Aristis

March 13, 2020

Thursday numbers:

#1 Känguru 18k (-49%) €154k / $172k

#2 Invisible 6,4k (-36%) €54k / $60k

#3 Nightlife 6,4k (-33%) €54k / $60k

#4 Gentlemen 5,3k (-41%) €45k / $50k

#5 Narziss&Goldmund 5,1k (-) €43k / $48k

March 12, 2020

With things getting more and more unclear, after last weeks Känguru there's another german "hope" opening, Narziss und Goldmund. What I read, the movie cost around €10M. The InsideKino prediction is 80k WE and 250k total - it'll be a huge flop...

If really all cinemas close (which in three cities already happened it seems) and stay closed for quite some time, I fear this year could be the first time ever to stay below 100M admissions...

There have been 6 deaths yet and we're probably close to 3000 infected. I fear the german reaction to all this isn't very strict. Hopefully the low death count indicates that it isn't that bad...

March 9, 2020

Weekend Estimates:

#1 Känguru 320k (4-day), 375k (i.P.) - 3rd biggest OW of the year

#2 Onward 157,5k (4-day), 185k (i.P.) - 9th biggest OW of the year

#3 Sonic 110k (-43%) 1,115M

#4 Nightlife 110k (-35%) 1,025M - 4th 1M+ movie of the year

#5 Invisible Man 100k (-16%) 245k

#6 Gentlemen 65k (-26%/-40%) 205k

#7 Bloodshot 57,5k (i.P.)

#8 Parasite 47,5k (-39%) 937,5k - great drop considering the DVD release was last Thursday

March 7, 2020

5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

700 cases in Germany and will reach 1000 tomm. How come there is no impact at all?

There were some surveys saying that people in Germany don't really fear the virus that much, which is a bit surprising to me too... The only thing that changed seem to be some panic buyings.

Maybe it is because many people trust the government. Especially the health ministers image greatly improved since the beginning of the spreading virus.

March 6, 2020

1st Trend:

#1 Känguru 305k (4-day), 360k (i.P.)

#2 Onward 150k (i.P.)

#3 Invisible Men 95k (-20%)

#4 Nightlife 95k (-43%)

#5 Sonic 90k (-53%)

#6 Gentlemen 80k (-9%/-27%)

Onward is awful and for Känguru Chroniken I had higher hopes too...

March 6, 2020

Thursday numbers:

#1 Känguru 35k // €300k / $335k

#2 Invisible Man 10k (-17%) €90k / $100k

#3 Onward 9,5k // €82,5k / $92,5k

#4 Nightlife 9,5k (-50%) €81,5k / $91k

#5 Gentlemen 9k (-14%) €78k / $87,5k

March 2, 2020

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean over 50 new cases in 24 hours seems pretty bad to me, espescially considering exponential growth and all.

While the situation is tense, our government seems to be very cautios with shutting down things. Of course things can change but atm I don't see cinemas being closed... I think the bigger problem might be people panicking and deciding not to go to cinemas, which at least as of now doesn't seem to be big of a problem.

Side note: Half of the german cases are from one city.

March 2, 2020

Monday estimates:

#1 Sonic 190k (-25%) 980k

#2 Nightlife 165k (-19%) 880k

#3 Invisible Man 120k

#4 Gentlemen 110kk

#5 Lassie 85k (-6%/-19%) 235k

#6 Parasite 75k (-32%) 850k

#7 Call of the Wild 50k (-40%) 165k

March 2, 2020

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

150 cases in Germany now. Are they gonna close cinemas there?

It'll probably affect moviegoing when it's getting worse, I don't think they'll close cinemas anytime soon though.

February 28, 2020

Thursday numbers:

#1 Sonic 21,5k (-4%) €150k / $165k

#2 Nightlife 19k (-14%) €160k / $175k

#3 The Invisible Man 12k / €110k /$120k

#4 The Gentlemen 11k / €95k / $105k

#5 Parasite 10k (-29%) €85k / $95k

February 18, 2020

Actuals are in for 2019 and, well, it's not good. It's even below the 120M I hoped for...

