George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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France also has relatively cheap ticket-prices compared to the other top European markets, so lots of admissions wouldn't necessarily translate to making more money than the other markets. The gap in admissions would have to be quite significant for France to match the UK in terms of money.
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To give all numbers reported so far:
1. BatB 865k
2. Kong - Skull Island 200k
3. Bibi & Tina 160k
4. Logan 120k
5. Die Häschenschule 90k
6. FSoG 2 75k
7. Moonlight 65k
So everything either up or at least steady from the last trend
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I don't know about that. Beauty and the Beast was a solid hit in the USA, but hardly out of the ordinary. It finished 3rd of the year 1991 with 145m, Aladdin won the next year with 217m. In Germany, BatB won the year (1992 in this case) with a bit above 5m admissions, though it was one of the weakest years of that time. Aladdin finished second with 6.4m admissions the year afterwards. Sounds all rather similar, if not favourable to Germany.
Emma Watson does add quite a bit of attention, particularly in the UK. She is among the very top when it comes to followers on social media, I think. That doesn't have as much of an impact in Germany.
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Mhm, this would put it behind FSoG 2 for the top opening of the year so far.
It's still a good start compared to similar live-action versions of Disney-movies, but I don't think it will turn out to be as impressive as other markets (the UK for example). Way too early to say anything about its legs, but the opening fits to all the animation-movies that finished behind Rogue One last year, meaning it could fall into the same range as Zoomania/Zootopia, Finding Dory and Pets, which was between 3-4 million. It should definately be ahead in terms of money though. Insidekino lists 9m Euro for the weekend, which means the average ticket price is above 10 Euro. Or in other words: the amount of money beats the admissions x10, while the opposite was the case for the animated movies.
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First trend is here ( http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm ):
1. BatB 950k (with the additional comment that if it acts like a musical the number would be lower, and if it acts like a family movie the number should be higher)
2. Kong 175k
3. Logan 150k
4. Bibi & Tina 100k
5. FSoG 75k
other starts:
Die Häschenschule 70k
Der Hunderteinjährige... 27.5k
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11 hours ago, Omni said:
Germany has become a joke of a market.
And why would that be?
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I'm not sure if piracy has that much of an impact. Those who download the movie mostly wouldn't have seen it in theaters anyway. If you are really interested in watching a movie, you aren't going to watch a tiny version of it that might even be in rather bad quality. Those who pirate everything wouldn't go the the theater anyway, removing the option of illegal downloads would just mean they don't watch the movie at all, and the ones who occasionally download a movie are probably doing it more for movies they have a passing interest in, not the ones they absolutely have to see. The latter should hurt home-video sales more than the cinemas.
It's a bit different when it comes to tv-shows. A lot of people want to see things right when they come out, which is possible with movies due to release dates not being spread out as far as they used to, but it's not really happening with tv-shows. Instead you have a delay until the shows come your country, leaving many people with dowloading the originals or watching a stream.
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It doesn't really help that the industry has been ignoring the truth for years. Instead of acknowledging rather lacklustre admission totals, they try to sweep these numbers under the rug, focusing on the money made instead. While it is the money that pays for the running costs, the numbers would be way bigger if the admission totals were larger, as would be the money made from snacks. The more people come, the more popcorn and soda you can sell.
France has far more people going to the theaters, even though it has a smaller population. In Germany they go with more and more expensive tickets to keep the monetary inflow at a somewhat steady level, but that cuts into the own future. The more expensive things get, the fewer people will come - or the fewer visits the average person will have per year - and just like that, those who still come will have less money to spend on snacks. France has much cheaper tickets, and while that may hurt the total a movie makes, the larger number of people should help the cinemas. You only get a partial sum from the tickets, but you get everything from concessions. Having a sizeable audience is much more healthy long-term than constantly having to up the ticket prices to make enough money.
2016 was an extremely weak year though. There wasn't anything that really caught on. It would be nice to know what exactly caused the boom of the late 90s and early 00s. Having two huge fantasy-franchises certainly helped, but that can't be the sole reason for it.
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Presales for Beauty and the Beast are rather muted so far, then again, it doesn't really have the franchise-effect in the same way other movies do, so it may not actually say much about the opening at all.
