EmpireCity

$16m Sunday

I think it ends up closer to $60m as the Saturday number is around $24.5m, so they are predicting a $14.5m Sunday. Don't see it dropping that low.

Agreed.

I didn't count Neighbors because it was expected to perform at a high level after This Is The End did well. I would qualify that as more of a breakout than Neighbors. Same thing with Superbad or 40 Year Old Virgin.

What? No.

That is overperforming, not a breakout.

It has a great shot. Could be at $240m after 10 days.

I would rather go with calling neither a breakout. No way am I going to define a $125m gross on a $90m budget a breakout.

It is amazing how you can take a handful of posters from here and HSX and they know 10000x more than any of the writers from the trades. Most end up stealing from here anyways.

$126m domestic (with Denzel) on a $90m budget? No way in my opinion. The Vow was $125m on a $30m budget and came out of left field.

Deadline is the absolute worst. They are always wrong and someone should keep a record of how far off their early estimates are.

Despicable Me The Help Ted 21 Jump Street The Vow Magic Mike Frozen Gravity The Conjuring We're The Millers American Sniper Straight Outta Compton

So many of these are not breakout movies. A breakout movie is one that is a huge surprise and the WOM causes it to run wild. Has to make roughly double the expectations AND have budget taken into consideration on some level and other various factors. For example, TFA and Gatsby are both not breakouts due to different reasons. TFA because there were quite a few expectations it would break the opening record and challenge or beat the all time domestic record. It was always going to be huge, but the level of huge was unknown. Gatsby was a pleasant surprise given the production, but it did $144m domestic off a roughly $125m budget with a giant movie star attached to it. Not a break out. Gravity and Deadpool are breakout movies for different and some similar reasons. Gravity and Deadpool were both almost experimental on some level and both massively overperformed when compared to their release date and expectations. WOM ended up allowing them to have great legs. One of them had huge stars but in non-traditional roles and the other had a guy virtually washed up on a studo/tentpole scale and desperate for a hit. I think movies like Jurassic World and Alice in Wonderland are borderline. Sort of breakout, but due to property and budgets they had a lot of factors going for them that hold them back from being true breakouts. My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Sixth Sense, The Hangover, Hunger Games are all good examples of breakout films.

The Witch is looking very strong for evening shows. Deadpool is still a monster all day long. Should be a great Friday for both of them.

Doesn't look like it.

You guys will like the Thursday number.

Completely disagree. There were quite a few calling for it to break the opening record and the all time domestic. This was 5 months before it came out. It is verified on other sites if you want to look back that far.

Nope. Deadpool is by far the biggest surprise. I would list the biggest surprises from the last year as this.... 1. Deadpool 2. American Sniper 3. Jurassic World 4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens Nobody* saw Deadpool doing $152m 4 day weekend. It was roughly double what the expectations were. Nobody* saw American Sniper opening to a massive $90m in January. Jurassic World was more about taking down the record, but there were more than a few that had it opening really high in the $180m - $190m territory. Same thing with Star Wars: The Force Awakens where numerous people had it opening in the $250m range and breaking the all time domestic record. Heck, a major Hollywood trade did a story months out about how numerous people thought it would go as high as $300m opening. Deadpool given all the factors is easily the biggest surprise. *nobody means 99% of people

I had to post after seeing the ridiculousness that The Matrix was a cult hit. Lol. No. That was a huge success from the start. Something like Rocky Horror, Clerks, The Big Lebowski, Office Space, They Live, etc.... are examples of cult classic movies.

Someone guessed it on page 155....

You guys are going to be happy today....

Sunday was overestimated by about $2.5m when the actuals come in. Should have about $132.5m 3 day.

Valentine's Day. 1st week of January. 1st week of October. 1st week of November. 3rd week of November. 3rd and 4th week of December. 1st and 3rd week of May. Sometime in June. Mid-July. 1st week of August. Basically any time not named late August, early September or 1st week of February.

Saturday estimate.... Deadpool - $42.5m

Lots and lots of theaters were caught with their pants down on this as well. Many scheduled as if it was some normal freaking February weekend and didn't have shows starting until later and ending earlier than they should have during a blockbuster weekend like this. A lot of demand was turned away this weekend, so the numbers could have even been stronger than they are.