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XXR vs XXR

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Everything posted by XXR vs XXR

  1. XXR vs XXR
    it makes sense that the little bit of promotion the VMAs provided, didn’t move the needle much. The show was watched by less than 1 million people. Until Taylor herself promotes again or we start seeing a traditional multi level, promotional campaign, I don’t expect any kind of relevant change.
  2. XXR vs XXR
    www.twitter.com/cinemex/status/1701777969629245524s=46&t=rbAgZDpp5fCFxIZgU8cykA
  3. XXR vs XXR
    They just did the first commercial (that I've seen) for The Era's Tour movie during the VMA's. Taylor has already won twice tonight and will likely win 6-7 total awards, so she's trending all over Twitter right now. Curious if we see any kind of noticeable boost. EDIT: I also see that her team (TaylorNation) is promoting it on Twitter/IG.
  4. XXR vs XXR
    These numbers are for October 21st and they're 52.3% of OD or of October 20th?
  5. XXR vs XXR
    The VMA's are on Tuesday and she's nominated for 11 awards. She'll probably win 6-8 of them. I wonder if she will mention the film during an acceptance speech (there is a Show of the Summer award she'll likely win which is for The Era's Tour itself). If she does mention it, I wonder what kind of boost that would give current sales.
  6. XXR vs XXR
    Maybe it was all a computer glitch from the jump and none of the sales were real. That would explain the lack of interest/care.
  7. XXR vs XXR
    Answered my own question. Looks like 6PM+ made up about 54% of ticket sales for Barbenheimer. True Friday for them was $70.7M so 54% of ticket sales would amount to ~$38M but since evening ATP would have been higher than earlier showtimes, it's probably more like $43-45M for the 6PM+ shows. Once we adjust for TET's higher average ATP, we're probably looking at $55-65M for TET Friday depending on theatrical splits as a ratio of MTC1.
  8. XXR vs XXR
    Do we know the % of tickets Barbenheimer sold during the referenced timeframe above VS their total for true Friday? We can probably just apply a simple formula for OD estimates with that number, based on the capacity restrictions you outlined.
  9. XXR vs XXR
    I'll happily take a frontloaded MCU level of presales-to-OW ratio for TET. Jat probably knows better but I don't think any MCU film has had an OW fall below 2x its presales except Endgame, and that was close.
  10. XXR vs XXR
    No, it means once a ticket is bought it can’t be refunded. That’s why this is unique and gets a special disclaimer when you go to purchase.
  11. XXR vs XXR
    You’ve been away for a bit huh? First day sales were on par with No Way Home. It’s going to open over $100M and could potentially beat Barbie’s OW.
  12. XXR vs XXR
    It has to be something in the scraping method, because the tickets are non-refundable.
  13. XXR vs XXR
    It's also important to remember this is getting no traditional promotion (as of yet, at least). It's going to move on the power of Taylor's social media and she hasn't said shit since the first day 🤣
  14. XXR vs XXR
    What I did on my end is look at equivalent ticket prices for films last Thursday at 7PM and just average them out versus TET Friday prices at the same theater. So let’s say you check 5 of your theaters (or 1 from each chain, however many that may be) and get a composite of $12 for the equivalent “normal” Thursday evening price, then get the average for TET Friday during the same show. At scale, the variances in seat type should mostly come together.
  15. XXR vs XXR
    All the numbers are great but let’s be honest, if it can’t dethrone TFA for #1 all-time domestic then it’s a flop. She should have charged $30 a ticket
  16. XXR vs XXR
    My money is on Disney or Netflix (who had her previous concert film.)
  17. XXR vs XXR
    Huh, I’m surprised Infinity War had that record over Endgame, TS4 or Mario.
  18. XXR vs XXR
    That's not even as front loaded as Deathly Hallows Pt. 2
  19. XXR vs XXR
    Around 80% I believe. @keysersoze123 has more insight into the spread.
  20. XXR vs XXR
    There’s no pattern that fits a 1.5x multiplier.
  21. XXR vs XXR
    Definitely. At this point we’re just trying to figure out presale frontloading and capacity restrictions. We still have over a month until it’ll really start to matter.
  22. XXR vs XXR
    Everything in total? About $55-60M.
  23. XXR vs XXR
    MODERATION There’s already a thread to discuss the merits of Quorum and this isn’t it so that will be the end of this conversation on the tracking thread.
  24. XXR vs XXR
    I think right now I'm most curious what happens the next time Taylor tweets/IG's to promote the film. That's the big needle mover. Are we going to see a 5% jump in ticket sales or a 20% jump? It's a very unusual thing in our business (i.e box office tracking) because it's an entirely unprecedented dynamic for which we can't account or apply previous trends.
  25. XXR vs XXR
    I would expect similar splits to the Barbie movie.
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