Yearly admissions 118,6M (+12,6%)

Yearly gross €1,024B ($1,105B, applying XR as of now) (+13,9%)

TP €8,63 ($9,32) (+1,1%)

http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm#Montag_17._Februar_2020

InsideKino has a nice stat with (by year):

Besucher (admissions)

Umsatz (Box Office in €)

Ticket (TP)

Orte (number of cities with a cinema)

Säle (screens)

% (share of german movies)

% 3D (3D share)

https://www.ffa.de/aid=1394.html?newsdetail=20200217-1351_ffa-kinobilanz-2019-deutliche-erholung-aber-noch-potential-fuer-den-deutschen-kinomarkt

February 15, 2020

2nd Trend:

#1 Sonic 450k

#2 Nightlife 325k 4-day (375k i.P.)

#3 Dolittle 150k (-6%)

#4 BoP 130k (-6%/-16%)

#5 BB3 130k (-6%)

#6 Enkel 80k (-20%/-26%)

#7 1917 80k (-6%)

#8 Parasite 75k (+++)

...

Little Women 55k (-26%)

Bombshell 37,5k

Frozen2 30k (-17%)

Jumanji 30k (-0%)

Knives Out 25k (-31%)

February 14, 2020

18 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Will Frozen 2 eventually pass $60M in Germany?

Would happen with ~6,67M admissions so it really should.

February 14, 2020

Thursday numbers:

#1 Sonic 45k (-) €320k/$345k

#2 Nightlife 30k (-) €235k/$255k

#3 Parasite 15k (+++) €125k/$135k - That's the biggest Thursday yet (18th WE) and will be the best WE above the first (52,5k). On BlickpunktFilm they said it already is the biggest Korean movie ever and if it passes Hero (560k) it'll be the biggest Asian movie since 2001 (Tiger&Dragon 865k)!

InsideKino expects 75k/550k atm

#4 Dolittle 12k (-23%) €100k/$110k

#5 BoP 11,5k (-42%) €105k/$115k

February 10, 2020

A very underwhelming WE, though thanks to relatively warm weather and the storm Sabine it was deflated. Hopefully we'll see some great holds next WE!

#1 Dolittle 160k

#2 BOP 140k (155k i.P.)

#3 BB3 135k

February 7, 2020

Thursday numbers

#1 BOP 20k (-) €175k / $192,5k - awful... I hope it at least gets to 200k including previews...

Some other DC OD:

BvS 140k

Joker 140k

SSquad 115k

AQM 60k

WW 60k

JL 35k

#2 Dolittle 15,5k (+24%) €135k / $150k - this is great! So it should easily be #1 for the WE again...

#3 BB3 15k (-35%) €140k / $155k

#4 Enkel für Anfänger 12,5k (-) €100k / $110k

#5 Little Women 12k (+20%) €105k / $115k

#6 1917 12k (-20%) €100k / $110k

February 2, 2020

17 minutes ago, Aristis said:

3rd Trend:

#1 BB3 235k (-24%)

#2 Dolittle 215k (4-day), 245k (i.P.)

#3 Hochzeit 145k (-13%/-31% i.P.)

#4 1917 117,5k (-17%)

#5 Little Women 90k

#6 Lindenberg 75k (-30%)

#7 Heinzels 70k

#8 Countdown 67,5k

#9 Knives Out 65k (-32%)

#10 Frozen2 52,5k (-34%)

14 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Hmm... SW9 and Jumajil are out of top 10?

#11 Jumanji2 47,5k (-37%)

#14 SW9 42,5k (-48%)

February 2, 2020

3rd Trend:

#1 BB3 235k (-24%)

#2 Dolittle 215k (4-day), 245k (i.P.)

#3 Hochzeit 145k (-13%/-31% i.P.)

