George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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First trend is up at insidekino:
#1 Bullyparade 275k (-43%)
#2 Anabelle 2 160k
#3 Atomic Blonde 125k
#4 Happy Family 75k
#5 DM3 60k (-44%)
Doesn't look too impressive. The holdovers are once again rather weak, while the openings are decent at best.
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Weekend estimates:
#1 Bullyparade 485k
#2 DM3 107.5k (-53%)
#3 Apes 3 87.5k (-45%)
#4 Grießnockerlaffäre 77.5k (-46%)
#5 Ostwind 3 72.5k (-49%)
#6 Dark Tower 72.5k (-47%)
#7 Emoji 65k (-46%)
#8 Bigfoot Junior 62.5k / 75k with previews
#9 Dunkirk 47.5k (-48%)
#10 Valerian 45k (-47%)
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1 hour ago, setna said:
According to BOM all time adjusted tickets in USA http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm?adjust_yr=1&p=.htm
WW2 will finish very probably as n.3 all time in tickets sold in any territory adjusted, surpassing films like Titanic, E.T., Jaws, Sound of Music, Ten Commandments....and only behind two all time monsters Star Wars and Gone with the wind,
simply amazing, shocking, no adjectives!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That chart is a bunch of nonsense though. It doesn't take re-releases into proper consideration and applies average ticket-prices to all movies regardless of whether that makes sense or not. E.g. Avatar and to a lesser extend TFA are rated way too high as their average ticket-price was much higher than the norm. In the case of Avatar due to an absurdly high 3D percentage, in the case of TFA due to a mix of 3D, IMAX and all that stuff.
In general, trying to find out the number of admissions in territories that didn't use to count admissions doesn't lead to proper charts. At the very best you end up with very loose numbers that are rough guidelines at best.
Not that this changes anything about how huge Wolf Warriors 2 is.
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I think the German market share will look much better by the end of the year. So far the biggest German movie has been Bibi & Tina 3, which had about 1.6m admissions, followed by a bunch of movies in the 700k range. With Bullyparade and Fack ju Göhte 3, there are two movies that should easily combine for 8-10 million. Not to mention that Das Pubertier, Ostwind 3 and Grießnockerlaffäre are all part of the second half as well, with the first two currently being in 3rd and 4th place among German movies, with Grießnockerlaffäre quickly catching up as well. In other words, the first half only had three German movies topping 500k, the second half should have at least six, with far more high-end potential as well.
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17 hours ago, Giesi said:
What do you guys think of Fack Ju Göhte 3's boxoffice potential? The teaser has collected 3,7M YouTube views in less than 3 days and that's just from 2 main channels. I think the hype cooled down a bit compared to the 2nd part, but I think 5M adm should be possible! TLJ is safe for its yearly crown.
I'm surprised there has been so little marketing for it. One 1 minute teaser two months prior to release is not a whole lot.
Apparently the the teaser worked well at the 'Kölner Filmmesse', and Mark G is openly wondering whether the movie might hit the 7m mark again. I wouldn't say that it is impossible, after all, the second one beat out the first, though with this little marketing so far I wouldn't want to make a bet in either direction. I wouldn't be so sure of TLJ winning the year yet, at least not in terms of admissions. In Euro it should be a landslide.
12 hours ago, marveldcfox said:How much has Valerian grossed so far in USD?
You'd have to check US-sources for that. We don't even have the current Euro-number. Going by the admissions, and taking the admissions-to-Euro ratio from the last known number, it should be somewhere around $11.3m or so, maybe a bit less.
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Weekend estimates:
#1 DM3 225k (+5%)
#2 Apes3 157.5k (-27% / -33% with previews)
#3 Grießnockerlaffäre 145k (+13% / +8% with previews)
#4 Ostwind 3 142.5k (+7%)
#5 Dark Tower 137.5k
#6 Emoji 120k (+4%)
#7 Dunkirk 92.5k (-17%)
#8 Valerian 85k (-23%)
#9 Das Pubertier 67.5k (+4%)
#10 Baby Driver 52.5k (-9%)
#11 Spiderman 37.5k (-23%)
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Second trend is up, with increases for DM3, PotA and Grießnockerlaffäre:
#1 DM3 275k
#2 Planet of the Apes 160k
#3 Ostwind 3 150k
#4 Emoji 150k
#5 Grießnockerlaffäre 150k
#6 The Dark Tower 150k
#7 Dunkirk 100k
#8 Valerian 90k
#9 Das Pubertier 75k
#10 Baby Driver 55k
#11 Spiderman 40k
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Mark G tweets that Grießnockerlaffäre had 134k if you count previews, so it is definately ahead of Emoji and depending on how you count could even be considered ahead of Ostwind 3.
