George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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1 minute ago, a2knet said:
More often than not sequelitis entails lesser than TFA's multi and 185-190 ow. Still humongous for December, beating Hobbit1 (#2 Dec ow) by 100m+.
I don't know about that. If you look at TFA's weekend, the one thing that truly stood out was the preview-number. The remaining Friday as well as the Saturday were only the 3rd biggest each, I think, while Sunday was no.1 alltime. So those numbers - or something close to that - aren't that unthinkable. I think TLJ has a solid chance of having a better previews to weekend total ratio than TFA, though I doubt that it will come anywhere near the one Rogue One had.
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2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:
Anyone willing to post what this number gives with TFA and RO multiplier for those of us who are lazy enough to search this?
If I'm not mistaken, the same previews-to-weekend multipliers would lead to:
TFA: ~196m
Rogue One: 240.5m
edit: a bit too late
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2 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:
It's an organized campaign across r/movies, metacritic, that french site futurist mentioned really?
Well, faking stuff on the internet is rather easy, doing so with exit polls is rather tough.
It's way too early to tell though. How about people just wait and see what happens over the next few days?
It's not like endlessly arguing about the same stuff that contradicts each other is somehow going to make one the clear cut truth today.
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10 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:
I have never said that people secrectly agrees with me even if they claim otherwise. I just stated the fact that many users is reading this topic but many of them didn't share their opinion. If they enjoyed it why they don't write this?
As others have already mentioned, some people have already commented on the movie, and beyond that, most haven't even seen it yet.
And yes, that is very much what you have done. You haven't talked about how there are few reactions so far, you have come straight out and implied that people are hiding their opinions because they don't like it as much as they pretend they do (which doesn't really fit together with your new comment that "most haven't shared their opinion", because for someone to pretend he likes the movie more than he actually does, he needs to comment on the movie). To top things off, you then acted as if your opinion of the movie was some sort of objective view.
If all you were really wondering about was why there haven't been more reviews and comments yet, you just could have asked why there are so few reviews and comments, but that's not what you did.
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8 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:
I was thinking that there will much more pages, probably users are afraid to admit that they didn't enjoy Last Jedi. Let's be honest it wasn't great movie.
*sigh*
Yes, clearly people are afraid to give an honest opinion on a message board, a place where they can act in anonymity. That makes a ton of sense...
Might be a good idea for you to learn what the word opinion means. Just because you have an opinion doesn't mean that everyone secretly shares it, even if they claim otherwise.
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1 hour ago, UserHN said:
Great news. I'm glad there are some countries where TLJ has respectable drop from TFA. As opposed to the drop in Russia, SK, and the expected huge drop in China.
I think that has a lot to do with where Star Wars is a known entity. Asia didn't have Star wars back in the days, or the countries were too tiny a market back then for it to be well-known, apart from Japan, where it has always been quite big. TFA then created interest everywhere, which didn't last in places where the movie didn't catch on.
You basically had the core-markets of the franchise delivering for TFA, and in many cases even exceeding what was normal for SW. Which now falls back to where the interest usually was (roughly at least). Outside the core-markets, there isn't really an established fanbase that lifts the franchise to the top, so the drops are heavier, especially in regions where this kind of movie doesn't really work as well.
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First trend is up at insidekino:
#1 TLJ (duh) 1.75m (with a huge deal of uncertainty)
#2 Ferdinand 100k
#3 Coco 100k
#4 Paddington 2 70k
#5 Murder on the Orient Express 60k
#6 FjG3 55k (up to a 5.85m total now)
Exchange rates also work in favour of TLJ for once. Unlike with the Pound, the Euro is actually up against the Dollar compared to 2015.
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2 hours ago, JonathanLB said:
$45M+ big guy. I don’t care whether it’s Star Wars or not, you even writing $32M when Rogue One made $29M previews is what made the post silly. You extrapolating nonsense data is even worse. How about extrapolating that if it outsold Beauty and the Beast 3 days ago and kept up a torrid pace it would probably land at the predicted $200M OW and with that number and the SW fan base did you think weak previews were in order?
Theater today was as busy as TFA where I was. Crazy busy and crammed to the brim with lines. Thank god for IMAX reserved seating.
I really don't think you got the post. It didn't say that the movie wouldn't post 45m+, it only talked about very specific numbers from Pulse in comparison to other movies. The number listed was only for those comparisons. Then there was an additional sentence which clarified that earlier presales could obviously mean that the number would be quite a bit higher.
Whether the movie was supposedly heading for huge numbers due to other reasons couldn't be less relevant, because this post was only about a specific set of numbers from Pulse.
