George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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34 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
You make it sound like Star Wars is this new IP people in Europe had never heard of before, I'm assuming Europe because Asia seems to have rejected TFA and R1 completely. Star Wars has been here forever and it's had it's fans, however I COMPLETELY reject your notion that Star Wars can only get bigger. It's a two way street and if they release rubbish films they're going to get smaller and smaller audiences.
Now back to my original point, TFA made $1.13B Overseas and $936m Domestic. R1 Is looking to make about $530m DOM and slightly under that Overseas.
What happened to the overseas? I can speculate all I like, I don't have to wait for 3/4 films and I'm not being unreasonable or obtuse. It's very possible that the overseas dropped because the casual audience didn't love sws tfa as much as you think.You keep repeating this, even after having been shown to be wrong, no idea why. And yes, that kind of makes you unreasonable, because you are ignoring obvious arguments to push a useless one.
Rogue One dropped that much because it is a spin-off, not because "people didn't like TFA", which is an absurd statement to say the least. It wouldn't have made that kind of money if it wasn't really popular. As I have mentioned to you before, the start of Rogue One wasn't like any other Star Wars movie in pretty much every country. As an example: Episodes I, II and III started with increasing admission-numbers in Germany, and VII added another bit on top of that. Going from 1.79m to 1.85m, 1.96m and 2.14m for VII. Rogue One only started with 1m. You can find the same thing basically everywhere. If Episodes I and II, which had mixed / split reactions, didn't lower the starts of the following movies in any way, then a better received VII most definately doesn't cause a drop to 50% of the start. If anything, it would have an impact on the legs, not the start, and the legs have generally been better, not worse.
Simply put, this movie wasn't treated like a regular Star Wars movie by the audience, and that has nothing whatsoever to do with people "not liking TFA as much", because as shown above, that doesn't have a drastic impact on the start of the movie. You pretty much ignore the very obvious reason for why this happened so you can push your agenda.
Asking why the USA is different doesn't really make sense either, because
1) it doesn't run all that different from what some other countries where Star Wars is big deliver
2) we have no idea how regular episodes run compared to spin-offs, because we only had one new regular episode and now one spin-off so far
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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:
2mil would be possible without competition but now there are two upcoming movies aimed exclusively at young girls - canadian/french CGI Ballerina (US release title "Leap!") and the week after, german horse-com Wendy - and while both get more or less critically panned, they will take quite a bite out of Moana's audience I suspect.
Ballerina has already started last weekend, has it not?
It had around 60k admissions, including previews.
Episode VIII being the highest grossing movie should be a given, though I think things will be a whole lot closer when it comes to admissions. It should definately drop quite a bit from the 9m TFA had, and who knows how much Despicable Me 3 will do (part 2 had only around 3.7m, but Minions almost 7m). Not sure what else could get there, maybe Beauty & the Beast. Jungle Book fell rather flat in Germany, but I don't think the same will happen to BatB. There is also the 5th POTC movie, a franchise that has always done well here, even if the 4th one had already dropped a bit. All in all, I'd still see Episode VIII ahead at this point, but if it only gets into the 6-7 million range (II and III had 5.8 and 5.6m), things could possibly become interesting.
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50 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
3 day will put it behind the Bye Bye Man if their actual holds.
Disney trying to do to Bye Bye Man what it tried to do with Hidden Figures last weekend,
Disney didn't try anything. They were the ones who got the numbers right last weekend, the others simply underestimated theirs. It's not Disney's fault if other companies underestimate their own movie.
It's one thing if you significantly overestimate your movie just to get a better headlines (e.g. Fox having Episode II at 86m so that the 4-day opening would come in ahead of Spiderman's (3-day) number from earlier that month, with the actuals 6m lower), but something else entirely if you give proper estimate that just happen to be ahead of another movie. Seeing how Disney didn't care about any records or nice numbers they could have taken with a slight overestimation for basically all of their big movies of the recent past, even if it was down to just a handful of Dollars, it's pretty safe to say that they are the company least likely to "cheat" with their estimates.
