EmpireCity

Lol, and there are the sour grapes folks. This a few days after he was tagging me kissing my ass for calling Jumanji as going to be a huge hit before anyone else did.

That isn't true at all. You raved about it after the second viewing.

LOL!! Thank you for proving my point. Sheesh, for a guy that lives on a website that is obsessive about data and the tracking of an industry based on numbers and mathematics, to want to fall back on anecdotal is bizarre.

I sometimes give him shit for what he likes and doesn't, but this isn't about that. If he didn't like the film that would be more than fine, but the bipolar schitzo of HATED to LOVED to #NOTMYSTARWARS is absurd.

We? You got a mouse in your pocket?

Nobody said there is nothing to see. Go back and read the last 10 pages or so where people were having a rational discussion. Again, show me the WOM data. You are so positive of it, then show the data.

Lol. You HATED it to the point of anger, then you watched it like the next day and you borderline LOVED it, and then a few days later you HATED it and were destroyed by how much it disappointed you. That is as bipolar as it gets. You proved you aren't able to be even close to rational on the film.

You mean the weak Christmas Day where it and Jumanji had a nearly identical flip in estimates and then the next day Jumanji was down and The Last Jedi was back up? Again, show me your WOM data. Not what you and your buddies think, but show me actual data.

Apples and Oranges and you know that. Honestly, you are hard to talk to about any of this rationally because you went from hating The Last Jedi, to immediately really liking it and thinking it was great and then right back to freaking out and making ridiculous hashtags and writing a diatribe against it. The emotional swings you are having on the film are bizarre.

Not unless they negotiated that split with the studio. They have to play Downsizing and Father Figures at this point on a full schedule unless approved by Paramount or Warner Bros. They can't take away shows from those without risk of endangering their agreement. Sometimes theaters break that agreement and do it in hopes they don't get caught, but if they are going to take a show away it would be from Star Wars most likely at this moment unless they have an older film they can do it with.

That, as usual, is ridiculous. To believe that premise you would have to believe that even if The Godfather came out at the same time as a "better" Star Wars film that it wouldn't be competition.

We are discussing 2 different things here. I went off that morning and still do because this is a data based website combined with of course the gut feeling of gambling. That morning multiple people kept posting over and over and over the percentage of the audience scores every 2 minutes and screaming and pointing as they were rock solid evidence. This was at the start of a weekend that opened to $220m. It blows my mind that people who are so interested in the data will do something like that. There is still no actual evidence that I have seen to prove the terrible or even heavily mixed WOM for the movie. People are acting as if the percentages day to day are that evidence, but we are in an era where the data for December is still so young that it is incomplete. The calendar is weird and only happens about once every 12 years. It has a longer impactful running time. There is another monster break out crowd pleasing 30 minute shorter family film stealing away business. There is more traffic in the wide releases. It's much too early for anyone to declare victory, but the data still almost completely points toward the opposite direction of what the screaming click bait narrative has been. That is all I am saying with this and hope this helps people understand where exactly I am coming from.

It is because we are talking about measurable and reliable data, not feeling and gut reaction. You are pointing out anecdotal evidence, which is the absolute weakest and most unreliable form of "evidence" there is. For example, you can't say something might be mixed because your sister's best friends cousin has a boyfriend that didn't like it and neither did his friends. That isn't evidence. Run time is absolutely an issue and if you don't believe me go talk to anyone that schedules showtimes at a theater. It is one of the reasons that theaters jizzed in their pants when they heard that Dunkirk was only 1 hour 40 minutes instead of the standard 2 hours 30 minutes. See my post above for an example of how it has an effect on scheduling. This is also a crowded season. @TwoMisfits did get part of her post right last week when she pointed out that the extra screen shows had started to go to Jumanji. There is more traffic as far as movies required to be played goes this year compared to the last two years. Combine that with the longer running time and break out of Jumanji taking away family business and it adds up to less opportunity than the previous two years.

If anyone has any question of how even a 15 minute longer running time hurts, if you have 5 shows per day on a screen, that means you have to account for an extra 1 hour and 15 minutes during the day. Rogue One and The Force Awakens were able to have better start times for their early and late shows. The Last Jedi is having to start earlier and later to keep the same amount of sessions. It has a real effect on a film. How much is not entirely known, but if your early start time is 9:15am instead of 10:00am and your late show has to start at 11:15pm and ends at 2:00am instead of 10:30pm and ending at 1:15am, it causes people to not attend those shows.

Correct, I was arguing correctly that the audience ranking data was being manipulated and is highly anecdotal while the actual data showed the opposite. WOM is still fantastic for The Last Jedi by every actual scientific polling method. Even the box office is still great. There is still no actual data other than people pointing and screaming LOOK OVER THERE!! that the WOM is poor.

You guys are talking about CinemaScore which is mildly accurate and semi-scientific, but what he meant is ComScore which is much more accurate and scientific.

No big deal, I like a good back and forth with you IronJimbo.

The two things most hurting The Last Jedi are running time and a certified $300m+ breakout of another shorter crowd pleasing family choice. It was evident on Christmas Day and is now evident this weekend. Jumanji has broken through to mini-phenomenon level and is simply sucking up all the late breaking family business on the Holiday and the weekend.

These posts are all inaccurate and falsely categorize what I posted. Not surprising given most aren't able to discuss outside of 140 characters at this point in time. Again, we have people on here saying that Episode 9 will make less than $450m, The Last Jedi is somehow a disappointment overall, Star Wars might be dead, etc... I'll gladly let the people decide which is more accurate when it comes to what people post or discuss. Nobody is ever 100% accurate with box office and if you were then you are a dumbfuck if you aren't a billionaire. It is like a more accurate version of sports gambling, but still a crapshoot. With all that, again, the posts above are categorically false and intentionally misrepresent what was being discussed that morning. Not surprising.

I log on today and see that now Episode 9 is being predicted under $450m domestic. Lol. Keep up the good work.

2 hours vs. 2 hours 30 minutes is a huge reason. The fact that anyone can walk into Jumanji and know what is going on without having seen a single other movie is also a factor.

Lol

It's pretty easy to see what is happening at this point, when the family time of the Holiday or weekend hits, families are choosing Jumanji as their pick. The weekdays are much more favorable to The Last Jedi. I think the trend continues through Tuesday and then The Last Jedi should move back to first choice.

I posted on here this summer that I thought it would follow Night at the Museum with the same calendar set up and could get to $250m+ It was pretty easy to see after the CinemaCon footage it would be huge. They showed much more than in the trailers and it played very well.

Not your fault, most of us don't really count the prequels as Star Wars movies.