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2 hours ago, cubsfan said:
Because they never wanted the xmas released date and have been hell bent on getting it to May since.
Huh?
No, they haven't been hell bent to get back to May at all, on the contrary. TFA wasn't supposed to come out at christmas, that was mostly due to Abrams requesting more time, but it has proven to be a goldmine for them. If they had been hell bent on getting back to May, they easily could have started earlier with the production of Rogue One, instead they put it at christmas as well. And much more importantly, they actually moved The Last Jedi to christmas, a spot it didn't have at the time TFA came out. Episode VIII had been set for Memorial Day 2017, the weekend POTC 5 is now filling. It was only in January 2016, after having seen how well TFA did over christmas, that this movie was pushed back to December as well.
There is zero reason to assume that they have much interest in getting back to May.
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1 hour ago, cubsfan said:
2019 is clear. Star Wars will be going for may releases.
Now why would that happen?
The only reason the Han Solo movie was not set as happening on christmas was because Avatar was supposed to come out at that point.
TFA came out at christmas, Rogue One came out at christmas, The Last Jedi will come out at christmas, and James Cameron himself mentioned that there wouldn't be a Avatar-sequel for christmas 2019 so that it wouldn't run into Star Wars. There is little reason to assume that Star Wars will return to May. Not only has christmas proven to be a great time for them, but there is also less direct competition, not to mention no issue of the two big Disney releases of the year (SW and Marvel) starting in the same month.
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7 hours ago, cubsfan said:
Nah. It's get's released in December 2019. I can't imagine it getting delayed until 2020. I mean it's Cameron and anything can happen...
Cameron specifically mentioned not wanting Avatar and Star Wars to face each other back when he announced the planned dates for the four sequels (2018, 2020, 2022, 2023), I don't think anything will change about that, especially with him and Disney having common commercial interests now.
It would be odd to wait for christmas 2020 if the movie would be finished some time in 2019, but it's not like a christmas release would be absolutely necessary anyway. Sure, it is a great period to make money, but neither Titanic nor Avatar showed clear signs of slowing down after the holidays, meaning you could pick another great date and still have a good chance for better legs than usual. It's not like the first sequel not starting at christmas would prevent the following ones from starting there.
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12 hours ago, NoobSaibot said:
Then I'll probably see it on opening weekend. I'm not saying it won't. It's probably going to make some money because Dwayne Johnson is one of the lead characters.
But considering how much money Stranger Tides made---even though it was a stinking turd---I wouldn't be surprised if it made more than $1 billion just as easily as that film.
I'd say it is rather unlikely that Pirates makes it to 1 billion. While POTC 4 didn't quite have the outrageous exchange-rates POTC 3 had, they were still significantly above what we currently have. The movie would need to increase quite a bit over the last one to make up for that.
I'd also say that is very unlikely to suck the air out of the box office, because it simply isn't big enough for that anymore. the last one opened to a 90m weekend, good but way behind what 2 and 3 made. On top of that, this is Memorial Weekend, one of the biggest weekends of the year. There is more than enough room for two movies.
2011 had two starts at 86m and 47m, plus a holdover with 39m (POTC 4), 2013 had three starts at 97m, 41m and 33m, plus a holdover at 37m. The years afterwards didn't quite match that, but mostly because they had few good holdovers or good starts, not because one movie was making all the money. If Baywatch fails, it will be because people didn't find it interesting, not because it was overshadowed by something else.
