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In terms of surpise, Avatar surely takes the cake. In terms of magnitude, scale and scope, TFA will eclipse it by a significant margin, and is historically on the order of a very small number of films (Titanic, ANH, etc.) And to be fair, very few here predicted TFA would beat Avatar, let alone flirt with $1B. It's opening and legs combination is surely defying any expectations most of us have ever had about how a film can perform at the box office. In the age of the mega opening weekend, this kind of run is totally unprecedented.

Two observations: 1) George Lucas really screwed the pooch with those prequels. It's clear that the box office potential of the Star Wars property simply has no equal--nothing even in its same league. 2) If actuals come in around 158 (I think they do), it means TFA shattered the old opening weekend record by about 19%, and the second weekend record by about 50%. Adjusted for inflation, this movie has a strong chance at surpassing Titanic's first run. TITANIC.

Personally, I think Saturday AND Sunday are being low-balled, and we'll get close to $160M (more like $158M or $159M) when it's all said and done.

Yeah. Those statements are crap. Star Wars is basically the modern West's form of mythology. Cultural DNA status.

Although it's not perfect, the best comparison to TFA's domestic run so far is most definitely Avatar. The LOTR films dropped off way faster than this behemoth during the holiday frame. If you look at TFA's drops and bumps (minus previews), it looks a LOT like Avatar, just a bit weaker. It obviously won't match Avatar's x10 multiplier, but x4 has to be just about locked at this point, and x5 is a strong possibility. I'm beginning to think TFA gets to about $1.15B domestically. This movie is playing well to all ages and genders, is extremely well received, and has no competition for the entire winter. Kids also love it, and that can carry a film for a LOOONG time. Internationally, I think it matches its domestic haul, or comes up a hair short (minus China). China's a wild card, though. If it adds $200M, I think we're looking at an OS take of about $1.3B, and a WW haul of $2.4B to $2.5B. In short, Titanic is toast, and Avatar is fortunate the exchange rates have turned on their heads over the past five years. (Though if Avatar released in this sort of market, China probably would have carried it to $2.7B anyway)

Word. I think this is the most likely outcome. That said, the Christmas Eve hold and soft Christmas Day bump are interesting. They suggest to me that there is a small possibility that TFA is basically maximizing revenue from its supply of showings. Christmas Eve tapered off because it ran out of shows in the evening, and Christmas Day saw only a "mild" bump because of constrained supply in the morning. That's a very rose colored theory, but it does somewhat explain the movie's odd behavior (at least in comparison to Avatar) over those two days.

I'd be content with $55M. Happy with $60M. Back into an all too familiar state of exhausted jubilance with TFA at $65M.

The sense of scale here is like those infographics your wannabe science nerd friend posts on Facebook where they compare the size of the planets to show you how big Jupiter is, and then suddenly zoom out to show the Sun. TFA is practically a vertical line there. Just crazy.

Crazy fanboi theory of the day. SW7 Christmas numbers were limited by restricted number of showtimes. With supply at full capacity today, and Boxing Day in Canada, we see a 30% increase!

I'm a bit bullish. I see: $1.1B Domestic $1.4B OS $2.5B WW. Avatar is still definitely in play depending on 1) China and 2) domestic final gross.

Unless you're in line.

It'd be really entertaining if a huge proportion of what would have been opening weekend demand just had Christmas pegged as their day to see it, and we see some ridiculous number today.

It's been stated elsewhere, but $1.1B domestic puts Avatar WW in jeopardy with the typical 40% domestic / 60% OS box office split. Crazy idea when a billion domestic seemed impossible. Now it doesn't seem impossible, and may in fact be LIKELY pending this weekend's results. Nothing is out of play for TFA yet.

At what point does a strong domestic run put Avatar WW back into play? I say $1.1B domestic.

Best to predict with your head, not with your heart, I agree. Unfortunately, this weekend is one of the rare weekends when my head is telling me a movie will significantly outperform what my gut will allow me believe. Even $150M is already so much higher than any other second weekend, it's hard to believe it will get to that number. But if you look solely at the patterns of its performance so far, $170M - $185M stands up to scrutiny.

You're using an arbitrarily assumed "ceiling" of demand, and working backwards from that to posit heavier-than-Avatar drops. But doesn't it make more sense to let the evidence guide your analysis? If there's a ceiling for demand, the drops (holds) so far clearly indicate that SW7 hasn't hit it.

I think the mental stop we all have is that, if it continues to hold and drop like Avatar, this weekend--TFA's SECOND weekend--would basically be the fifth best OPENING weekend of all time. It's hard to say that and feel like you aren't joking.

On gut instinct, I think I'm right there with you. The one thing I can't reconcile is why it hasn't shown any signs of burning off demand during the week. Indicators like its Sunday to Wednesday drop are essentially equal to Avatar's. It's Sunday to Christmas Eve Thursday drop is even stronger than Avatar's, and Avatar was more of an adult-skewing film than SW7. That Christmas Eve hold suggests an explosion of business today. It's actually the best indicator to me so far that the this movie has sustained demand from the past weekend. The Wednesday increase is also another sign that this movie is perhaps doing business at some theoretical market limit for each one of these days. I think $160M is a reasonable number for this weekend, but with this movie, we can't really predict anything until credible evidence starts rolling in later today.

I can't bring myself to predict anything over $150. It just doesn't seem possible for such a big opener to be that leggy. But it's seven days in and this thing has been leggier than frigging Avatar, and history suggests that the post-Christmas week is a bigger performer than pre-Christmas. So like you I really have no idea what to predict. This run so far is unlike anything I've ever seen. You must unlearn what you have learned.

If it sticks with Avatar's rises and drops, it will flirt with $60M tomorrow.

Oh come on. That number is absurd. If you asked me on Monday morning, I would have figured 28 for the Wednesday number. This is thing is figuring to be flat compared to last weekend (minus previews).

I love this post simply because it's been said about every single box office phenomenon I've seen in the 19 years I've been tracking BO as a hobby. You're absolutely right in what you're implying. There's no good reason this movie should be shattering records. It must be some collective delusion. It always is. Just like it was for Titanic, The Avengers, Jurassic World, Avatar...

Bold prediction: it will flirt with Avatar.

Not so sure about this. If SW7 gets to around $1.1 Billion domestically, Avatar WW is definitely in play. A 40/60 domestic to overseas split would give the movie $2.75 Billion WW at that point.

37-39 just doesn't seem possible. It has to drop from discount Tuesday, doesn't it? Doesn't it?? WTF does this weekend look like?