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Daxtreme

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    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

     
    Less, $188 million.

     

    Right. Week between X-mas and New-Year is generally very good, movies either go up or don't drop a lot.

     

    Return of the King, for example, dropped a mere 15,5% during its second week, and avatar actually went up. Force Awakens isn't Avatar, but it's showing much better holds than Return of the King so far, so I think it's going to do pretty well, actually.

     

    My prediction is 30% drop for the week ($100 M) + 40% week-end drop($90 M)

     

    so, $188 M seems about right. It might drop less than that though. Anything above that is a win, in my opinion.

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    To all those doubting $900M+, here's the deal:

     

    The 2nd Week-end of the latest big blockbusters, Jurassic World and Avengers (1st one), had their second week-ends = ~15.6% of their total gross

     

    (In fact, no movie with a second week-end greater than 60 M had a total gross of more than 20% of their second week-end)

     

    So, applying those numbers to Star Wars we get

     

    $153,522,000 / 0.156

    = $984,115,384

     

    And that's assuming Star Wars follows Jurassic World and Avengers. It's much more hyped up than them, at least I think, but that's for another day...

     

    source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=2&p=.htm

     

    Let's calculate Star Wars's total with Avatar's second week-end-to-total ratio, for fun.

     

    153,522,000 / 0.101

    = 1,520,019,802

     

    Avatar is ridiculous.

     

     

    • Like 3

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Elessar said:

     

    My "one percent or two" was just a manner of speaking. I meant to say, very little. I highly doubt saturday will be off by $1m, or even close to that.

     

    That Disney low-balls their estimates is news to me. They overestimated TFA OD. Again, Sundays are a different story.

     

    I guess we'll see when actuals come in.

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, shruth said:

    nah by the time official weekend projections come out the Sat gross is always set and stone and Sunday might be prone to change a bit. But yeah RTH under predicted Sat and it is going to stay at $55m

     

    None of the numbers from December 24th and onward are actuals right now. 

     

    Because of holidays.

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, The Panda Menace said:

    Also, before anyone cries, these are honestly great numbers.

     

    Avatar held so well the first weekend partially because of a snowstorm that moved a lot of opening weekend business to Christmas weekend.  Star Wars is coming off an OW over 3x the size of Avatars.  Realistically, numbers can only get so big, especially with 5 new wide releases eating up showtimes.

     

    150-160m 2nd Weekend is better than all but the very highest of openers can do on their OW.  That also puts a 100m+ 3rd weekend in the cards.  That's huge.

     

    Indeed, $58-59 M is still the 5th best Saturday gross in history (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/f-th.htm?page=Sat&p=.htm)

     

    In fact, if 58-59 M holds up, SW7's gonna have 2 of the 5 biggest Saturday grosses ever.

     

    Ironically enough, I still can't understand why Iron Man 3's saturday number was 6M above Age of Ultron...?

    • Like 1

    Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Daxtreme

    Btw, once star wars 7 finishes its run, it's looking at having 41 records on boxofficemojo, and that's without any foreign ones, and christmas eve which isn't considered a record either.

     

    Jurassic world loses all but 4, and avatar is looking at conceding 3-4 most likely 4

     

    Edit: 5 if worldwide goes to SW7

     

    Dayum!

    • Like 1
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