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2nd trend from insidekino:
1. FSoG 2: 600k
2. John WIck 2: 280k
3. Recep Ivedik 5: 170k
4. Lego Batman: 130k
5. Split 97.5k
6. La La Land 80k
7. T2: 60k
8. Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben: 57.5k
9. Wendy: 52.5k
10. Vaiana: 50k
plus a few more at: http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm
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Since regular Thursday numbers don't belong into the weekend thread, here they are:
Daily Domestic Chart for Thursday February 2nd, 2017
← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Split Universal $1,511,500 +2% 3,199 $472 $84,116,465 14 - (2) Hidden Figures 20th Century Fox $1,282,086 +5% 3,351 $383 $109,302,095 40 - (4) A Dog’s Purpose Universal $804,740 n/c 3,059 $263 $22,101,265 7 - (6) xXx: Return of Xander Cage Paramount Pictures $510,297 -5% 3,651 $140 $36,324,887 14 - (7) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Walt Disney $349,590 +2% 2,049 $171 $521,709,512 49 - (8) Gold Weinstein Co. $269,735 -6% 2,166 $125 $4,771,465 7 - (9) Sing Universal $257,215 n/c 2,702 $95 $258,826,480 44 - (10) Lion Weinstein Co. $255,548 +9% 575 $444 $20,705,674 70 - (11) The Founder Weinstein Co. $214,710 -4% 1,115 $193 $8,396,805 34 - (14) Moonlight A24 $158,968 -3% 1,104 $144 $18,405,249 105 - (13) Monster Trucks Paramount Pictures $157,886 -7% 2,496 $63 $28,994,593 21 - (15) Fences Paramount Pictures $141,120 +1% 880 $160 $51,426,020 49 - (-) Moana Walt Disney $137,497 +7% 1,894 $73 $240,759,515 72 - (-) Sleepless Open Road $123,656 -5% 1,055 $117 $18,396,228 21 - (-) Arrival Paramount Pictures $121,729 -1% 1,221 $100 $97,841,635 84 - (-) 20th Century Women A24 $94,672 +1% 650 $146 $4,306,527 40 - (-) Jackie Fox Searchlight $77,726 -2% 508 $153 $12,502,236 63 - (-) Silence Paramount Pictures $54,766 n/c 316 $173 $6,634,454 42 - (-) The Resurrection of Gavin S… High Top Releasing $36,770 +2% 879 $42 $2,206,013 14 - (-) The Bye Bye Man STX Entertainment $32,043 -42% 1,127 $28 $22,044,416 21 - (-) Why Him? 20th Century Fox $27,906 -6% 365 $76 $58,873,511 42 - (-) Fantastic Beasts and Where … Warner Bros. $18,802 -3% 231 $81 $232,228,519 77 - (-) Assassin’s Creed 20th Century Fox $14,480 -10% 210 $69 $54,204,264 44 - (-) Trolls 20th Century Fox $14,427 +13% 231 $62 $152,803,200 91 - (-) Collateral Beauty Warner Bros. $12,074 +6% 203 $59 $30,912,848 49 - (-) Neruda The Orchard $10,004 +34% 32 $313 $468,720 49 - (-) Doctor Strange Walt Disney $8,382 +9% 104 $81 $231,673,043 91 - (-) Live by Night Warner Bros. $7,848 -20% 163 $48 $10,315,176 40 - (-) Miss Peregrine’s Home for… 20th Century Fox $1,108 -9% 50 $22 $87,233,361 126 - (-) Ocean Waves GKIDS $122 +53% 5 $24 $71,215 37 -
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My first attempt at entering a tab
Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Split Universal $1,477,160 -31% 3,199 $462 $82,604,965 13 - (2) Hidden Figures 20th Century Fox $1,219,049 -25% 3,351 $364 $108,020,009 39 - (3) A Dog’s Purpose Universal $808,360 -41% 3,059 $264 $21,296,525 6 - (5) Resident Evil: The Final Ch… Sony Pictures $793,011 -38% 3,104 $255 $16,634,612 6 - (6) xXx: Return of Xander Cage Paramount Pictures $538,843 -37% 3,651 $148 $35,814,590 13 - (8) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Walt Disney $342,079 -24% 2,049 $167 $521,359,922 48 - (7) Gold Weinstein Co. $287,467 -36% 2,166 $133 $4,501,730 6 - (9) Sing Universal $256,115 -36% 2,702 $95 $258,569,265 43 - (11) Lion Weinstein Co. $235,143 -20% 575 $409 $20,450,126 69 - (10) The Founder Weinstein Co. $223,879 -29% 1,115 $201 $8,182,095 33 - (12) Monster Trucks Paramount Pictures $170,557 -36% 2,496 $68 $28,836,707 20 - (14) Moonlight A24 $163,796 -18% 1,104 $148 $18,246,281 104 - (-) Fences Paramount Pictures $140,102 -22% 880 $159 $51,284,900 48 - (15) Sleepless Open Road $130,164 -29% 1,055 $123 $18,272,572 20 - (-) Moana Walt Disney $128,741 -26% 1,894 $68 $240,622,018 71 - (-) Arrival Paramount Pictures $122,814 -19% 1,221 $101 $97,719,906 83 - (-) 20th Century Women A24 $93,633 -7% 650 $144 $4,211,855 39 - (-) Jackie Fox Searchlight $79,503 -13% 508 $157 $12,424,510 62 - (-) Passengers Sony Pictures $73,920 -33% 625 $118 $96,460,552 43 - (-) The Bye Bye Man STX Entertainment $55,127 -27% 1,127 $49 $22,012,373 20 - (-) Silence Paramount Pictures $54,761 -7% 316 $173 $6,579,688 41 - (-) The Resurrection of Gavin S… High Top Releasing $36,036 -34% 879 $41 $2,169,243 13 - (-) Why Him? 20th Century Fox $29,711 -25% 365 $81 $58,845,605 41 - (-) Fantastic Beasts and Where … Warner Bros. $19,405 -23% 231 $84 $232,209,717 76 - (-) Assassin’s Creed 20th Century Fox $16,122 -15% 210 $77 $54,189,784 43 - (-) Trolls 20th Century Fox $12,755 -14% 231 $55 $152,788,773 90 - (-) Collateral Beauty Warner Bros. $11,431 -30% 203 $56 $30,900,774 48 - (-) Live by Night Warner Bros. $9,832 -18% 163 $60 $10,307,328 39 - (-) Doctor Strange Walt Disney $7,656 -24% 104 $74 $231,664,661 90 - (-) Miss Peregrine’s Home for… 20th Century Fox $1,218 +5% 50 $24 $87,232,253 125 -
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Surprised no one has posted the numbers yet. Here they are, though I don't know how to add it in proper form:
Split 2.1m
Hidden Figures 1.6m
A Dog' Purpose 1.36m
La La Land 1.33m
Resident Evil 1.27m
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You really should stop throwing generalizations around, or act like your opinion or what you hear from people around you is in any way close to the consensus, because it is not. That's not how reality works.
Discussions work much better when one person doesn't treat his opinion as a fact while not being able to offer a single piece of proof for it. It's one thing to state an opinion, it is something entirely different to act as if that opinion was somehow a fact.
An opinion can never account for more than it is. If all you have is "I hear people say", then you don't have anything at all. I mean, I have never heard anyone that I know say something bad about the character of Finn, and I most definately have not seen or heard anyone compare him to Jar Jar Binks, not even on a Star Wars board. By your logic this should mean that he is a beloved character, yet that clearly doesn't fit to what your opinion is. Thus making it pretty clear that an opinion is just that: an opinion. And no matter what you believe, or what you may read somewhere, it can never be proof for anything. It doesn't mean that your view is the consensus among people, it doesn't mean that the consensus is exactly the opposite of your claims either. Such a statement should never be portrayed as anything close to resembling a fact, because it simply isn't. Yet you use it that way all the time, regardless of the issue.
There is nothing to suggest that merchandise of the character is not selling well either.
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12 hours ago, Valonqar said:
So between 1.5b and 1.6b WW. Big drop.
Sounds more like a completely normal drop to me. International box office isn't making giant leaps anymore, in part due to the exchange rates having become much worse than they used to be. Unless you happen to see the Chinese freak out over your movie, chances are low that the international take will grow. On top of that, you have the fact that a completely normal drop will look much bigger the more money your original movie made. If you drop 30% from 100m you lose 30m, if your drop 30% from 1b you lose 300m, if you drop 30% from 2b you lose 600m.
Age of Ultron would have dropped 20% worldwide from The Avengers, if it hadn't been for China exploding as a market in the meantime. Seeing how TFA is a huge outlier in multiple big markets (e.g. domestically, UK, Australia, Germany), the drops will naturally be pretty big, even if you make huge numbers. 1.5-1.6b would be a drop of around 25%, which is completely normal if the first one happened to be so much larger than almost everything else, not to mention the less than stellar development of the exchange rates in the meantime.
The nature of TFA being the first Star Wars movie in quite some time, plus the return of the old characters, led to a hype that brought many people to theaters that normally wouldn't go, hence the extreme numbers in some parts of the world. Such a thing isn't really sustainable for a sequel.
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9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Like I said earlier, all three of these films have a decent chance at outgrossing stuff like the new Kong. Audiences are showing there can be a healthy mix of films.
