If it gets to $1 Billion domestic, it's got a chance at Avatar that's heavily dependent on China's performance.
If it gets to $1.1 Billion domestic, I think Avatar WW is toast.
Unfortunately, Canada has suffered more from the currency exchange rate vs. the dollar than just about anywhere. This will actually have a mild effect on TFA's domestic gross.
You underestimate the power of the exchange rate. No way it finds another 750 million DOLLARS. China is by far the largest expanding market, and it hasn't expanded that much.
I think that if it gets to $1.15 billion domestic (big IF, I know), Avatar WW is totally in play. It would be a 60/40 OS to domestic split.
Even the most U.S.-centric blockbusters in recent years (The Dark Knight Rises, for example) had around a 60/40 OS to domestic split.
Looking at Monday multipliers, this one seems headed for $1 Billion.
What will the overseas to domestic split look like for this movie? Out of the gate it's already 53 to 47, but that doesn't include a huge market in China.
If it's ultimately 60/40, SW7 needs about 1.16 billion domestically to match Avatar WW. That's with exchange rates heavily favoring the US dollar, and therefore hurting the overall BO cume. I wouldn't say it's likely, but it seems possible given that SW7 looks more and more like a billion dollar domestic grosser with each passing day.
I stopped posting about box office after the Box Office Mojo forums went the way of the dodo. Not surprised that this is the run that brings me back. Absolutely epic so far.