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45 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:
The case with TFA is that the buzz was soo yuge that everyone, even those that haven't watched all of the SW movies, wanted to participate in that "event".
Especially, a lot of developing markets were completely unfamiliar with SW in general (since there was basically no cinema in some of those countries when the OT was released) and yet they wanted to follow the same trend that the rest of the world was following.
After seeing the movie though, many were desapointed which makes sense since there was no nostalgia factor to be found.
That's the reason I have said from the beggining that I expect a big drop overseas and well even Rogue One was proof of what I am saying. I remember quite clearly @James being mocked when he predicted an OS total lower to another film that released closely and yet it ended more than true. It's performance overseas was relatively weak. A few traditional markets saved the day in the end.
Rogue One wasn't proof for anything. That movie is completely disconnected from all other episodes, as can be seen by the fact that it opened and finished far lower than any other recent SW movie, as well as TLJ having much higher opening days everywhere.
A drop was always coming, especially with TFA reaching audiences that Star Wars hadn't reached in the recent past. None of that has anything to do with Rogue One though. That movie didn't say anything about how much of a drop would be coming for other episodes, nor did it cause people to somehow stay away from further movies.
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7 minutes ago, hw64 said:
Nobody is considering the possibility that TLJ misses $1b - that's absurd.
Aristis was just trying to start a circlejerk because he seemingly didn't like the fact that someone was saying negative things about the film's 20% drop in France.No he wasn't. Stop pretending that you know why other people are writing things...
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2 hours ago, marveldcfox said:
Cuz a french comic adaptation directed by a french director got trounced by an american sci-fi franchise that is in its 9th movie and took A LOT of inspiration from Valerian comics. How does it feel that American trounces France yet again...
What does that have to do with anything?
Movies aren't a sports-competition, nor are they representing countries (beyond maybe at the Oscar for best foreign movie), people have zero reason to pick one movie as theirs or feel threatened if a foreign movie does better than a domestic one. There simply is no "national" connection at all. If anything, people would probably root for the movie they like the most, which is completely independent from where it is coming from. Now, movies from the own country are more likely to be specifically aimed at the audience in that country, but that doesn't mean that any movie from said country must automatically be more liked than one from the most famous brands in the world.
That doesn't even take up on the idea that the vast majority of people couldn't care less about how much money a movie is making or how well it is perceived. People generally don't gain anything by their favourite movies making tons of money, they only care about liking the movie. The only ones who really care about the box office are those very few who follow it closely, and even from those there is only a tiny sub-group that gets up in arms about what a specific movie makes, mostly hardcore fans who couldn't accept a single bad word or fact about their movie. And that is truly a miniscule group of people among the entire audience.
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7 hours ago, James said:
The fall from TFA to RO was pretty much in the same line of 50-60% in all markets. If that is any indication, looking at the early SK numbers, we could see a 40-45% drop from TFA for TLJ. That would mean a final OS total between 600-680m. Let's say some territories will fare better so maybe 750m max. Only a guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if it came in under 700m OS.
I don't think South Korea is in any way a suitable market to judge the general drop. Rogue One almost dropped 70% from TFA there, it was easily the biggest drop in all of the major international markets, and I don't know if any of the smaller ones matched it either.
If anything, this would hint at the average drop being much lower than 40% due to SK being at the very end of the spectrum last time around. But I wouldn't really take that assumption either, because these are two different movies, and spin-offs and regular episodes may show a different behaviour in different nations as well.
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The weather is certainly interesting right now. Storm-like winds in the south, a ton of rain in the west, snow in the north, risk of floods. Apparently that's supposed to change for the weekend, but if it stays that way it isn't going to help. Bad weather is good for theaters, but not this kind of bad weather.
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No idea whether it is too high in terms of presales or tracking, but it definately isn't too high when compared to what episodes regularly had as opening.
1.7m would actually be the weakest start of any of the modern episodes, which obviously excludes Rogue One. Episode I had 1.787m, II 1.847m, III 1.965m and VII 2.139m.
Though I'm not 100% sure if the prequels may have had previews that happened before midnight. I don't think evening previews were a thing at that time yet, as I very much remember the midnight showings, but I can't state it as fact.
Regarding presales, I really stopped trying to judge starts based on those. Episode VII had out of this world presales that even led insidekino to mention the possibility of a 3m opening weekend at some point, and we all saw how that turned out. The movie was extremely presales-heavy. But that doesn't necessarily mean that this one will be the same. And we do have some cases where presales looked almost weak but the opening turned out to be just fine, see FjG3, even if that was quite a bit lower than the last one. It's really hard to say where movies are heading these days.