Of course there can be a healthy mix of films, but you cannot really cherry-pick movies to make an argument.
The three movies that got mentioned have been very successful, but they are just a small number alongside a whole group of similarly "new" topics that only did okay or even failed completely. Just like that, there will obviously be sequels that will fail as well, some have little reason to exist in the first place, but that won't change the fact that sequels and big budget actions movies will still dominate the box office year after year, with only animation (which in itself uses original stuff as well as plenty of sequels) being able to interfere with this.
Having a bunch of new topics succeed at the box office is nice, and hopefully this will help witll green-lighting more ideas like that, but the movies themself are hardly proof that people are desperate for these kind of movies and don't want to see more sequels or big budget actions movies, because not only do these three movies get drastically outnumbered by successful sequels or franchise-stuff, but they are also quite a bit less successful than those movies.
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12 minutes ago, jandrew said:
One is a drama about black women at NASA, one is a musical about Hollywood, and one is a psychological thriller. Wake up, Hollywood. We're tired of the big budget, shiny but shallow, CGI excessive, sequel crap. The box office speaks.
We want a good time at the movies, not a corporate time at the movies.
Does it though?
It's not like any of those three movies is a giant that is destroying everything in its path. All three are very successful, but they aren't exactly beating all the big budget CGI fests that come out every year.
These movies show that you can reach an audience and make a very nice amount of money if you deliver something interesting, but big budget action movies still clearly rule the day. On top of that, you cannot forget that for every one of these surprising hits, there are a whole bunch of failures as well. The studios may be rich, but they still need some movies that are "guaranteed" hits. Without those, they would never bother taking the risk of attempting something new.
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That news definately makes the battle for no.1 (in terms of admissions) quite a bit more interesting.
At this point I'd think that FjG3 will take that spot. Provided it doesn't see a significant drop as well. The second one rose a bit from the first. I'm not sure if that can be repeated, but even if it would drop to the 6-7m range, that should be roughly were Star Wars is heading as well.
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3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:
So from now on but it ill be included but not before?
It really is nonsense padding since none of that money goes to the studio. They might as well start rolling in food and drink concessions sold to ticket holders for each specific movie...
Well, it's not like all the money went to the studios before this either
I think the additional fee usually gets counted as part of the ticket-price in Germany as well, so it isn't all that outrageous to include this, though the system might be quite a bit different. I don't really see a problem with counting it towards the movie, because you have to pay this if you want to buy your ticket that way, making it definately part of the normal process.
The odd part isn't that that it gets counted, but that it gets changed now, because that makes comparisons a bit harder, not to mention unfair towards older movies.
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Weekend estimates (some slight differences between main site and boards):
1. xXx: 235k (220k without previews)
2. Passengers 150k
3. La La Land 150k
4. Plötzlich Papa 130k/ 132.5k
5. Vaiana 115k
6. The Great Wall 105k
7. Why Him? 90k / 92.5k
8. Sing 72.5k
9. Rogue One 70k
10. Collateral Beauty 60k
Rogue One has topped 3.8m and passed Finding Dory for 3rd place of 2016. Should get to number one by next weekend. Though with a whole bunch of new movie it might not reach 4m.
Vier gegen die Bank made it past 1m, adding another movie above the 1m mark for 2016.
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WEEKEND THREAD | Official Weekend Estimates: Beauty and the Beast - 88.3M; Power Rangers - 40.5M; Life - 12.6M; Other Numbers First Post. Gokira has been threadbanned.
in Numbers and Data
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It will need some pretty good legs to get it done.
At this point it is about 30m ahead, but by Friday it will probably be 25m behind, as Rogue One made 88m over those four weekdays for a total of 375m, while BatB might make maybe 35m for a total of about 350m by Friday. Rogue One followed that up with a 49.6m third weekend, BatB would need to drop no more than 44% to match that, if the current estimates are correct. That is doable, but it isn't going to gain a lot over that weekend. With Rogue One adding another 30m over the next weekdays, BatB will probably be further behind by the time the 4th weekend hits than it will be the upcoming Friday. It should be able to have better number afterwards, but at that point it will already be around 30m behind.
Dark Knight was behind even further at that point and still came out ahead, but that's a rather tough performance to match.