LinksterAC

I used XE.com Where do your numbers for Canada come from? I can't find any Canada-only BO numbers. The best guess I could make was to take the Canadian BO as a proportion of the NA BO based on poulation. Canada = 36 million, USA + Canada = 358 million. Based on that, Canada is roughly 10% of the North American Box Office. I'm happy to use a better source if you've got one. And, finally, I compared only exchange rates because you asked me to. I agree there are other variables in play, though, due to 3D share, I doubt that ticket price inflation is actually much of a factor here. I did look at other small markets throughout Asia and Latin America (I made no claim that China, Brazil, and Russia are small markets). They are tiny, and their XR situation is generally BAD. Latin America, in particular, is having a tough go of it. Edit: Please note that the list of countries in the spreadsheet above represents only a fraction of all the movies I looked at. The full list is just too long to share, and the smaller list gets the point across.

DISCLAIMER: I love both Avatar and TFA. Two of my favorite movies of the past ten years. I also love both of their BO runs. Both equally impressive in their own ways. I actually went through and made a spreadsheet relating 2010 XR to 2016 XR, and converting TFA's grosses between the two. I looked at rates on Jan 15 2010 vs Jan 15 2016. For every single currency. For every single market. The skinny is that exchange rate fluctiations from 2016 to 2010 have cost TFA roughly $400M in WW gross up to this point, and roughly $360M in OS gross. That means that at 2010 exchange rates, TFA would be sitting at about $2.3B globally right now, with another $80M to collect domestically, another $40M from China, and another $90M from other markets. So, I was wrong when I said TFA could finish at $2.7B at Avatar's XR. It would be more like $2.5B. Still, an enormous WW haul that puts TFA very much in Avatar's neighborhood. Another curious thing was that many of the so-called "expanding markets" in Latin America and Asia are either 1.) tiny, 2.) suffered the worst XR hits agains the USD (LOOK AT ARGENTINA!), or 3.) both things at once. Some of the big examples are as follows (adding up to $289M WW, including Canada, where they use a different currenty than the United States): The Force Awakens Country Gross (M, USD) 2010 XR Gross Difference 2010 to 2016 Russia $24 $64 $39.7 Canada (est.) $86 $125 $38.5 Brazil $25 $57 $31.8 Germany $96 $127 $30.5 France $77 $101 $24.5 United Kingdom $164 $187 $22.9 Australia $58 $79 $21.6 Japan $69 $89 $20.0 Argentina $7 $26 $18.7 Venezuela $16 $34 $18.5 Mexico $26 $38 $11.6 Spain $33 $43 $10.5

I PM'd you, @IronJimbo, @Telemachos, @Baumer, and @MovieMan89. Enjoy my hard work.

It's trolling because Tele (and other mods) have repeated their message a million times, and you flout that request more than anybody: Let it go here. Take it elsewhere.

Go to the appropriate thread on the OS board and I'll be happy to tell you.

Let it go Jimbo. You've got to let it go. TFA beat Avatar in the USA, by a country mile. Avatar won globally in US dollars, again by a country mile. It's really difficult to compare the two markets. Exchange rates are dramatically different, the global market has changed. You can make a compelling argument that TFA would have grossed $2.7B with 2010 ER. You could also make a strong argument that Avatar would have grossed $3B WW if China's market was what it is today. But, in the end, that's not the point of this thread. Take that argument elsewhere. This a thread about domestic daily numbers and talk of TFA's domestic dominance is totally appropriate here. Please stop trolling.

The topic of WW gross is also tiresome, and doesn't belong here. Avatar fan boys just can't get over the fact that TFA is having an historic run on its own merits.

I said WW, not OS. And take it to anther thread.

But I was going to Tosche station to pick up some power converterrrrs.

There's no question Titanic sold more tickets than TFA has or will. Where did I suggest otherwise?

Yes.

