XXR vs XXR

I took my queue from Shang Chi which fell 53% against a much smaller (comparatively to WF) opening VLTBC. Feels like something in the 55% range is appropriate for Black Adam.

Definitely feels like a Jimmy Johnson / Jerry Jones type situation. Hopefully it doesn’t bite us in the ass to placate the owners ego.

It’s perfectly realistic but we really need a better idea of what Friday will do before we can say how likely it is. If Friday comes in at $55M then it’s very likely. If it comes in at $50M then it’s unlikely. It’s right on that threshold either way.

I’m having a hard time believing Friday can go over $56M. I know it’s a minor holiday but even the first movie didn’t double previews for true Friday and we all know things are more frontloaded now.

Hence my title, please allow me to apologize profusely for the pain that Porthos has caused. We will have a closed door discussion about this

28-54-55-41 for 178

very good

Just got home from the movie. It's powerful. This won't get an A+ like the first one but I think it'll get a solid A.

Thor L&T vs BPWF - Taken about 1.5 hours apart on equivalent nights.

Looking over all of the numbers in the tracking thread, I've got a few confidence levels for BPWF's opening weekend.... > $25M previews = 99% > $26M previews = 94% > $27M previews = 77% > $28M previews = 59% > $29M previews = 33% > $30M previews = 16% > $31M previews = 7% > $32M previews = 1% > $160M OW = 99% > $165M OW = 98% > $170M OW = 91% > $175M OW = 78% > $180M OW = 62% > $185M OW = 43% > $190M OW = 29% > $195M OW = 11% > $200M OW = 4%

Atlanta Comp for True Friday (AMC Southlake 24) vs The Batman = 4.036x ($141.3M) vs DSITMOM = 1.755x ($96.03M) vs Thor: L&T = 2.298x ($93.19M) It’s safe to say it’s massively over-indexing in Atlanta…

12 Theater Tracking for True OD Friday - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Total Seats Sold: 21578 PLF - 3D - Regular Ratio (%): 55.7 - 7.7 - 36.6 Comps The Batman - 15043 tickets sold (1.434x = $58.17M) Morbius - 3404 tickets sold (6.339x = $73.56M) DSITMOM - 24245 tickets sold (0.89x = $48.7M) Top Gun: Maverick - 10262 tickets sold (2.103x = $68.78M) Jurassic World: Dominion - 10704 tickets sold (2.016x = $83.84M) Thor: Love & Thunder - 14220 tickets sold (1.517x = $61.54M)

Feels like we're going to be seeing you say this again in about a month

$550-650M.

I'll have a comp later today for Friday against L&T and MOM in Atlanta.

That would not be more than JWFK from JW.

28 - 55 - 55 - 41

This looks on par or better than any recent James Bond or Mission Impossible film.

So $140-160M INT and $165-185M DOM.

It's nearly 3 years away....

Since I have numbers for The Batman, MoM and L&T I'm going to go ahead and run BPWF today around 3PM for Friday numbers and see how we're looking. Based on the tea leaves in here it seems even $190M might be off the board but I'm still hopeful that some of the "no Black Panther in the Black Panther movie" stigma wears off by the end of today and WOM starts taking over.

Mostly agree except with KD and SW. Even without China (and lets say Russia also) I'd be surprised if either fell below $1.75B

Ahh I'm sure things have changed a bit in SK but even TGM managed nearly $70M and a local film called "The Roundup" has made $100M this year. I can't speak for The Roundup but TGM shouldn't have near the zeitgeist that A2 has given the popularity of the original and The Roundup at least shows that if something is worth seeing then SK can still move 13M tickets!

Why would it paint a picture, bleak or otherwise, for Avatar 2?