#4 1917 117,5k (-17%)

#5 Little Women 90k

#6 Lindenberg 75k (-30%)

#7 Heinzels 70k

#8 Countdown 67,5k

#9 Knives Out 65k (-32%)

#10 Frozen2 52,5k (-34%)

February 1, 2020

On 1/31/2020 at 1:08 PM, PKMLover said:

Is 6.7M still on the table for Frozen 2?

Should be at 6,55M after a 50k (-37%) WE, so I'd say yes.

January 31, 2020

Thursday number:

#1 BB3 23k (-34%) €210k / $230k

#2 1917 15k (-21%) €125k / $138k

#3 Hochzeit 13k (-19%) €110k / $120k - I would have hoped for a worse hold...

#4 Dolittle 12,5k (-) $125k / $138k

#5 Little Women 10k (-) €90k / $100k

January 28, 2020

5 hours ago, Joel M said:

1999-2000 (Athens-Thessaloniki admissions)

175k for SW1? Where does the rest hide? Lol.

Seriously, is that the total number? Also 18th is really low...

January 27, 2020

Monday numbers:

#1 BB3 305k (-31%/-37%) 885k

#2 Hochzeit 165k (4-day), 205k (i.P.)

#3 1917 140k (-18%/-27%) 400k

#4 Lindenberg 105k (-26%/-37%) 325k

#5 Knives Out 95k (-31%) 810k

#6 SW9 80k (-43%) 5,085M

#7 Frozen2 80k (-27%) 6,495M

#8 Jumanji2 75k (-32%) 2,310M

...

Jojo Rabbit 70k

January 24, 2020

As I'm a bit later I already put in the WE projection in Italics:

SW:

Spoiler

WE	SW7			SW8			SW9
1st	2.139		2.139	1.627		1.627	1.388		1.710
2nd	1.161	-46%	4.431	721	-56%	2.838	1.092	-21%	3.384
3rd	848	-27%	6.566	849	18%	4.393	610	-44%	4.372
4th	583	-31%	7.630	467	-45%	5.211	253	-58%	4.763
5th	324	-44%	8.094	202	-57%	5.503	140	-45%	4.967
6th	204	-37%	8.380	110	-46%	5.663	80	-43%	5.080
7th	145	-29%	8.582	70	-36%	5.761
8th	91	-37%	8.719	42	-40%	5.822
9th	66	-27%	8.819	24	-43%	5.857
10th	39	-41%	8.874	11	-54%	5.877
			9,060M			5,906M			5,250M

Frozen:

Spoiler

WE	Minions			Frozen2
1st	935		935	1.430		1.635
2nd	1.040	11%	2.394	941	-34%	2.822
3rd	760	-27%	3.598	708	-25%	3.704
4th	537	-29%	4.419	468	-34%	4.307
5th	366	-32%	5.147	393	-16%	4.808
6th	195	-47%	5.521	485	23%	5.505
7th	242	24%	5.893	356	-27%	6.042
8th	111	-54%	6.160	150	-58%	6.267
9th	81	-27%	6.323	109	-27%	6.400
10th	125	54%	6.497	80	-27%	6.495
			6.946M			6,700M

They will still be very close after this WE...

	Frozen1						Frozen2
WE	Weekend			Mid-week	Week		Weekend			Mid-week	Week
1st	572		654	124	696		1.430		1.635	246	1.676
2nd	577	1%	1.355	121	698	0%	941	-34%	2.822	174	1.115	-33%
3rd	476	-18%	1.952	114	590	-15%	708	-25%	3.704	135	843	-24%
4th	433	-9%	2.499	203	636	8%	468	-34%	4.307	108	576	-32%
5th	540	25%	3.242	194	734	15%	393	-16%	4.808	212	605	5%
6th	402	-26%	3.838	95	497	-32%	485	23%	5.505	181	666	10%
7th	158	-61%	4.091	19	177	-64%	356	-27%	6.042	75	431	-35%
8th	107	-32%	4.217	13	120	-32%	150	-58%	6.267	24	174	-60%
9th	81	-24%	4.311	12	93	-23%	109	-27%	6.400	15	124	-29%
10th	89	10%	4.412				80	-27%	6.495
		0	4.767M			0		0	6,700M			0

Who would have thought F2 could be this close to the leggy first so late in the run...

