XXR vs XXR
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Everything posted by XXR vs XXR
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Yep, final trailer Monday. They had a little announcement for it during the Ohio State / Maryland CFB game on ABC about 15 minutes ago. -
You could be correct. Perhaps this will have an NWH or A1 level of ticket sales but I'd rather shoot "low" and not be disappointed by lofty projections.
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$675M is my target but until we can get some presale data and I can gauge actual interest, you can do +/- 25% of that number
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Flop = Under $425M Disappointment = $425-550M Acceptable = $550-650M Good = $650-750M Great = $750-850M Amazing = $850-999M Incredible = $1B.... Avatar Level Performance = $1.173B Titanic Level Performance = $1.504B
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All of the below are assuming a full release schedule minus Russia. If China doesn't happen, the bars would move. Flop = Under $1B Disappointment = $1-1.3B Acceptable = $1.3-1.7B Good = $1.7-2.3B Great = $2.3-2.8B Amazing = $2.8-3.5B Incredible = $3.5B.... Avatar Level Performance = $4.4B Titanic Level Performance = $5.9B
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Not bad for WF. Should go at least +50% today and potentially up to +70%. Weekend something like.... 17.9 - 27.5 - 19
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That was crazy, if anyone thought it. TB only dropped 50% its 2nd weekend. That would be over $90M for WF.
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If they market GOTG3 as a pseudo-finale for these characters, we might get a nice boost. I can see anything from $375M to $500M domestically (with my target being $425M). GOTG has always been relatively weak OS for an MCU franchise. It'll probably do $350-400M on that front.
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$622M with China and Russia which AM3 will likely not have. Remove those two and we're down to $488M. I'd say a good target for AM3 is $550M with an exceptional target of $600M.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
XXR vs XXR replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Is that the ones with extra screens on the side? -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
XXR vs XXR replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Yea I can't perceive stereoscopic 3D like that so it does me no good. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
XXR vs XXR replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
All I know is, I won't be doing 3D. So if all of my PLF screens are going that route, I'll just be copping $8 tickets at my local Cinemark and hittin' the recline button! -
They did release the long-range forecast but deleted it for some reason. I'll be back up eventually.
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I'm not worried about that. China can pump 95% of a run into 2-3 weeks. I agree China could artificially dump it early to prevent it from passing TBLC2 but that still leaves room up to $900M if it has the demand.
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$1M+ previews for The Menu and $160K for She Said.
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Tickets go on sale Monday and I'm very curious to see what the initial demand looks like. I'm guessing it'll be somewhere between JWD and The Batman. As of today I'm still sticking with roughly the following numbers... $160M DOM OW $675M DOM Total $1100 - 1400M OS-C-R $700-900M China (assuming no COVID restrictions)
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Covers themselves. Anything over is handled by the “+”
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I don’t think it’s making $70M and neither do most prognosticators in the Derby.
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I think his point is that everyone under-predicted TGM and using an outlier as a comp isn’t the best idea.
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$1.32B for A2 if it overproduces by the same percentage
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I won't say $75M is a pipe dream because it's certainly possible but I would train my expectations closer to $65M. It's likely to be higher than that, so you won't be disappointed when it doesn't hit a lofty target.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
XXR vs XXR replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Next Monday or Tuesday. -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
China had their highest grossing film post COVID. The market is there, it’s just a matter of the COVID zero restrictions. @charlie Jatinder what kind of ticket price would we be looking at?
