XXR vs XXR

Those TET showtimes before the 13th are definitely a mistake. There’s no indication anywhere else that they’re doing any kind of early access (and it really wouldn’t make sense given what they’re trying to achieve with the “event” feel).

As of right now it's not confirmed for release anywhere but the US, Canada and Mexico.

Nope. AMC is the main distributor but any theater that agrees to terms can have it. All the major/mid-major ones already do.

Ahh ok. The "FRIDAY" next to the numbers made me thinking you were comping against their true OD.

As expected. If there's no traditional marketing campaign, there will be a (relatively) major lull in ticket sales unless Taylor herself goes on the promotional train. Given her history, that typical means 1 post a week at most and as I previously mentioned she may not even care too much about promoting this movie with 1989 TV coming out 2 weeks later.

@TheFlatLannister What do the TET OD comps look like against those same films previews?

@keysersoze123 When you did your last Barbie previews MTC1 run, how late in the evening was it? Feels like that may be a good final comp against Eras Tour OD if it was late enough, because there shouldn't have been much walkup after the run. FWIW, Eras Tour is already 78% ahead of that number revenue wise (as of 15 hours ago). Barbie previews ended up being about $20.5M not including EA, so even if you discount TET by 15% for the currently heavy MTC1 skew that should still puts it at ~$30-32M already for Friday OD.

I mean, this seems like the perfect event to check out what she's all about or if you're just a "oh yea I know some of her songs" type person it's much more financially feasible to pay $25 for ticket to this than $500 for her concert.

Ehh, I don't want this thread to devolve into a battle of who was "bigger" between the biggest musicians in history, because there's no good way to quantify things and more importantly her career and this film have nothing to do with MJ, The Beatles or anyone else.

That just seems really low given where sales are at already and adjusting for ATP. Correct me if I’m wrong but your unadjusted T-1 MCU comps are already at ~$25M?

Not confident, no. They may not originally planned a traditional marketing campaign but now that it looks like this could be a top 10 all time opening they may try to pick it up soon.

As a side note to growth patterns and sales rates, keep in mind that this will not likely have any kind of standard promotion (i.e commercials) so there will be a bit of a boom and bust cycle as Taylor promotes the film intermittently. Perhaps they’ll have a more mainstream marketing attack in the final week or two to give the GA an idea of what’s happening.

@vafrow My expectation is to expect most everyone to at least be singing. There will be some level of dancing I’m sure but it’ll be severally muted compared to the actual concert. And to clarify, this is her full concert. No documentary footage intertwined (except maybe at the beginning as a lead in.)

It appears that our page has made it into the realm of TS Twitter, as I’ve now seen us referenced in several tweets 😅

It's important to remember that while ATP is much higher, it's also losing essentially a full day vs other major films. I'm more interested in the FSS numbers of major blockbusters as targets than including previews. From that perspective, I think it could go as high as #2 all-time.

I don’t think it’s going to beat Endgame (my current target is about $180M) but I just want to clarify that the film wouldn’t need to cross out of her fandom and fandom-adjacent family to do so. Based on available data, she averages about 21-22 million unique listeners each day across all platforms domestically. Over 50 million people tried to buy tickets to her domestic dates of her actual tour. Over 60 million people domestically listen to at least 1 song of hers a month. She would “only” need to sell about 17 million tickets OW to dethrone Endgame. She has the fanbase to do it, if enough decide they’re interested in this particular endeavor.

Endgame's FSS was just over $297M sooooo..... 👀

$19.89 and $13.13 are minimums for standard shows, but several places are charging more and of course PLF is even higher. Like I mentioned earlier, I paid $25.89 before taxes/fees for my IMAX tickets.

Idk yet just how big this will open but FTR..... Biggest DOM OW - Previews Avengers: Endgame - $297,115,007 Avengers: Infinity War - $218,698,183 Spider-Man: No Way Home - $210,138,569 Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $190,966,675 Jurassic World - $190,306,270 Marvel's The Avengers - $188,738,708 Black Panther - $176,803,951 Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $175,009,584 The Lion King (2019) - $168,770,759 The Incredibles 2 - $164,187,905

@Relevation I think your ATP's are low. Based on the ATP averages Keyser and Inception are showing for their respective tracking areas, it looks like it could be pushing $21 and since pricing is locked, there shouldn't be much variance as we move forward in the sales cycle.

Domestically, yes.

It was, until Taylor Swift happened....

Knowing her history, she will do something to prop this up even higher unless of course her and the team are solely focused on 1989 TV which drops 2 weeks after the film comes out. The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to believe this COULD challenge for at least the 2nd biggest DOM OW ever. It would likely get there with about the same amount of tickets sold as Barbie OW. I think it all just comes down to how hard she promotes to and pushes through her fanbase.

I know everyone is aware that ATP will be higher than normal, but something important to remember about this entire weekend is that there is ZERO discounted prices anywhere. No matinee prices, no specials or deals. Whatever the price is at 7PM on Friday, it'll be the same at 10AM on Saturday or Sunday. Friday's ATP vs an equivalent 2023 blockbuster's Thursday ATP may end up only being 30-40% higher on average, but Saturday/Sunday could literally have double the ATP in some chains. Just keep that in mind when you're prognosticating ticket sales vs actual box office.

I don't think it was ever an option for anyone to pass on it. I believe her and her team avoided the studios on purpose due to the strike.