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6 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:
First of all, we have to look at the facts as they are. The reality is that Star Wars is epic in some countries (especially the Anglophone ones) but everywhere else it ranges from merely pretty big to just sheer randomness. The one factor that stands out, seems to be the one related to language, hence the epic success of Star Wars in English-speaking countries as well as a few other countries (but to a lesser degree) where the people are both more familiar with Anglo-American popular culture as well as boast a significant proportion of their populations that speak English as a second language.
The box-office numbers for individual countries in relation to Star Wars are purely factual, my speculation over the reasons that may explain them, are not, but the correlation seems far too overwhelming to be accidental.
Star Wars is ingrained in the culture of many countries that most definately are not part of the english-speaking world, just like Star Wars is of no real significance in countries that are part of the english-speaking world. Language has nothing to do with it, exposure at the best possible time certainly helped, though it wasn't essential for TFA being a huge success in some other countries either. Being part of the "western world" also helped in some cases as well.
Having english as second language makes absolutely no difference at all in that regard, when movies haven't been shown in that language at all. In many countries, having a decent number of shows in the original language of the movie is a fairly recent thing, and still only something that a small number of movies get, with all movies getting translated instead, in others, movies didn't get a synchronisation but only subtitles instead, yet there is no difference in terms of success between the two sorts. Thus, it has little to do with the language, and everything to do with whether it fit to the culture in a country, and has managed to keep up the interest since the original movie came out. The original Star Wars was absolutely huge in Spain, a country that had very little connection to english and wasn't exactly known for being integrated with the rest of Europe at that time, due to still being a dictatorship at that point. In fact, it was likely much bigger there than it was in Germany, where it didn't even win the year back then. TFA did great in both countries, though money obscured that view a bit. Rogue One now dropped by pretty much the same amount in both countries, which is still enough to win in Germany, while being merely an average blockbuster in Spain.
Your theory also doesn't explain why TFA fared so well in places like Romania, Hungary or Bulgaria or Poland, which have virtually no connection to the english-speaking world. Granted, Rogue One didn't really work out in Romania either, but the drop was basically in line with what most of the countries saw as a drop, with only very few exceptions. It fared a bit better in Bulgaria, and did really well in both Poland and Hungary though. Episode VIII should once again be a dominant force in those markets.
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2nd trend seems to be mostly identical to the first one when it comes to the top movies. Only The Great Wall is down from 160 to 150k, while Vaiana is up from 110 to 125k
Movies that didn't get mentioned in the first trend:
Vier gegen die Bank 75k
Sing 75k
Assassin's Creed 75k
Ballerina 60k
Bob der Streuner 50k
Wbd Hartmanns 45k
Fantastic Beasts 25k
...
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3 minutes ago, JB33 said:
Are there certain points in the year when Thursdays typically have significant drops? If so, maybe that's what I'm thinking of. I usually expect Thursdays to be the lowest grossing days of the week.
Summer and autumn often see more significant drops on Thursday, but there are exceptions during that time as well, where the drops are slim.
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36 minutes ago, JB33 said:
Excellent hold for Rogue One ! I mean, that's the kind of number we should see if 2011 holiday movie patterns are any indication but I didn't expect R1 to follow that pattern. I was thinking more along the lines of $1.2M to $1.3M.
I don't see why that should have been the case. Thursday at this time of the year usually stay flat, +/- a tiny amount. TFA actually went up slightly on three out of four Thursdays in January. A 20-30% drop, which is what your drop would have been, would have been almost catastrophic for such a day.
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First trend is out, with some pretty steep drops. Weather isn't really good this weekend either though.
1. Passengers 200k
2. The Great Wall 160k
3. Why Him? 150k
4. La La Land 150k
5. Rogue One 140k
6. Plötzlich Papa 125k
7. Vaiana 110k
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13 hours ago, Leviathan said:
I think when Guardian of the Galaxy vol 2 succeeds (and of course Avatar franchise, which isn't questionable at all) in every region that Star Wars brand fails to achieve, American newspapers will begin to seriously question why their beloved SW failed. For now, lame excuse is expected. US critics are well known for being fond of SW. See the two magical examples below for easy reference
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_episode_i_the_phantom_menace/
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_episode_ii_attack_of_the_clones/That has little to do with reality. Star Wars is doing just fine internationally, even more so when it comes to the actual episodes. No journalist is going to wonder why Star Wars isn't a huge success in certain markets just because another movies fares well there. No one runs around and wonders why Marvel always fails to deliver in Europe either.
