men with an $85m opening in 2003. Batman Begins set another new standard in 2005 when it came to DC. Everything was either stand alone or self contained trilogies. X-Men, Spider-Man, Hulk, Hellboy, Blade II, Daredevil, Superman Returns, Fantastic Four and others all had varying degrees of success or failure both critically and financially. There were a lot of misfires and no real plan among the studios. Where everything finally changed for good was Marvel Studios coming up with the plan to execute a shared universe across many studios and characters that would all build into them eventually meeting in The Avengers. That started with Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk in 2008. Even though The Incredible Hulk sort of failed, Iron Man was at the time a side character super hero among public perception, but Robert Downey Jr. vaulted him into super stardom and showed Marvel that it could have massive success with not so well known characters. The success of Iron Man gave the green light to Iron Man 2, Thor, Captain America and ultimately The Avengers. The Avengers is where it went full supernova. After the wild success of that and the consolidation under Marvel/Disney, you are pretty much assured comic book movies until they stop making movies. DC has struggled with everything not named Batman Begins or The Dark Knight. They had flop after flop (either financial and/or critical). Superman Returns, Jonah Hex, Green Lantern, Watchmen, Hellboy 2, The Green Hornet, etc... Man of Steel was just enough of a success that WB/DC went ahead with their shared universe. They have billions riding on the success of Batman vs. Superman. They need it to do $1b and hope people are interested enough to want to see things like Wonder Woman and Aquaman. I think Suicide Squad is going to do well, but all the other stuff is a big risk that I don't think will ultimately work out. My guess is, and judging from the latest Batman vs. Superman trailer, that WB is going to remove control of the properties from Zack Snyder and go way more Batman centered and give creative control over to Ben Affleck. He will end up becoming the virtual show runner for the WB/DC universe.