I definately do agree that VIII won't come anywhere near VII in terms of the total. At this point, taking the expected OW into account, I'd say the 6m range seems to be the target, though with a better start maybe 7m could be possible as well. Then again, II and III came in below 6m, and both started with close to 2m. But I think VII had a better reception than I or II did, even if it wasn't quite as good as in the US.
Has anyone seen how much marketing there has been for this movie?
I haven't really paid attention to that, but it doesn't seem like there is a ton of it so far. I don't remember lots of marketing for Rogue One either, making me wonder if they just don't bother to the same extend anymore or if I just miss out on it.
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First trend is up, and it isn't looking particularly good. As Mark G. writes, last weekend had the worst top 10 of the 4th quarter in nine years, and this one looks to be even worse:
#1 Coco 160k (-19%)
#2 Paddington 2 140k (+13%)
#3 Murder on the Orient Express 75k (-29%)
#4 FjG3 70k (-36%)
#5 Daddy's Home 2 70k
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If all of the five noticeable starts left succeed on some level, things could look a bit better than they do now.
2016:
4m+: ---
3m+: 6
2m+: 12 (1 missed out by 5k)
1m+: 31
2017 (in brackets movies that could get there, with ? if very much up in the air):
7m+: 0 -> 1? (Star Wars?)
6m+: 0 -> 1?/2? (Star Wars?, FJG3?)
5m+: 1 -> 2 (Star Wars)
4m+: 2 -> 3/4? (Star Wars, Dieses bescheuerte Herz?)
3m+: 6 -> 7/8? (same as above)
2m+: 8 -> 9/10? (same as above)
1m+: 24 -> 27-31? (existing ones, plus Orient Express, SW, Dieses bescheuerte Herz, Paddington 2?, Ferdinand?, Jumanji?, PP3?)
Of the movies already released, FjG3 could move into the 6m+ range. Murder on the Orient Express should top 1m. Maybe Paddington can use the holidays to get there as well?
New starts left that could succeed:
- Star Wars could top 6m or 7m, though Episodes II and III only had 5.8m and 5.6m, so who knows.
- Dieses bescheuerte Herz (with Elias M'Barek, possibly 2/3/4m or even more?)
- Ferdinand
- Jumanji
- Pitch Perfect 3
Who knows, maybe Ferdinand or Jumanji surprise and even top 2m admissions. Though with Star Wars and Dieses bescheuerte Herz starting it might be a bit too much to expect.
We definately will have a higher peak this year, but the modest successes haven't really been there so far. The last time we had less than 30 movies above 1m was in 2012, and that year saw the top 4 movies combine for 30m admissions, while this year might be lucky to break 20m.
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17 hours ago, Olive Skywalker said:
Germany is not like a market with 82M population...
I think that has a lot to do with the way theaters are trying to make money. Tickets are much more expensive then they are in France, and theater-chains don't seem to grasp that this hurts them. By now, the big blockbusters can cost 15-20 Euro, that's just absurd. Even the average ticket price outside of that is quite a bit larger than it is in France. Though France also has the advantage of a healthy movie industry, while Germany is all but a barren wasteland in that regard.
It also doesn't help that studios tend to deliver the biggest movies at times that don't fit to the way the German movie-going works. If you look at the biggest movies since 1990, the vast majority came out in winter, with a few coming in autumn. Summer had a few exceptions, mostly some animated movies or something like Harry Potter, but those either fared much better in winter as well or worked regardless of where you put them.
The whole idea of worldwide releases that all happen at roughly the same time hurts German box office, as does the focus on comic book movies, which really don't interest all that many people here. What could help is Hollywood-studios finally realising that movies can start big even outside the summer, spreading the big movies over the entire year.
15 hours ago, Aristis said:To be fair, WW isn't much better. And Intouchables still is the biggest movie of the decade
I wonder if this will change with upcoming double/triple features. Intouchables is only 140k ahead of TFA, and the latter should get something from the upcoming release of TLJ as well as the release of Episode IX.
While it is obviously not a perfect comparison, LOTR 1 gained about 900k admissions alongside the other two releases, with LOTR 2 gaining over 400k as well. Even if you reduce that, it might just be enough for TFA to pass Intouchables in the longrun. Maybe not this time yet though.
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2nd trend looks even worse, the only movie of the top five that didn't drop was JL...
