PPZVGOS

Some general observations without analyzing the numbers thoroughly: a) Rogue One is facing higher than anticipated competition from a number of lesser movies. Sing has been particularly dynamic and has easily exceeded expectations by a wide margin. Another outright triumph for Illumination studios. Passengers is also demonstrating signs of life after its poor first couple of days. Pratt & Lawrence have real star power (of only very few actors that still possess this quality) Even Why Him and Fences are doing better than expected, plus there are still holdovers on the scene, such as Moana, Fantastic Beasts etc... TFA by comparison had a much smoother path.2) If Rogue One can maintain an almost X3 rate over SH2 up until Jan 2, then we will be looking at a total of around $450M by then . This is an optimistic scenario, but not an unthinkable one. Rogue One did (roughly) maintain its ratios over SH2 over the previous week, until the (relatively) bad Xmas Day number. c) The flood of new films has now stopped. This will definitely prove beneficial for Rogue One, since some of the current competitors will disappoint and whither away, freeing $$$ for Jyn Erso & co. This is why I think that 2) is optimistic but within the realm of the possible. d) Over $500M total guaranteed. Around $550M total likely. Over $600M if we are one with the Force and the Force is with us!

Massive Alien fan here, but unfortunately the trailer looks quite underwhelming. The music is terrible, it shows too much, and there's just too much Prometheus in there. I won't give up hope, but this doesn't look nearly as good as the new Blade Runner.

Precisely

SH2 made $6.75M on Friday and $9.61M on Sunday. A 42% jump if I am not mistaken. Rogue One made $22.77M on Friday. "IF" Rogue One made "only" $25M on Sunday, then we are dealing with a Sunday-from-Friday jump of only 9.7%. Albeit from a much higher base.

Sounds too low for me too. I refuse to believe this!

Up until now, R1 has been tracking very closely to Sherlock Holmes 2 from 2011 (despite the much larger number of $$$ involved) A $25M number for Xmas day will be a major divergence from that (on the negative side)

$25M for R1 on Sunday will be quite disappointing.

Funny that you mention Shawshank Redemption, Raiders of the Lost Ark & Mad Max. I actually find all three of those films to be tremendously overrated.

My Bold Prediction for the future of the global box-office: There will be a $1bln grosser in a single market in China before North America.

Estimates for the 4-day weekend range from $129m to $136. Which is quite epic if we are honest. While everybody expected Deadpool to be a major hit, I think this genuinely demolishing any reasonable expectation.

When dealing with the biggest films over time, one has to make a vital distinction first. One metric is admissions, which focuses on the raw quantity of tickets sold. The second metric, is the real value generated by a film at the box-office in terms of constant currency (usually USD) This is a very important distinction, because the real value of tickets has varied between both time and between films released at the same time. One elementary error I find on BO websites, is the direct translation of admissions to the current average ticket price. This is highly misleading, because it blindly assumes that any movie from the past would have been able to sell the same number of tickets regardless of the real price. To give a real world example, ticket prices in the 90s were much lower in real terms than they are today. Adjusting the grosses of Jurassic Park, The Lion King, Forrest Gump, ID4, Titanic etc based on admissions achieved then and subsequently multiplied by the current (higher in real terms) average ticket lies on the misguided assumption that these films would have managed to sell the exact same number of tickets even at higher prices. The result is of course an inflated adjusted number that exaggerates the success of films from previous eras.

Amazing how popular the LOTR films were in Spain. They were also extremely successful in Scandinavia and Germany iirc. Which is reasonable, since they are partly based on Nordic mythology and imagery.

A real shame for TFA with massive new markets such as Russia & Brazil going through epic currency devaluations. TFA came out literally in the worst possible period in Russia, with oil (which determines ruble value) at multi-year lows.