It has also absolutely nothing to do with "failing". You will have a hard time finding any movie that did great everywhere, apart from something like Titanic perhaps. Nor are any of these details "excuses". Some movies do not appeal to certain audiences, tough luck, that happens to basically every one of them. Just like there are movies that are big in China yet wouldn't be watched for free in other territories.
It's not like those markets where Rogue One didn't work out have some sort of higher standard when it comes to movies either. Just look at which american movies really succeeded in China: Furious 7, Transformers, Jurassic World, hardly movies that offer anything more than mindless entertainment, particularly the first two.
And for something that had been mentioned by someone else:
No, TPM was not rated as "rotten" when it was released. It had a fresh rating. It was only when it got re-released in 3D that additional reviews put it below the 60% mark.
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56 minutes ago, eXtacy said:
Got to take into account possibility of surprise hit local films. Also Your Name is taking a huge hit this week with holidays over so I don't think it will get close to SA anymore.
On the other hand, Your Name is getting an IMAX release this weekend (I think), which could counter the drop from the holiday season being over.
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8 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:
But I have already acknowledged the fact that people in Asia (and much of the rest of the planet) do in fact consider white to be more desirable etc and is their right... I just pointed out some other factors as well. As for Boyega, I think that JJ & Kennedy were so desperate to meet their diversity quota, that they just went for the first young black actor with good comedic timing they could find, without looking at the bigger picture more broadly. I mean, what % of Star Wars paying viewers worldwide are black? I would say it's a very tiny %.
Yeah, that's complete nonsense. There was no "diversity quota", and Boyega didn't get picked because he was the only "black young actor with comedic timing" either. I have no idea why you continue harping about this "diversity" nonsense. The movie is full of white people, having one or two black ones mixed in there doesn't somehow make it "pandering to blacks" or whatever odd idea you can come up with. Just because you have odd ideas about certain roles doesn't mean that they are true, nor does it mean that everyone else looks at these things the same way you do. All you do is projecting your view onto others.
And on a different note, there was nothing bad about Boyega's role, nor about his acting.
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The "weekend" in terms of box office gets defined by what the people in question define as the standard for the weekend. If they think Thursday previews belong towards the weekend, then that's the way things get counted. Unless everyone involved agrees to change the formula, that's how things get counted. Just like the "weekend" runs from Thursday to Sunday in Germany because movies happen to start on Thursday, or how the "weekend" in Japan is only Saturday and Sunday.
It's not like Friday is truly part of the weekend either, it's a regular workday. The only difference is that the next day happens to be part of the weekend, which allows more people to go out on Friday evening. By your reasoning, you would have to seperate the Friday from the weekend as well. Thus your comment about the long weekend could be send right back at you, because nowhere is Friday part of the regular weekend.
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51 minutes ago, Ariana said:
Yeah, for Disney it won't be "just China", excuse me, "just China"??? It's the second biggest film market and a soon-to-be biggest market of the world. Disney has tried everything possible to save SW's future box office and merchandising in China with a desperate attempt, and it's very clear that they don't plan to give up at all. China is a promising market and Chinese moviegoers are easy to please, they just want to be entertained by an audience-friendly, creative movie with a decent plot and acting, it's not that hard, actually it's not a problem at all. They never reject and harass the new stuffs, then force the studio to make nostalgic films and call it "loyal to the original" like US fanboys. That fanboy's belief is so twisted and weird. I never imagined that SW brand would suffer this fate. but unfortunately, thank to TFA and SW fanboy, SW lost the chance.
China is not "soon to be the biggest market in the world", not by a longshot. The market didn't improve in 2016 at all, and the only reason it didn't drop significantly is because the first three months were still huge.
And who said anything about "just China"?
Nothing like that can be found in the post you quoted.
