EmpireCity

Saturday estimates.... Kung Fu Panda 3 - $11m Hail, Caesar - $5.3m TFA - $3.7m The Revenant - $3.7m The Choice - $2.7m Pride & Zombies - $2.3m

Kung Fu Panda actually held up better than I thought and will hit $41m. TFA also held up even better than reported and should be around $11.3m when the actuals come out today. I think at the same point, Jurassic World made another $31m, so I would say the absolute floor for TFA is going to be $935m given it has another big 4 day kids weekend coming up. Still think it makes it to $950m overall.

It hasn't yet and don't be surprised if the actuals are lower.

The Saturday number is also way inflated.

Saturday estimate..... Kung Fu Panda 3 - $17.8m

Estimate..... Kung Fu Panda 3 - $10.2m Finest Hours - $3.35m

Sorry, it is Friday and I have had a few drinks!

What lesson? This is a box office discussion and prediction site. If we all sat here twiddling our thumbs and never going out on a limb when it comes to numbers it would be a pretty boring place. Also, it is not really accurate to say no one knows anything, and it certainly isn't impossible to have a pretty accurate prediction. We only find out when the movie opens and goes through its run, but to think people can't call some of this stuff pretty well is also not accurate. I don't think it is pointless, it is what the forum is set up for. FYI, I openly laugh at $340m for Suicide Squad. I don't feel bad about that, and pretty damn sure I will be right.

I think it will do well, but $340 is a joke. Freaking Man of Steel couldn't even do $300m, and that was with a ton of hype and Nolan behind it. Guardians of the Galaxy didn't even do $340m.

Lol. Suicide Squad is not making $340m domestic. It will be lucky to make $200m domestic.

Thursday estimates.... $1.5m for The Revenant $1.35m for TFA

Also, I am pretty sure Disney had to give up some Star Wars screens trying to get Finest Hours above 3k locations.

I am only speaking on a very limited number that I can see, but Finest Hours is getting almost zero interest and sales. I mean like less than Dirty Grandpa is getting today. Not sure if that holds, but it looks like a gigantic bomb.

Put it in the other thread, but TFA at $1.3m

Monday..... The Revenant - $1.5 TFA - $1.3

The storm throws a monkey wrench in, but here are some Saturday estimates.... The Revenant - $7.6m TFA - $6.7

Thursday Estimates...... $2.15m for The Revenant $1.9m for TFA

$1.5m for Ride Along 2 $1.4m for 13 Hours

Star Wars is king not only because it is Star Wars, but because it has the biggest and toughest daddy on the block named Disney backing it up. Release dates and the exhibition business is all about politics and power, and if you want to get screens you better have that power. If Disney wants to move in on a release date, then Disney is going to get that release date. Why? Because it owns Lucasfilm/Marvel/Pixar/Disney Animation/Buena Vista and nobody is going to stand against that for any other studio.

Wednesday estimates.... The Revenant - $2.25m TFA - $1.95m

Avatar 2 should take December 2018 and hope that it is another groundbreaking hit. If it is, then perhaps if they really are going to release 1 every year, take Oct. 2019 and Dec. 2020.

I put this in another thread, but should have gone here. 20th Century Fox and Cameron couldn't put it anywhere near Star Wars even if they wanted to. It is more than a dick measuring contest, it is a logistics issue. There simply isn't the theater space (especially 3D screens) to accommodate 2 gigantic 3D releases like this. Star Wars has officially staked out December 2017 and Avatar would have to move no matter what or face making domestic theaters choose between it and Star Wars. The politics behind the scenes would be pretty funny. Who do you think film bookers are going to fear being leaned on, 20th Century Fox and their relatively mediocre slate of films or Disney that has the power of Lucasfilm/Marvel/Pixar/Disney Animation/Buena Vista behind it? The second that a film booker from any theater chain doesn't give it what it wants on Star Wars and want to give it to Avatar, they are going to say "ok, then when Avengers: Infinity War and Toy Story 4 come out next year, then you can pound sand while we withhold or reduce your usual allocation of prints from you and give extra screens to your competition. Still want to give those screens to 20th Century Fox and Avatar?" Avatar is going to have to find somewhere else to play that is a minimum of 4-6 weeks away from Episode VIII or Episode IX.

There are a bunch of theaters who are going to keep TFA a lot longer than most think. It will still be playing strong into April and think you will see relatively strong numbers keep coming in. No way it doesn't get to $950m and $1b still wouldn't surprise me, especially if they do something like get a strong bump in theaters by releasing 5 minutes of Rogue One with it.

I'm not saying you are wrong, but Disney has the biggest hammer on the block and they use it to get what they want and will continue to do so. It also isn't really playing dirty if all the other studios do it as well whenever they can. Weinstein also is notorious for their tactics and sort of got their ass handed to them on this one, but I agree it would be nice if they all played nicer.

FYI, theater owners and Disney already aren't happy with 20th Century Fox and the crap they pulled moving the Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked release date up to Dec. 18th at the last second. It cost some valuable screens (and $$) they had to allocate to that movie instead of adding additional shows for TFA.