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Quite a lot of movement for the weekend estimates, movies switching places all over the top 10:
#1 Planet of the Apes 215k / 235k with previews
#2 DM3 207.5k (-35%)
#3 Ostwind 3 132.5k (-41%)
#4 Emoji 115k / 130k with previews
#5 Grießnockerlaffäre 120k (#4 without previews)
#6/#7 Dunkirk 110k (-45%)
#6/#7 Valerian 110k (-36%)
#8 Baby Driver 60k (-35%/ -51%)
#9 Das Pubertier 57.5k (-23%)
#10 Spiderman 50k (-51%)
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2nd trend is up:
#1 DM3 240k
#2 Planet of the Apes 225k
#3 Emoji 175k
#4 Ostwind 3 125k
#5 Dunkirk 125k
#6 Valerian 125k
#7 Grießnockerlaffäre 100k
#8 Das Pubertier 65k
#9 Baby Driver 60k
#10 Spiderman 50k
POTC wasn't mentioned, will have to wait until after the weekend to see how it did
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32 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:
Baby?
Not mentioned yet. The first trend usually just reports the top movies, plus some smaller starts. The following trends on Saturday and Sunday should list more movies.
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First trend is up at insidekino:
#1/#2 DM3 250k
#1/#2 Planet of the Apes 250k
#3 Emoji 175k
#4 Ostwind 3 150k
#5 Dunkirk 125k
#6 Valerian 120k
#7 Grießnockerlaffäre 100k
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2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
The Austrian Film Institute must be on overtime, July numbers are already online and it's not been that good, actually one of the worst in the last 10 years. Some positive numbers - PotC5 and Baywatch both cleared the 3mil total admission mark, as did July leader DM3 which will cross 4mil total soon.
(note: last weekend was not counted for July but will instead be included in August so the low numbers are a bit skewed ... so let's wait if August makes up for it!)
Did you mean 300k instead of 3m or is that a "it would be 3m if prorated to the size of Germany"?
Because I have read about those two passing the 300k blockbuster mark in Austria, but they obviously haven't topped the 3m mark in either Austria or Germany
It seems rather odd that they would count a weekend that belonged entirely to July towards August. I don't even see a point in it, all it does is cut July down to 4 weekends while upping August to 5 for no good reason whatsoever. It would have made some sense if the weekend had been split between the months, but that clearly isn't the case here.
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Monday estimates for the weekend are up:
#1 DM3 315k
#2 Ostwind 3 225k
#3 Dunkirk 200k
#4 Valerian 170k
#5 Baby Driver 115k
#6 Spiderman 100k
#7 Das Pubertier 75k
Some further drops from the third trend, most noticeably DM3, down from 350k to 315k.
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First trend is up at insidekino:
#1 DM3 350k
#2 Ostwind 3 325k
#3 Dunkirk 250k
#4 Valerian 175k
#5 Baby Driver 125k
#6 Spiderman ~100k
#7 Das Pupertier 80k (still above OW on the 4th weekend)
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13 minutes ago, Napoleon said:
You have to say "I hope it makes $24.5 million" then, because if you say "I'm predicting $24.5 million" that's what people think you believe it will do.
Not necessarily. If you are participating in some sort of game, you don't always predict what you feel is right, but what you hope will be the outcome. Like betting on a complete outsider at a sports-event because of great odds, or always betting on your hometeam to win because you are a fan of the team, you probably don't believe that it is going to happen but you bet on it anyway, so it would be good if it actually happens.
As such, one could predict 24.5m in the weekend prediction thread even though one doesn't expect this number to be reached. In that case you are predicting a number, because you are putting it down in the prediction thread, while also predicting that this prediction likely won't succeed. Might sound weird, but it works out.
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4 hours ago, marveldcfox said:
So how much has Valerian grossed in US$ so far?
Per the international numbers at insidekino it should be around $2.9m. Weekend actuals aren't out yet though.
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DM3 should definately take over as most successful movie of the year sometime in August. Right now Fifty Shades of Grey 2 is still on top with 3.43m admissions, after both Furios 8 (3.23m) and Beauty and the Beast (3.37m) failed to get past it.
I'd think the only movies to get past DM3 after it takes the top spot should be Fack ju Göthe 3 in October and Star Wars in December, unless the Bullyparade movie really gains traction, which I don't think will happen. It should be somewhat successful, but the hype over Bully ended a long time ago.
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It doesn't seem to have a lot of hype in Germany either. It's still a week until it starts, but expectations seem rather muted at this point. It might very well start only in 3rd or 4th place. That isn't to say that the legs couldn't be very good, it's not exactly the type of movie people rush out for.
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The number for Empire strikes Back is also a bit misleading. That difference is the post-SE number, not the drop at the time of release.