What you don't seem to get, is that a Hollywoodf studio is not going to cater to one specific area in the hope that they will be more sucessful there, when the price is risking the rest of the world. Star Wars has plenty of territories where it is incredibly huge. In fact, it is so huge that it managed to break a billion internationally even with China being lackluster. They aren't going to throw everything a franchise stands for - a franchise that has been among the most successful ever worldwide for almost four decades now - out of the window, in the vague hope that markets that haven't shown much interest so far suddenly "get it". Star Wars is the biggest franchise in the biggest market. It's also the biggest or one of the biggest franchises in many of the largest intenational markets. What you are saying amounts to me suggesting Chinese movies should drop everything they are known for to accomodate my tastes. And that would obviously be nonsense, because I'm not the audience China is producing movies for.
And to top things off: just because you see nothing but "nostalgia" being used doesn't make it somehow the truth. Both TFA and Rogue One have been extremely well received, and while TFA isn't exactly big on creativity, focusing more on delivering everything people connected to Star Wars in the past, Rogue One can hardly be blamed for the same thing. It's also kind of odd to criticise a lack of creativity or to ask for "just a decent plot and acting", when most of the most successful American movies in China were all of the "mindless fun with not a whole lot of plot or particularly noteworthy acting" category.
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21 minutes ago, Ariana said:
So Finn is your favourite character? We get it. I don't have any problems with him either. I watch SW because it's SW, simple as that, not because of any single characters. But people was talking about the fact that many Chinese moviegoers didn't like Finn, his acting was bad and awkward, they felt uncomfortable every time he showed up. It's not biased, it's the truth, the reality. Do you know that Han Solo is one of the most favourite TFA characters in Weibo's public poll, while Finn is left far behind? Ford's charm and acting woos the young audience, despite the fact that now he's just a supporting character and a 74-year-old actor.
That has pretty much nothing to do with what terrestrial was writing, you are basically putting words into her mouth.
The bias that gets mentioned is about the performance, which you make sound far worse than it actually is, and the idea that just because one market doesn't like a particular detail or actor doesn't mean that this is true for all the other markets as well. Most markets had zero problems with Finn. Neither was the acting by John Boyega considered bad or awkward, nor did people mind his role.
That's the whole point that got made earlier on. Movies keep to a certain style, if that style doesn't fit with audiences in a foreign market, tough luck, they aren't going to change a decade-old franchise just to accomodate what the audience elsewhere likes, because that just risks the audiences in the successful markets.
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22 minutes ago, hw64 said:
This isn't anything out of the ordinary tbh, it's just how modern Star Wars films perform overseas.
It's doing very well in the UK, well in France, Australia, Germany and Japan, and poorly in China, South Korea, Italy, Russia, Spain, etc.
There aren't really many surprises - nothing's really changed from TFA.
Of course things have changed from TFA. While the markets in itself are clearly split in the same way as before, with those markets that were exposed to Star Wars back in the days delivering, while those that weren't being modest at best, the performance in the common markets still was decidedly different from what was normal for Star Wars. Rogue One clearly didn't start like a normal Star Wars movie did. Just look at what TFA or the prequels did in countries like France or Germany. Those starts were significantly ahead of what Rogue One delivered.
Spain or Italy where hardly bad markets for TFA. Italy wasn't exactly huge, but TFA was still the biggest movie of the year 2015 in terms of Euro, and it was decidedly bigger than any movie but the record-setting local movie this year. TFA was basically 10m Euro ahead of what the biggest foreign movie delivered this year, which is quite a huge difference when it comes to the amounts that get made in Italy. In Spain it got to 6th place alltime in terms of Euro, which was quite a lot more than any movie made this year as well.
The drop between TFA and Rogue One isn't really any different in Italy or Spain than it was in other European markets.
The idea that Rogue One dropped so much because "people didn't like TFA as much as some have claimed", like Iron Jimbo claims, is absurd though. It has little to do with this. This movie clearly wasn't considered part of the main storyline, that's why the movie wasn't as big. Just looking at the openings of the latest Star Wars movies in Germany tells you exactly that people didn't treat this like a regular episode. Episode I started with 1.79m admissions, II with 1.85m, III with 1.96m, VII with 2.14m, Rogue One with 1m. If mixed receptions couldn't cause any of the prequels to start with less, then TFA most definately didn't cause any drop.
