EmpireCity

Ignore what I said here, forgot to factor in Sunday leading into a holiday. Sub 55% drop would be the target.

That is set in place before the movie opens, not after.

Theaters already had a ton of space and are going to keep most of it for Black Panther with only 2 lower grossing movies opening and being able to clear out low grossing hold over films. Pretty good chance that it could pull a sub 50% drop.

Correct, many of us on here had it $185m+ for the 4 day but going to $240m+ is another level. People expected it to be huge, but it vaulted into the cultural phenomenon level.

Usually when a film doesn't have any real name recognition to drive it forward if it is only mediocre. It might do it, but the film is mediocre and don't see $100m in it.

It isn't good enough to do that.

I have been saying for over a year I expected this to be a gigantic watershed cultural movie. The last few months I felt it would go $185m+ for the 4 day, so to see it heading towards $215m+ is incredible.

This is going to do very, very well for them. I think can do $200m+

Yeah, this movie is great and could do very well if Paramount can get their head out of their ass.

Yeah.... no. Mel Gibson is back to making Oscar nominated movies, so this will hardly do anything to Tarantino besides him apologizing for anything.

Yeah, that was quite the hatchet job to include that in under the guise of Weinstein.

Probably shove a blu-ray copy of Avatar up your ass.

This is why you have someone like me to tell you $610k feels about right.

If they say they have 7 months of free cash that means they likely have half that.

I would bet it goes to 1,400+ theaters this week. It pretty much would have to as the schedule gets crowded after that.

You guys talking about Get Out and Dunkirk as failures in re-release are out of your mind. They didn't get a full run at most any theater, they got spot shows at best. You can't compare 1 show per day in the early or late round to a full run with 4-5 shows per day.

It also isn't good that Sully looks like Mad Max: Fury Road compared to this movie in terms of action.

This is not a good movie and woof can they not act. This was little more than Warner Bros. wanting to finance for relatively cheap what Eastwood wanted to do as he doesn't have many films left.

Nope. $9.5m and $7.6m

I don't know if everyone is joking about Black Panther opening and not going to go back through everything, but the tracking and pre-sales are off the charts good. It won't shock me if it does $170m+ for the 4 day.

It actually should be flat or maybe a percentage up for the weekend. The Deadline numbers were a bit low. I would guess it should pass $20m by next Thursday 2/1 and then I would guess that Neon will give it the widest expansion. Maybe they go 1,400+ theaters and that give it another $3m+ next weekend and is sitting around $23m by 2/5. This should have enough juice over the next month to get around $30m+ possibly.

Moviepass didn't make a bold move, they showed their ass and all of their cards and now the industry knows they are fucked (not that they didn't know it already).

I forgot to add, same thing with the Netflix comparisons. If you pay Netflix $11.99 per month and you stream a couple studio movies, those costs are pennies. You would have to watch an insane amount of outside content to be actually costing them money outside of their standard business costs of tech and infrastructure. The licensing payment is fairly insignificant. Again, with moviepass if someone uses it once they have lost money. This was an obvious ploy from the start to make a splash, gain data, wedge themselves in as a middle man, and then hope they grew powerful enough that they could strong arm theaters into giving over a percentage of their profits. It didn't work and the anger from 3m-4m customers is going to be ugly when they announce they are either shutting down, raising prices or completely changing the terms of the deal.

I also have said for a long time that it appears they thought they could do some sort of gym membership model, but the difference there is if someone pays $9.99 per month and shows up to the gym every single day they only cost that gym pennies. It might take a few weeks before their actual financial impact on a gym adds up to $9.99 in costs. With moviepass, if someone pays $9.99 per month and shows up to use it even once they have immediately lost money on that customer. If they show up 10 times in the month they need 10-15 other customers to pay $9.99 and NEVER use the pass to break even. Their model is set up where they need millions and millions of subscribers to join and never ever ever use the membership to cover even a small percentage that use it regularly.

Or, that theater could simply offer their own subscription service and cut out the middle man. I think that is where this is headed if moviepass doesn't completely collapse first. It will collapse though, we are only a month past the Holiday season where they saw a huge influx of subscribers and cash and instead of enhancing or continuing their program, they are actually already cutting it and signaling to the world they are about to have major cash problems. Their announcement at Sundance that they are going into distribution reeks of a desperation move to coax theaters into thinking they are going to have content that MoviePass will offer up to theaters and have some sort of deal cut on the revenue split. It is ironic that they shove themselves into the game as a middle man but then almost immediately try to implement a strategy that aims to cut out the middle man of studios and distributors by becoming one themselves. This is going to fail spectacularly and all they will have done is damage the theater industry long term.