Jumanji:

Spoiler

WE	Jumanji 1			Jumanji 2
1st	198		198	383		401
2nd	314	59%	681	303	-21%	791
3rd	299	-5%	1.273	404	33%	1.355
4th	168	-44%	1.484	338	-16%	1.851
5th	113	-33%	1.623	171	-49%	2.086
6th	88	-22%	1.729	111	-35%	2.221
7th	63	-28%	1.809	80	-28%	2.320
8th	49	-22%	1.875
			2,009M			2,500M

January 19, 2020

3rd Trend:

Most movies increase!

#1 BB3 475k

#2 1917 180k

#3 Lindenberg 150k

#4 SW9 140k (-45%)

#5 Knives Out 140k (-25%)

#6 Frozen2 110k (-27%)

#7 Jumanji2 110k (-36%)

#8 Zauberhafte Schwestern 75k (-17%/-32% i.P.)

#9 Geheimnis 60k (-29%)

#10 Rosa Kaninchen 60k (-35%)

#11 Spies in disguise 55k (-11%)

#12 Weathering with you 50k

January 15, 2020

SW vs SW:

Spoiler

WE

SW7

SW8

SW9

1st

2.139

1.627

1.388

1.710

2nd

1.161

-46%

4.431

721

-56%

2.838

1.092

-21%

3.384

3rd

848

-27%

6.566

849

18%

4.393

610

-44%

4.372

4th

583

-31%

7.630

467

-45%

5.211

253

-58%

4.763

5th

324

-44%

8.094

202

-57%

5.503

6th

204

-37%

8.380

110

-46%

5.663

7th

145

-29%

8.582

70

-36%

5.761

8th

91

-37%

8.719

42

-40%

5.822

9th

66

-27%

8.819

24

-43%

5.857

10th

39

-41%

8.874

11

-54%

5.877

9,060M

5,906M

5,200M

Frozen vs Frozen:

Spoiler

Frozen1

Frozen2

WE

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

1st

572

654

124

696

1.430

1.635

246

1.676

2nd

577

1%

1.355

121

698

0%

941

-34%

2.822

174

1.115

-33%

3rd

476

-18%

1.952

114

590

-15%

708

-25%

3.704

135

843

-24%

4th

433

-9%

2.499

203

636

8%

468

-34%

4.307

108

576

-32%

5th

540

25%

3.242

194

734

15%

393

-16%

4.808

212

605

5%

6th

402

-26%

3.838

95

497

-32%

485

23%

5.505

181

666

10%

7th

158

-61%

4.091

19

177

-64%

356

-27%

6.042

75

431

-35%

8th

107

-32%

4.217

13

120

-32%

150

-58%

6.267

9th

81

-24%

4.311

12

93

-23%

10th

89

10%

4.412

0

4.767M

0

6,700M

0

WE

Minions

Frozen2

1st

935

1.430

1.635

2nd

1.040

11%

2.394

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

760

-27%

3.598

708

-25%

3.704

4th

537

-29%

4.419

468

-34%

4.307

5th

366

-32%

5.147

393

-16%

4.808

6th

195

-47%

5.521

485

23%

5.505

7th

242

24%

5.893

356

-27%

6.042

8th

111

-54%

6.160

150

-58%

6.267

9th

81

-27%

6.323

10th

125

54%

6.497

6.946M

6,700M

Jumanji vs Jumanji:

Spoiler

WE

Jumanji 1

Jumanji 2

1st

198

383

401

2nd

314

59%

681

303

-21%

791

3rd

299

-5%

1.273

404

33%

1.355

4th

168

-44%

1.484

338

-16%

1.851

5th

113

-33%

1.623

171

-49%

2.086

6th

88

-22%

1.729

7th

63

-28%

1.809

8th

49

-22%

1.875

2,009M

2,500M

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