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1 minute ago, PPZVGOS said:
Beasts is proving immense OS, and OK at home.
I have been repeating this ad nauseam, but Star Wars is just performing very poorly in both East Asia (a massive and still growing market) as well as Lat-Am (another very big and growing market) I think that this was the reason behind the casting of Yen, Jiang and Luna, but still it did not make any discernible difference. At least LucasFilm should stop pandering so pathetically.
They didn't "pander so pathetically". It's obvious that they hoped that it would have a positive influence, but they hardly chose actors whose only noticeable feature was that they came from a certain country. All actors that were chosen have proven to be good if not great actors, and that is that all really matters. The movie wouldn't have been one bit better if those roles had been played by other actors.
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Everything down in the 3rd trend due to the weather:
1. Passengers 440k
2. Rogue One 300k
3. Vaiana 270k
4. Sing 210k
5. Plötzlich Papa 190k
6. Vier gegen die Bank 185k
7. Assassin's Creed 170k
8. Wbd Hartmanns 100k
9. Fantastic Beasts 85k
10. Feuerwehrmann Sam 70k
http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm
edit: woah, let me amend that. Vaiana is up, as is Vier gegen die Bank. Sing and FB stayed flat.
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1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:
But isn't Star Wars supposed to be a far more hot brand now than Harry Potter when Fantastic Beasts came out? I just can't understand your reasoning would you mind helping me? I mean HP brand is far from very hot right now. The brand peaked during 00's and early 10's. Those who watched Fantastic Beasts were mostly loyal fans. If Fantastic Beasts was released in 2010 (because TFA is not the last SW) for example it would have still gotten the loyal fans but I believe that the there would be more GA support as the HP brand would be more relevant. Again I may be mistaken in something.
No, very much the opposite. At least when it comes to the international markets. It's Harry Potter that is the recent thing.
Star Wars formed its fanbase in the 70s and 80s. It blew everyone away at that time and became ingrained in the culture of the countries where movies were big at that time. You can still see that it is big in the markets it first succeeded in, renewing its fanbase in the process. The problem is, there are plenty of markets which weren't that big at that time, which either developed by now or are still relatively minor. Star Wars couldn't really make much of an impact there back when it came out. By the time the markets had become big enough, the old Star Wars movies weren't exactly state of the art anymore, regardless of how far ahead they were in their time. You basically have lots of markets in Asia or South America where Star Wars hovers between meh / solid / very good, depending on the market in question, simply because Star Wars couldn't make an impact at the time where its impact would have been the biggest. If you look a market like China, the original movies obviously played no role, and the prequels also came out at a time where China's market was still very minor.
This causes a split in the international markets. On the one hand you have the "original" markets - some of which are simply gigantic, some being merely very good - which have been living with Star Wars since the beginning, on the other hand you have the markets where Star Wars wasn't a thing back in the days. These are the places that deliver fairly average numbers for a blockbuster franchise.
Harry Potter is very much the opposite. For one, it's a book-series turned into a movie-series. It's quite easy for books to spread all over the world, movies have a much harder time getting everywhere. But more importantly, Harry Potter is a fairly recent thing. It's not something that wowed everyone 30-40 years ago, it is something that came around in the late 90s and stuck around until a few years ago (counting the main series). All the rising markets basically grew up with it, as did those who were already big in the first place. It's not something that was already old when certain markets started to explode.
In other words: Star Wars had its origin and its peak - if you want to call it as such - in the late 70s and early 80s. It can continue to build on what it caused back then, but its peak didn't match with the development of certain markets, which is why it isn't big there. Harry Potter had its peak in the 2000s, very much matching the development of rising markets.
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Mhm, basically everything down a bit, apart from a few that stayed flat. I had hoped for some improvements.
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2 hours ago, JB33 said:
I was comparing R1 to big releases in 2011, when the calendar was the same. It's actually a better reference than TFA in terms of box office behaviour and it was pretty accurate up until the last few days and this weekend (projected).