#1 Coco 240k
#2 Paddington 2 140k
#3 FjG3 120k
#4 Murder on the Orient Express 115k
#5 Justice League 75k
#6 Bad Moms 2 55k
#7/8/9 Aus dem Nichts / Girls Trip / Flatliners 52.5k
#10 Happy Death Day 42.5k
#11 Thor 3 40k
http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm
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First trend is up at insidekino, the holds aren't particularly good:
#1 Coco 275k
#2 Paddington 2 150k (-36% / -49% with previews)
#3 FjG3 125k (-40%)
#4 Murder on the Orient Express 120k (-28%)
#5 Justice League 75k (-40%)
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29 minutes ago, Diana Prince said:
They don’t care about that. Maybe stop responding to them and let them have their echo chamber. I actually skip the posts of some of the usual suspects who add nothing new.
Anyway, what Tuesday number would you deem okay? Should it increase by at least 30%? At this point, I am hoping for 250. It will be extremely tough though. 250 gives it a shot at 700 worldwide which would be a small victory, as that seems to be a threshold.
In don't see any echo chambers here. What I do see in this topic - having no big interest in Marvel or DC myself - is that you throw around wild accusations aimed at basically everybody, for no good reason whatsoever. People are free to give their thoughts on the box office of a movie, provided they follow the rules of the board. Justice League happens to have an unexpectedly bad run, and while some days see drops that are in line with other movies of a similar scale, that doesn't change the fact that this can be considered disappointing by some. Just like Wonder Woman exceeded expectations and got praise on a daily basis.
There is nothing wrong with considering certain numbers disappointing, just like there is nothing wrong with thinking they aren't that bad because they match up with certain other movies, not every number is always a clear cut good or bad one. But what I would definately consider to be wrong is accusing almost the entire board of acting like a mob towards a movie, or accusing the board of being an echo chamber, just because some people dared to have an opinion that differed from yours. Making sweeping accusations against a whole bunch of people doesn't exactly meet the standard of proper debating. If you disagree with someone's opinion, direct a post at that person and give reasons for why you think that person is wrong, don't make sweeping accusations for no reason.
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First trend is up:
#1 Paddington 2 300k
#2 FjG3 200k (-44%)
#3 Murder on the Orient Express 160k (-23%)
#4 Justive League 140k (-35% / -42% with previews)
#5 Bad Moms 2 90k (-40%)
#6 Aus dem Nichts / Thor 3 / Happy Death Day 70k
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Weekend estimates:
#1 FjG3 357.5k (5.225m now)
#2 Justice League 215k / 240k with previews
#3 Murder on the Orient Express 207.5k
#4 Bad Moms 2 150k
#5 Thor 3 147.5k
#6 Happy Death Day 115k / 130k with previews
#7 Hexe Lilli 60k
What is kind of shocking to me is the start Justice League had in Austria. Not the number itself, 31k is probably better than the number in Germany, but the fact that it opened behind the second weekend of Bad Moms 2!
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43 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
Um Ultron and The Avengers are the biggest films overseas for Comic Book movies, I think they did pretty good in Europe.
In many parts of Europe they are far away from what the real blockbusters do. No one said that they don't do "pretty good" in Europe, in fact, I very much did say that they did pretty good by stating that they are solid hits.
The Avengers finished 4th for the year in the UK, at roughly half of what Skyfall made, a bit below Dark Knight Rises, and the Hobbit. And that's maybe the most comic book friendly market in Europe. Age of Ultron also finished fourth, at 1/3 the size of TFA, less than half of Spectre, 20m behind JW and only a bit ahead of Minions.
In France, The Avengers finished 6th and AoU finished 8th for the year, in Italy 4th and 7th, in Germany 12th and 11th. And that is the peak of what comic book movies do, not what lesser known or lesser rated stuff does.
Spiderman was far bigger in most of these markets, and Batman often as well. But even those are exceptions. The average comic book movie is not really relevant in Europe. They make a bit of money, but when you look at the market sizes the totals are far lower compared to what is possible than they are in other international regions. And that was my entire point.
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37 minutes ago, UserHN said:
Seems like this film is not doing that well in Europe. What's the reason? No love for Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman?
No love for comic book movies in general.
There is the odd exception, like the first Spiderman or Nolan's Batman movies, but even those are more solid hits than truly big ones.
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I have never said that people secrectly agrees with me even if they claim otherwise. I just stated the fact that many users is reading this topic but many of them didn't share their opinion. If they enjoyed it why they don't write this?
BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by George Parr
2nd trend is now up as well, with a slight decrease for the weekend:
#1 TLJ 1.725m
#2 Coco 100k
#3 Ferdinand 100k
#4 Paddington 2 70k
#5 Murder on the Orient Express 55k
#6 FjG3 50k
#7 Daddy's Home 2 40k
edit: a bit too slow