The original Star Wars made 221m in its original release, adding around 44m in its first re-release that may or may not have started when the first run hadn't even been entirely over, before making another 22.5m in another re-release in 1979. So depending on how you count, ANH stood at 221m, 265m or 288m. ESB, meanwhile, reached 181m in its first release.
ANH added another 17m in 1981 and 18m in 1982, ESB added 27m in 1981 and 14.5m in 1982. After this, ANH was basically exactly 100m ahead of ESB. The next and only further re-release for both was the Special Edition in 1997, with ANH adding 138m and ESB ~68m.
So while it is technically true that ESB stands at 170m below ANH, it would be kind of odd to count that as the drop from one to the other, seeing how a sizeable part of that only came 15-20 years after release, and you wouldn't really want to wait 20 years to find out how much a movie dropped from its predecessor.
Looking at the drops in terms of percentages is a better way to judge it anyway. If TLJ would finish with "only" 725m it would be a drop of over 200m, yet a normal drop in terms of percentage. Have a movie that made 220m drop to 20m with its sequel is a whole lot harsher. The whole thing gets worse the lower the numbers of the original are.
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On 1.7.2017 at 4:13 PM, commonsense88 said:
Well considering the only thing he took with him was his cloths, that's the only thing he left there. So obviously there is no continuation of narrative, just a made up new one, so once again not a sequel. They should have called it Journey 3: VR
I don't see how that is the case. The text talks about what Alan Parrish left behind in the Jungle, a Jungle he spend most of his life in. Do you really think he didn't do anything there or didn't try to escape?
He was experienced in dealing with all sorts of things from that jungle, he knew what was in there, which means he most definately didn't sit around on his rear waiting for the time to pass. "Leaving something behind" doesn't imply in any way that he had these things with him when he entered the game.
The text matches what a sequel is perfectly. It has a new story that connects to what happened earlier. A sequel doesn't define itself through following the exact same characters, nor does it matter how close it is in time to what came earlier. All a sequel is, is a follow up to a story that came before. A reboot, on the other hand, takes the same story and tells it in a different way. Spiderman got rebooted two times in the recent past. These movies didn't follow up on the prior Maguire-Spiderman movies, hence they weren't sequels to them. The new Star Trek movies are a reboot as well, as they take already existing characters and give them a new interpretation (in part due to using new actors), with the later new movies obviously being sequels to the first new movie.
There are some rare cases where the line between a sequel and a reboot/reinterpretaton can be blurred, El Mariachi and Desperado for example, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.
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19 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:
it was poster.
I feel you giant bias against Wonder Woman
And?
That's still part of it. It doesn't take a whole lot of effort to get such a detail right.
I have no bias against Wonder Woman. And why should I?
If anything, I'd prefer it to most super-hero movies. Not to mention that Gal Gadot is as charming as a person can be.
Doesn't change the fact that using WW1 was n idiotic idea.
Sounds more like you can't handle it if someone else dares to offer an ounce of criticism against something you like...
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I'm not sure if that has all that much of an effect. Germans tend to not be overly patriotic, and WW2 movies in which Germans are obviously the bad guys haven't been unpopular either, so Germans being the bad guys shouldn't be much of a problem. If the movie is good, people will see beyond that. I'd say it has more to do with a general lack of interest in comic-book movies, and Wonder Woman being at the very bottom of relevancy when it comes to super-heroes in Germany. Not that Deadpool or Guardians of the Galaxy are more famous, but those tend to have a humour that is rather popular.
That being said, the idea to use WW1 was absolutely idiotic. I guess they didn't want to have yet another WW2-based introduction - which is where Wonder Woman should have appeared - so they just kept the setup and moved it to WW1, which makes no sense whatsoever. And I'm not talking about the use of a Soviet tank from the 1930s
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40 minutes ago, el sid said:
Most numbers look pretty or even very good but today was/is again a national holiday - Corpus Christi - which helped the films and the multiplier over the weekend will be lower than usual. Tomorrow will often be used as a bridge day, also helpful for the movies. Only the weather isn't. Still, nice numbers so far.
You mean a regional holiday
Fronleichnam, just like some other catholic holidays, is only a holiday in a small number of states. Should be the most populous states though, so the effect is quite big.
BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by George Parr
Not much change in the weekend estimates. Bullyparade (250k), Annabelle 2 (130k) and Atomic Blonde (110k) stay the same, Happy Family (72.5k) and DM3 (52.5k) are slightly up.
At least Germany wasn't the only country with a weak weekend. The USA saw terrible numbers due to a whole bunch of factors (weak holdovers, weak starters, big boxing fight and a Hurricane). In fact, as BOM reports it has been the worst weekend in 15 years!