George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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Can't speak for the southern parts of the country, but where I live the day started with plenty of rain, before it turned sunny in the early afternoon. Then again, Saturday wasn't all that great here either. Lots of rain before it turned to be just cloudy (if still warm) for the evening.
Overall a pretty warm weekend, and still quite sunny, especially on Friday, which was by far the best day in terms of weather.
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18 minutes ago, excel1 said:
$34m would mean $23m from FriDAY. 300,000 Tweets, dominating MT and Fandango, excellent word of mouth. I can't see it.
I would be shocked at under $50m total end of day Friday.
Dominating MT and Fandango doesn't really say much, because those are percentage based. There is a huge difference between getting 75% of low sales, 75% of high sales or 75% of extremely high sales. So far, social media hasn't been reflective of box office either. Some movies are just more appealing to certain audiences that happen to be more active on social media.
50m sounds way too optimistic to me, early numbers usually aren't that far off. 40m might be doable, but a huge jump beyond that is just unrealistic.
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First trend is up, though weather can obviously still lead to bigger changes:
#1/2 POTC 400k
#1/2 Baywatch 400k (375k without previews)
#3/4 GOTG 2 65k
#3/4 Alien 65k
#5 Hani & Nanni 35k
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7 hours ago, Gokai Red said:
We can talk about China all we want, but the fact that the Fast and Furious series crossed 1B OS with back to back entries shows that it is currently the number 1 player overseas, ahead of Star Wars, Wizarding World, Marvel, whatever else. Really crazy to think that a (originally) domestic-centered franchise with such humble beginnings is now the biggest overseas franchise out there.
Well, mostly thanks to China. China is to the FF franchise what the domestic market is to Star Wars. Take out China and just look at all the other international markets, and BatB tops F8 this year, just like TFA (by a lot) and JW topped FF7.
You obviously can't just remove one market from the international take, but not pointing out that this is caused by China to the largest extend, is missing out on facts as well. It has reached a point where China can screw up all comparisons, meaning it could be worthwile to split the numbers into three categories, domestic, China, and the rest.
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I'm surprised nothing else dropped from the last trend. Don't know about the south of the country, but here in the north the weather couldn't really be much better, it is warm and sunny today.
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20m Euro would sound overly optimistic to me. Looking at its current admissions to money ratio, the movie would need about 2.5m admissions to get to 20m Euro. It is currently sitting at around 1.6m or so, and since it isn't listed in the trend and no.5 ends up with around 50k or so, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of steam left. Maybe it can get to 15m, but 20m seem very unlikely to me.
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Ouch, good weather strikes again, the third trend is in:
#1 GotG 2 420k (-44%)
#2 Get Out 175k
#3 FF8 135k (-50%)
#4 The Boss Baby 65k (-18%)
#5 Smurfs 45k (-25%)
#6 Expedition Happiness 40k?
#7 BatB 40k (-45%)
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2nd trend is up at insidekino:
#1 GotG 2 500k
#2 Get Out 200k
#3 FF8 140k
#4 Boss Baby 60k
#5 Smurfs 50k
#6 Expedition Happiness 40k?
#7 BatB 40k
so basically everything down a bit from the first one
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I think that has more to do with Monday being a holiday and thus Sunday not acting like it normally would. I wouldn't see any indication of the movie's future legs in that.
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3 hours ago, MattW said:
That website hasn't matched the other overseas updates we've gotten from Mojo/DL/etc. I'm guessing there's some mixing-n-matching going on somewhere, but not sure where. For example, UPI updates around 6pm UK time most days, and they may be adding in the next day's income from some of the furthest east markets and/or leaving out some from north/south american markets.
On April 19 Mojo had $565.1m while UPI had $558.73m, a gap of 6.37
And on April 26th Mojo had $794.2m while UPI had $771.94m, a gap of 22.26
I think overseas updates in general are much less accurate than I assumed before.
I think the updates from BOM, the numbers, etc. are kind of useless anyway, due to the completely idiotic way they handle exchange rates. Those should be applied at the very least on a weekly basis, instead of recounting the total with the latest exchange rate.
