EmpireCity

Pixar has only had one true critical bomb, and that was Cars 2 at 39%, but you have to remember that Cars is their 2nd lowest RT scored film at 74% fresh. Other than that, nothing they have made has fallen below 76% fresh. It is also amazing they have 3 other movies in that range (Good Dinosaur 76%, Brave 78%, Monsters University 78%), but everything else they have made is 92% or higher. I'm going to bet that Dory ends up in that 92% range or higher.

I think reviews and buzz matter quite a bit, especially in the social media age. Word of mouth spreads faster than ever. For example, if Jungle Book has mediocre reviews and buzz, I think it only opens to around $80m or so. If BvS had incredible buzz and reviews then it would have opened more in the $190m range and crossed $400m total. Finding Dory currently has great buzz and early reviews of the footage that was shown. If Disney marketing does its job and the reviews are in the 90% or higher range, then I don't think it is crazy to think it opens in the $140m+ range. It will have pretty much zero competition as it is 2 weeks clear of TMNT and the other wide releases are either weak or not any real threat. Toy Story 3 opened to $110m nearly 6 years ago. I don't see this opening any lower inflation adjusted.

Dory is as well. Inside Out opened to $90m and Dory has a lot more buzz and awareness going for it and it will only go up in the next 2 months.

I know that. You can put mine down as opinion and fact though. Rogue One is a lock for a $100m opening.

Rogue One is the most stone cold lock of the entire list.

I thought the same thing earlier today and pretty confident that it will looking at everything. $30m is the floor for Sunday.

It is still making money. Likely has another million left in it.

It is 10000% a poorly executed film thing with an unpopular director.

I'm being sarcastic. Sort of.

Keep the cast and use the technology to shoot a different movie.

Mid-May through Mid-June is going to disappoint. I think Dory will be huge and then my personal shocker of the summer is that ID4:R is a big 4 quad hit. Tarzan will bomb and Secret Life of Pets will be a big hit. Jason Bourne going to be a $250m hit.

Warner Bros. likely has no real choice but to scrap their entire project and use the money and technology to give Andy Serkis something better to do.

JB should be around $200m after 10 days of release with another 10 days of free run before Civil War opens. Could be around $280m by that time.

I didn't say bomb, I said disappoint. I think Now You See Me 2 is a sequel nobody asked for, much like Huntsman or Alice. The originals also did well, but think they were self contained movies that didn't call for a sequel or prequel and people aren't going to be nearly as interested in Now You See Me 2. X-Men is going to disappoint in my opinion because of some oversaturation, because of some older family audience split with Alice and because it is a X-Men movie with no Wolverine or older cast like Stewart or McKellan. I think it is closer to the draw of First Class than DOFP. It will make more than First Class, but think there are factors working against it. Ice Age may do fine internationally, but I think domestic it is hurt by Secret Life of Pets and diminishing intrest.

With the WOM and lack of competition, I think $60m is almost guaranteed.

Huntsman, Alice, Now You See Me 2, Warcraft, Tarzan and Ice Age all in the next few months. I think X-Men and Star Trek will disappoint as well.

I was following as a kid around 1992 or so.

It will be fun to see the WOM and how small the drop is next weekend for JB as I think Huntsman is going to be a huge bomb.

$41m Saturday for JB.

I haven't even posted in the last few days, so perhaps start there before you post that. Angry? Where?

It might end up #3 behind SS and Fantastic Beasts.

Bourne is pretty big overseas as well. I think it gets $500m+

Sorry, I forgot about Secret Life of Pets is Universal as well. If the reviews are pretty good on that, it is going to be huge. Neighbors 2 and Jason Bourne will be bigger than Huntsman. Warcraft is likely to make more money. Shit, even Popstar (which is legitimately hilarious) wouldn't shock me if it beat Huntsman.

Uh, what? Did you forget Jason Bourne is coming out in August and likely going to do around $225m+?

No, it is because I can do some pretty simple math and see that it is a lock for #7 at best and only needs a couple others to push it out of the Top 10. It has nothing to do with hating BvS.