XXR vs XXR
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Everything posted by XXR vs XXR
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Taylor Swift || The Eras Tour || International Thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Bob Train's topic in International Box Office
Really difficult to tell since I'm not sure what comparative pricing is like (ATP vs standard ATP in those markets) BUT if ticket sales are similar to her album sales, it will do about 125-150% of what the US does. So let's say DOM (US+Can) does $300M. The US would be about $270M of that. That would put all non-US markets in the ~$340-400M range. -
There’s no fathomable way that this thread should have this much activity.
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Even holding it for Brazil still has the film coming out before the concerts there. Same for all of Europe and Asia/Oceania.
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Is it coming to China? I assume not at this point.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
That’s surprising because she’s not (comparatively) that huge in Italy. -
Curious how big presales will be here. I figure a comparative 75% of US sales (population adjusted).
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Now things are getting interesting. Let’s see if this post bumps US sales and what kind of presales damage it will do internationally. -
Yes. Most of your mid-major chains like Drafthouse, Marcus, Harkins, etc.
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Ahh right. Which is even more to my point. Releasing the film 2 weeks before the concerts seems unusual.
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Releasing the film 6 days before the first concert in the country seems unlikely. It will be a very curious choice if it’s true.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
It’s funny/ironic to consider that as big as this film is for the theater business and how much interest its numbers have in our circles, it’s still basically just a side project for her. We ponder the ramifications of a lack of promotion and the bottom of a U-curve and she’s like, “Oh yea when is that coming out again?” I wish I had a side project that netted me $100M 🤣 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Why would it at this point? Still no promotion and it's nearly a month away. -
It could end up more than doubling Joker's OW.
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Not that I'm aware.
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Well yea, of course lol I don’t think anyone believes it would be close otherwise (if it’s even that close with the high ATP).
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Yea I believe they count presales as everything before OD but whatever the context Deadline is using (I haven’t looked into it or given it an overt amount of consideration.) I’m on the OW between Barbie and Black Panther train, but unlike a lot of films with discernible patterns and franchise context we are flying fairly blind for a while. I’m rooting for all the big numbers being thrown around though, especially Sat > Endgame Sat.
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^^^ This. I think too many people are treating this like a really PS heavy franchise film but in reality it’s something different. It wouldn’t surprise me if 60-70% of OW was made during presales. By comparison, MOM was about 35%, NWH about 45% and even Endgame was only right at 50%.
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You really think Saturday can get to $110M+? Right now I’m thinking something like 50-75-55.
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I’ll get you and Relevation 6 months of premium each if this opens to $300M.
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Ahh, Reddit. I forget some of y'all post there. Good calls but def not the first or oldest on either. I digress. We will see how high it does but I think presales would need to be much higher for it to hit $300M OW. NWH had $120M presales on a $260M OW but that included quite a lot of holiday spread. Eras Tour would likely need $175-200M in presales for a $300M OW.
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I'm fairly certain (meaning I've looked at their posts) that they made no such predictions for either film when they were still a month out.
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@Relevation I'm rooting for your predictions but I'm having trouble seeing numbers that high, even with the engorged ATP. I'm willing to "settle" for 175/350.
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I went ahead and moved a lot of the non-tracking convo about TET (which I partially started) from the tracking thread into here
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Are we taking bets on the forecast? If so, put me down for $90-120M OW and $180-250M total.