I mean, just look at the following data from TFA:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VII-The-Force-Awakens/United-Kingdom#tab=box-office
It left theaters in the UK at the end of May, sitting at $180m, following some rather absurd swings. Then it happened to run in some open-air venues in the summer, which somehow caused its total to lose almost 20m because the Pound happened to be weaker at that time. That just doesn't make any sense.
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3 hours ago, zackzack said:
Deadline says industry projection for F8 is $230M but a $20M 3rd weekend with a $193M cumulative should allow F8 to speed through $240M-$250M.
I don't know about that. FF6 had a 19.6m 3rd weekend, putting it roughly 10m ahead of F8 at the same point in time, yet it only finished with 238m while having summer weekdays. Even if F8 would somehow get a 20m weekend, it would need some excellent drops over the next weeks to catch up to FF6, much less top it by up to 10m. With GotG 2 coming up, I don't really see that happening.
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35 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
So F8 is gonna pass Titanic's original OS (1.2b) or not?
I don't think there is much of a chance for that.
FF7 "only" made 1.163b or so, and FF8 is doing worse than that movie in most of the markets. With China not changing much from the last one, there is little chance of keeping the same level, much less improving on it.
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Third trend is in, pretty much everything seems to be down:
#1 FF8 550k
#2 Boss Baby 225k
#3 Smurfs 190k
#4 BatB 160k
#5 Conni & Co 2 90k
#6 Going in Style 80k
#7 The Bye Bye Man 47.5k
#8 GitS 42.5k
everything else below 40k
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2nd trend by insidekino:
#1 FF8 575k
#2 Boss Baby 260k
#3 Smurfs 3 220k
#4 BatB 180k
#5 Conni & Co 2 105k
#6 Going in Style 80k
#7 The Bye Bye Man 50k
#8 GitS 45k
everything else at 35k or lower
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First trend by insidekino:
#1 FF8 575k
#2 Boss Baby 260k
#3 Smurfs 220k
#4 BatB 175k
#5 Conni % Co 2 110k
FF8 would be down by almost exactly 50%, not counting previews. It would stand at 2.4m admissions, FF7 was at 2.97m at the same point.
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Both FF8 and BatB seem very close to 10 Euro per admission so far, so multiplying the total by ten should work out as a rough guideline.
After last weekend, BatB had 2.371m admission and made 23.486m Euro
FF8, meanwhile, had 1.33m admissions in its first five days, while making ~12.75m Euro
If the average prices would stay that way, and if both would reach around 3.5m admissions, BatB should end up slightly ahead. The obvious number would then be 35m Euro.
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Sounds like FF8 is at 1.55m after Monday, so about 200k on that day.
FF7 had 1.9m admissions during its first week, plus not quite 300k from the Wednesday before that, for a total of 2.19m after eight days and a final result of ~4.2m. No idea how large Tuesday and Wednesday will be, but if those two days would combine for 200-250k, then FF8 would end its first week with around 1.55-1.6m, with an eight day total 1.75-1.8m.
Looks like it might be rather close between FF8 and BatB when it comes to the total. Maybe somewhere around 3.5m admissions for both.
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I still don't understand why anyone would wonder where the new characters were. There was just a quick glance at Rey, Poe, Finn, BB-8 and the back of Kylo Ren in the first teaser for TFA. There was no text by any of them, only some words by Snoke. None of their appearances were any different than the ones in this teaser. None of the other new characters appeared in the first TFA teaser either, nor did any of the old. The second one was very much the same, instead of one shot, there were three or four quick shots of Rey and Finn, but everything else was still the same, just with Han's line at the end. Quite a few new characters were only seen for a split-second or not at all. The only time there was more than just a quick glimpse at any character was in the final trailer.
Sounds more likely people compare the overall trailer history of TFA to the very first teaser of TLJ, which would be an odd comparison to make.
