EmpireCity

I just got back from seeing TG2 again in this quaint but technologically great 1 screen 80 seat theater in a tiny town. About 65 people in there and everyone went nuts. The theatrical experience is unmatched. It's magical.

How does $12.1m sound?

Yes. It is going to do well. Twitter is a cesspool and not even close to reality.

Where the Crawdad's Sing goes on sale 6/23. 3pm shows.

It looks like Monday should be around $11.5m. Very early and sort of a guess, but looks positive.

It is rated R.

What lawsuit? And lol.

So, didn't quite get to $30m after the very early numbers yesterday, but looks to be right around $29.25m or so. That would give Paramount their $90.05m opening weekend and headline.

The Chinese Communist Governement can eat shit.

Just think this has Father’s day and 4th of July to come still.

Sometimes, yes.

A whole lot of them. They aren't crazy figures. Again, I'll trust my judgement on this topic over a whole lot of others that have been dead wrong where the future of the industry was going. Also, "crazy figures" happen in this industry all the time. You can witness one of them this weekend.

As I stated before, your simple math example is that everyone who took their companies down the path of day and date and short windows and pre-announcing their streaming is now hitting the unemployment line while the theatrical guys (the adults in the room) are taking back over from the silly kids that cost their companies billions.

This right here is the core of the whole issue. There is really nothing to show that they gain or lose a single subscriber if they release it at Day 45 or Day 90 where it will remain literally forever. The core question is "What in the hell is the rush?" I can tell you this, there is no evidence that streaming is impacted (over what is lost) by putting it on there after 45 days vs. 90 days or 120 days. There is a mountain of evidence that actual billions have been lost by shoving them on streaming too early. It cost the leadership of an entire company (Warner Bros.) their jobs and likely is going to cost the leadership of Disney their jobs as well. I also would guess the leadership of Paramount+ is going to feel the heat very soon if the guy they brought in doesn' reverse course. Lucky for him that Tom Cruise likely did him a favor and saved his job.

Fine, then use The Batman as your example. That lost out on $50m-$70m in WW gross the second it was announced on streaming at 47 days or whatever. Now imagine if it was pre-announced as that. The impact would have easily been $100m+

I've seen Dune being used as the case study that day and date or 45 day window announced before wouldn't really hurt because "hey look, it made $400m worldwide!" Yeah, no shit, but if it wasn't on HBOMax day and date and has a 90 day or 120 day minimum and plays theatrically up to the Oscars, then it likely does closer to $550m - $600m WW. It got fucked because of piracy, the "free" release on HBOMax and the short window on the back end. It's the proof that day and date and pre-announced 45 day windows take a massive amount out of certain films, not the exhonoration.

Not every movie is going to be impacted the same and I have said multiple times (and you ignored) that it really affects the mega blockbusters.

Absolutely, and with a movie like TG2 I am saying it would have lost $300m in this scenario because less people watching it means far less word of mouth and far less of a chance of being a worldwide phenomenon. If Paramount would have said a month before TG2 came out that it would be on Paramount+ on July 9th, there is no way it becomes a $1b+ grosser. I have a hard time believing it reaches $800m in that scenario.

Of course it is, and the bigger the phenomenon of a movie, the more impact it would have. The Batman alone had a good $50m+ cut off its gross WW and that was with them not announcing the streaming until late.

Listen, there was no precedence that TG2 would make $1b+ WW and $600m+ domestic and anyone who would have predicted this would have been laughed at if the burden of "show me the evidence!!" was the standard of proof. I'm right about this like I am a whole lot of other similar things while many many have shit talked me and been hilariously wrong throughout the last couple years when it comes to day and date, shortened windows, streaming and theatrical being dead. I'll go off my experience and analysis and not worry too much that lorddemaxus thinks it is "Alex Jones" or whatever.

Top Gun: Maverick will lose its premium screens next week, but I can guarantee you right now that every single film booker in North America is planning on keeping nearly every screen of TG2 and not reducing their showtimes by much if anything. Downton Abbey 2, The Bad Guys, Bob's Burgers and others are the ones that are going to suffer this week, not TG2. The poor chaps from Universal are going to get slaughtered on their holdover films.

Here is the causation and correlation as well. The movies that have destroyed on a giant WW level had no pre-announced streaming plan and have had the longest exclusive theatrical window. It isn't an accident. It is also the reason that every moron who went with a day and date or short window strategy is getting canned or about to get canned.

I don't care if you take my word for it or not, but yes, I think certain movies such as TG2 would have 30% of their WW gross cut off if people know/knew it would be on "free" streaming in 45 days. We would not be looking at the same phenomenon as we are right now with TG2.