I think that worked decently for the holiday period, but not so much for anything that follows. We are back to normal days again, movies don't really have any reason to follow the same trends anymore. It's not like Rogue One behaved comparably to Sherlock Holmes 2 or MI: Ghost Protocol on the weekends anyway. On christmas weekend, it rose slightly less on Friday, dropped less on Saturday, rose quite a bit less on Sunday but got a bigger boost on Monday. On New Years weekend, it had a weaker Friday increase, dropped about the same on Saturday, rose better than SH2 on Sunday (though same as MI) and dropped less on Monday. The behaviour on the weekends was more of a mix between action movies on the one hand (SH2, MI) and animated movies on the other (Tintin, Chipmunks).
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Just noticed this while looking at the yearly charts at insidekino (from Jan 1st this year, hasn't been updated further):
Zoomania is 1st in admissions, but only 5th in Euro
Pets is 2nd in admissions and 4th in Euro
Dory is 3rd in admissions and 2nd (by now 3rd) in Euro
FB is 4th in admisions and 3rd (now 2nd) in Euro
R1 is 6th in admissions and 1st in Euro (though after this weekend probably 4th or 5th in admissions)
There is so little difference between the admission totals of the three animation movies, only 15k apart each. It was kind of odd though to temporarily have a completely reversed situation between the five movies when looking at the two different charts. Ignoring WbdH, which was 5th in admissions but a distant 6th in Euro.
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1 hour ago, terrestrial said:
Thank you, I can not remember any impacting weather too, but am not sure.
I too think the new releases might impact stronger than the weather, hence the might be measurable (the 5% +/- and might not...). I tried to say it, not sure how far it was clear.
Yes, the two years have both this special weekday / weekend / public holiday combi. I guess in some decades they will have more data for those kind of years.
Does anyone here know how far we can quote from mediabiz?
http://www.mediabiz.de/film/news/kinocharts-deutschland-trend-sternenkrieg/414322
Would have been nice to look at the data from 2005, the last time before 2011 the calendar was like this, but I don't think the old insidekino boards reach that far back.
Mediabiz is the site that was referred to as the "trends from Munich" last week. They tend to overestimate the weekend multipliers by a lot
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The article also states that Rogue One made 3.86m on Thursday, followed by Sing with 3.6m and Passengers with 1.7m. Does that belong in here or in an own topic for Thursday?
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1 hour ago, terrestrial said:
I am too lazy (better said busy with a non BO-project), do you happen to have looked into the weather then?
I am curious how far the ice here in my direct surrounding (I won't drive a meter in the evening/night) and the bad weather to yesterday in the north... might have an impact.
Also if Saturday / Sunday will fare better in comparison to especially Thursday (splitted up to the regions without ice... - the regions with ice the opposite?).
I mean in the +/- 5% area. I do not think it will have a bigger impact (Thursday), curious if it is measurable (if existing).
No, but I don't think there were any weather issues back then. It was simply a matter of how the holidays fell. The new years weekend saw increases from the christmas weekend, and the current weekend stayed flat or increased from the new years weekend.
I guess it goes something like this: christmas weekend is rather weak due to the weekend itself being harmed by christmas eve falling on Saturday, while Thursday and Friday aren't holidays yet for most of the country. New Years weekend increases because Thursday and Friday get boosted by the holidays, while the weekend itself stays as weak as the one before. The current weekend has the advantage of the weekend itself being normal again, unlike the last two weekends, while Thursday and Friday are still part of the holidays in some parts of the country (with Friday itself being a holiday in some areas). This should, in theory, lead to movies staying flat or increasing.
For this time around, I'd say the new big starts are more likely to cause the drops. Not sure if the storm or the cold weather had that much of an impact yet, and what happens on Saturday/Sunday in regards to the weather can't really get taken into account in the first trend.
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW
in International Box Office
Posted
I'd definately expect a total above 1.04b, more likely somewhere in the range of 1.045b or 1.05b. Domestically it should finish at the very least close to Dark Knight, which is another 20m or so. Add just 10m internationally and you are already over 1.04b. Seeing how it made more money internationally than domestically this weekend, I don't see how it could do less than half the rest of the way, so that number is probably closer to 15m, maybe more. That would put it at over 1.045b already.
If the domestic total somehow ends up closer to 540m than 530m, it should top 1.05b.