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I definately see FF8 ahead at this point internationally, China is just too big to make up in that regard. I'd expect it to be rather similar to the last matchup. TLJ will destroy FF8 domestically, just like TFA destroyed Furious 7. FF8 will destroy TLJ in China, though the margin should be quite a bit lower than the domestic difference. "The international markets minus China" should go towards TLJ, as it happened the last time around as well, but China will be enough to keep FF8 ahead internationally. In total, TLJ should come out ahead worldwide as well.
To put it into numbers: F7 had 390m in China and 760m in the other international markets, TFA had 124m in China and 1.07b in the other markets, for a difference of about 30m when all international markets are combined. FF8 shouldn't drop much in China and it is unclear how much it will drop elsewhere, though I don't expect it to keep up like that either. I expect TLJ to drop quite a bit internationally, because 1b without China is very tough to do and TFA benefitted from being the first new SW movie in quite some time.
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3rd trend from insidekino:
#1 BatB 215k
#2 Boss Baby 185k
#3 Smurfs 3 175k
#4 Ghost itS 95k
#5 Lommbock 40k
#6 Life 35k
#7 Kong 32.5k
#8 The Shack 25k
Nichts zu verschenken 20k
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2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:
About BATB: I don't think there's any question that there is still demand for it, DOM and globally. I mean, it just did $45m DOM this past weekend, so it probably has another $50m - $75m DOM left in the tank. And yes, to do $45m DOM over a weekend after you already had $350m DOM in the bank is a testament to how big a hit BATB has been. Any other movie released this year, and I mean ANY, including Guardians, Furious 8, Justice League, or Star Wars, would do well and be happy to have BATB's numbers.
I very much doubt that Disney would be all that happy if Episode VIII happened to be 40m behind Rogue One prior to the third weekend while posting similar weekend numbers, as that would suggest a significant cooldown of interest in Star Wars. They might pretend to be happy, and if the international markets would do well the overall picture might still be very good, but a true Star Wars episode trailing behind a spin-off would not paint a pretty picture of the future, even if the result in itself would still be huge.
It's very much true for the others though. Apart from maybe (and that's a big maybe) Guardians of the Galaxy, I don't see either of those being able to match BatB in the end. I'd say it would be rather shocking if Furious 8 added that much money over 7, after 7 couldn't boost the total by such an amount with the help of very favorable circumstances (for the movie, not for cast & crew that is).
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2 hours ago, cookie said:
ETA on when BatB overtakes Finding Dory to become the highest grossing PG-release?
That's going to be quite some time away. It's currently at 401m or so, while FD sits at 390m on the same day. By the end of Thursday, it should be 406/7m against 402m. From that point on BatB should gain a bit on the weekends, but lose some during the weekdays. Unless it starts to develop much better legs soon, it will take quite a few weeks to pass the 486m total of FD.
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Weekend estimates per insidekino:
#1 BatB 310k
#2 Boss Bayb 310k (270k without previews)
#3 GitS 155k
#4 Life 50k
#5 Kong 47.5k
So far no further numbers listed, apart from A United Kingdom at 30k
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51 minutes ago, Eevin said:
Disney has been fudging the ever-loving bejeezus out of Rogue One the past couple weeks. They want TDK and they want it bad.
Nah, if they wanted Rogue One to get past TDK they would have tried something a whole lot earlier than now. Disney is pretty much the last company that cares about getting another movie or reaching as milestone, they have let countless opportunities pass, even when it came to setting records.
Rth actually explained it in the weekend topic, Rogue One currently gets quite a lot of money from double features at drive-ins, which play it together with BatB. The money from those goes to both movies equally. That's not how Disney counts stuff, that's how it gets handled in the US (and nowhere else apparently). It seems a bit weird, because most of that money obviously comes from people being interested in BatB, but if that's the way it works for every movie, why should it be any different for this one?
On top of that, it is currently expanding into Dollar-theaters.
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BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW
in International Box Office
Posted
Second trend is up at insidekino:
#1 Baywatch 225k
#2 POTC 200k
#3 The Mummy 150k
#4 GotG 2 30k
#5 Alien 27.5k
So The Mummy is down a bit, everything else basically stays flat from the first trend.