Because German ticket prices, measured in Euros, have inflated faster than US ticket prices measured in dollars? Some markets have certainly expanded, but I doubt Germany is one of them. And, yes, markets change, but if we are trying to talk about revenue, it's probably better to measure each OS gross in its native currency to get an idea of the actual success of the film there. Not trying to knock Avatar. I absolutely love that film. But if it released today, even with expanded markets in some regions, it wouldn't come close to matching its own gross if you are measuring in US dollars. The ER situation is significantly different. No doubt in native currencies, it would blow Avatar 2009 out of the water.

Exchange rates make the comparison incredibly difficult. Avatar had an amazing WW run, but TFA would have to sell between 20-30% more tickets OS to match its gross due to ER alone, and 4% more DOM due to the free fall in the Canadian dollar. I think if you could look at tickets sold globally, it would probably end up pretty even between TFA and Avatar.

ESB (****) TFA (***1/2, a better acted, better directed, better written, better produced cousin of ANH) ROTJ (***1/2) ANH (***) ROTS (***) TPM (**) AOTC (*1/2) I've got to say, there's not a ton separating the top three. I wasn't around in 77 for ANH's release. The first time I watched it as an eleven year old, I had already seen great action blockbusters like JP. It wasn't a groundbreaking achievement for me, just a very entertaining adventure that was clearly filmed on a budget. ESB was the movie that got me totally hooked, and is as re-watchable to me as any of my favorite movies (LOTR, TDK, ESB form that group). TFA is very much of the same DNA as ANH, but just done a significantly better. It's actually a pretty powerful film on its own merits, that I think it will grow on all of us after some times passes, and we stop trying to compare it to the original three, particularly ANH. ROTS is solid, powerful, and easy to rewatch. TPM and AOTC are a purposeful blur in my memory, aside from the lightsaber duels and the music.

In summary: Everything has a healthy drop except the Oscar hopefuls and Star Wars. Mildly interesting that Star Wars should see a bump on this Thursday.

I'm with you on this. I see a $25M 3-day.

Between Canada and the rest of the world, ER issues are probably deflating the WW haul by 20 to 25 percent compared to films released between 2008 and 2014. TFA is a global juggernaut.

Yeah, definitely what I meant. Hence the light Sunday drop I've got shown.

I would love for you to be right, but that would be a big break from what it's been doing so far.

I don't know. If it's at about $3M on Thursday, as you say: Friday: $6M 100% Sat: $11M ~80% Sun: $9M -20% That's a $26M 3-day. Are you thinking a better than 100% Thursday to Friday?

Shaping up for a $25M 3-Day over the next weekend. Looks like 950 is the limit.

The irony of the exchange rates is that they're even hurting the domestic gross. How? Canada! The Canadian dollar has lost about 40% to the American dollar in the past six years. Canada's BO is about 10% of the NA BO. If we were exchanging at 2010 rates, even the domestic gross would be 3 to 4 percent higher.

I watched Ex Machina this week on Amazon Prime. Laughed when I saw Gleeson ("Hey, that's Hux!") and then had a bit of a twilight zone moment when they introduced Oscar Isaac.

It's going over $2B without China. It'll be damn near $1B domestic when it's all said and done (I think it goes over), and the international legs (minus China) have started to far outstrip the domestic legs. It already has a significant lead internationally. It may get to $2.1B+ without China. It will have to be an absolutely era-defining film to make the $700M it needs from China to eclipse Avatar. It's not going to happen. From a purely entertainment standpoint, it's really too bad about the exchange rates when compared to 2010. They've hurt both TFA's domestic (-40% in Canada) and international totals. This would be a very fun race for #1 WW in 2010 exchange rates. Current numbers could look something like this: $796M Domestic (+4% from Canada) $974M OS (+20%) $1.75B already without China! Would have been a lot of fun to track.

Well, yesterday, actually. January 6. The specific day it passed Avatar. It's funny, because the whole reason I started tracking BO was to see TPM pass Titanic, a movie I despised as an eleven year old Star Wars fan boy. A couple decades later, and I love both Titanic AND Avatar. Yet this is still somehow satisfying. The kid inside me is jumping around with joy.