LinksterAC

Says who?

I have a hard time seeing how it does worse than RO's multiplier of 3.43.

Are you using CPI inflation or ticket price inflation?

Much of SoCal is just starting its break and won’t be back in school until Jan. 8.

Inflation gains are probably another year or two away from cancelling out the exchange rate loss to the Euro. That’s assuming exchange rates stay where they are, and don’t drop to early 2017 levels (in which case it could take another eight years). So basically Avatar 2 has to equal Avatar’s number of tickets sold to get within shouting distance of its predecessor’s WW gross. Maybe it can do that, but it will take some serious JC magic. I’m not counting him out, because he’s a visionary who pushes the medium technically (while consistently telling good stories). That said, I think the original Avatar was a perfect storm of things that’s unlikely to be repeated given the movie’s tepid imprint on popular culture in the years since its release, and the broad adoption of its benchmark technology by the rest of the industry. It’s no Titanic in terms of its cultural impact, and its sequels won’t likely be the must-see technical showcase it was. Calling $3B the floor is unrealistic in my mind. Maybe for the cumulative WW gross of two of the sequels.

I saw TLJ yesterday, and as a lifelong Star Wars fan, I definitely had some problems with it that I think other SW die-hards will share. I also wouldn't be surprised if repeat viewings eventually turn this into one of my favorite movies in the series. It gave me a lot to think about, and I'm eager to see it again. That said, it's an undeniably well-made movie, and I think general audiences are going to lap it up. My wife is as GA as they get, and it's probably her favorite Star Wars movie. I doubt it's going to see bad legs, and I'm not surprised its first true Friday is so similar to its predecessor. I don't think it'll match TFA, but with a longer holiday period than in 2015, and such positive impressions from general audiences, it won't see a huge drop-off. I put it's over O/U line domestically at Avatar.

It's hard to know much from this preview number, given that the best IM comparisons (TFA and RO) land it anywhere between $190M and $240M. I'm reserving judgment until the Friday numbers come in.

Fourth for me. ESB TFA ROTJ R1 ANH ROTS TPM AOTC

Nothing about this number makes me think it won't land around Civil War's opening weekend number. The TFA previews need to be thrown out of the conversation, in my humble opinion. That movie is the definition of a blockbuster outlier.

I never thought about it, but you've got a point. Adjusted for inflation, Finding Nemo sits at $528M. CW will probably end up around $450M. It should be a good race.

Episode 8 is going to be massive. If the drop from VII to Episode VIII is proportional to the drop from I to II, you're looking at a $675M domestic haul. TFA is much better received the TPM was. $675M really has to be viewed as a very low-end prediction for this film. CW's weekend is fantastic.

As far as I'm concerned, this was a huge win for Marvel. Christopher Markus and Steven McFeely (screenwriters for CW) had an interview on IGN where they mentioned how the MCU has finally earned the right to incorporate several characters into a movie and still have it make sense without a lot of exposition. This is the dream scenario. Cap 3 won't be the last "solo" film that shows multiple MCU characters. Ragnarok will feature Hulk, the new Spider-Man will include Tony Stark, and to me it looks like Black Panther will include Captain America and The Secret Avengers (or some reasonable facsimile). In short, Marvel must be licking its lips. They have a scenario now where they can annually produce a "mini-Avengers" move that will have the drawing power a solo outing couldn't have. CA3 opening this big can be viewed as nothing but a huge positive for them.

It's certainly the one I'm most interested in. I saw TJB on Friday and was so pleasantly surprised by how good it was that I'll almost definitely check out Disney's adaptation of BATB. They are building a nice reputation for these live action adaptations.

Received well, this movie could be challenging the OW of Avengers or JW, particularly over a holiday weekend. After Star Wars, nothing in pop culture captivates America like these two characters. It's looking like a huge opening, but certainly nowhere near this property's potential.

Superb hold for Star Wars. Late legs like this will net it an "extra" $10M vs. what I was projecting. $940M instead of $930M. Fantastic run. I actually saw it on Sunday again. I took both my parents. Their first time in general, and my first time in IMAX 3D. Of the six viewings I've had, this format was actually the most enjoyable. Surprising since I'm generally not a fan of 3D.

Because ER is purely a function of the currency you measure in. It's arbitrary, independent of the movie market, and therefore the easiest thing to adjust for. Measure in Canadian dollars and come back to me. Star Wars has grossed almost $1.275B Canadian domestically. Avatar? Still $760M. I don't think that's a very informative comparison of their two runs. Do you?

Great hold for TR and TFA. $11M was about what I predicted for TFA before I saw how many theaters it lost. I then reconsidered down to 9.5. $10.8M is a really strong number.

Yes. It's essentially stayed flat on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday so far.

Better than I expected for TFA. It's shaping up for a $10M+ weekend and a very strong hold. It looks like that storm had a pretty significant effect on last weekend.

Very cool. I wish my French were better. 337 million admissions for Avatar! What a run! That number in India is unreal! Next closest movie I can see is The Avengers at 205 million.

Also, it won't happen, but it would have been hilarious if TFA got to around 960M or 970M domestically. Then you could have made the argument that it only missed $1B because of a weak Canadian dollar.

My poutine and Molson trio at La Belle Provence has never been cheaper! Booking a flight to Montréal right now. I can even tip the strippers in toonies instead of loonies this time around. #feelingrich #godsavethequeen But seriously, your numbers are about right. The exchange rate thing has really gotten out of hand since the summer.

The exchange situation is worthy of a Charles Barkley "turrible, just turrible." Unless, that is, you'll be traveling in Europe in a few months like I am. Then those hash brownies in Amsterdam come at an automatic 33% discount compared to 2010. But yeah, too bad for TFA.

I agree. But wasn't Titanic the largest film in most of these markets for a long time? There's no question Hollywood films perfrom better abroad than foreign films perform in the USA.

Very interesting. Never ceases to amaze me just how big the US market movie market is. Titanic for example: Euro 36 (which includes large markets like Germany, GB, and France) shows 111 million admissions. The USA? 128 million admissions. We really love our movies here.