Aristis
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Posts posted by Aristis
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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:
Frozen II: 900k (-37% / -45%) (2.78M total)
I hope that is a rather low prediction since IM would be down from OW. I won't except anything lower than 950k
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Thursday numbers:
Frozen2 70k (-36%) €575k/$630k
Geheimnis 30k (-30%) €265k/$290k
Hustlers 11,1k €95k/$105k
Last Christmas 10,8k (-10%) €90k/$100k
Joker 6,7k (-33%) €61,5k/$67,5k
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1 hour ago, edroger3 said:
Well... if they contribute to BO and this helps some cinemas as the Paris, better Netflix helps reducing its own damage.
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1 hour ago, Poseidon said:
Mid-sized Hits are literally dead. Movies that easily got to 1m admissions 10 years ago now only hit 500k.
That's where Netflix and Co really hit hard.
18 minutes ago, edroger3 said:I absolutely agree. Nowadays people don't "go to the cinema just to go to the cinema". Including me.
Film that I watched at cinema in 2009: 4 each month.
Film that I watched at cinema in 2019: 4 each year (AE - Joker - F2 + SW9 in december). My most anticipated this year: Stranger Things 3
True, I thought lately that mostly "event"-movies are successful but I wasn't able to connect it that way.
Maybe someday Netflix will buy cinemas for customers to watch Netflix together...
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Just some more statistics (mostly) about F2 OW:
TOP10 2019 OW:
Admissions
Theaters
PTA
1
1.671.661
717
2.331
Avengers: Endgame
2
1.429.642
743
1.924
Frozen2
3
924.217
700
1.320
Das perfekte Geheimnis
4
921.781
746
1.236
The Lion King
5
841.002
690
1.219
Joker
6
640.081
633
1.011
Captain Marvel
7
615.664
669
920
HTTYD3
8
590.145
681
867
IT2
9
491.783
621
792
Hobbs & Shaw
10
438.998
610
720
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm
With SW9 yet to come TOP3 will be 1M+. But with SW9 opening on a wednesday too it isn't safe to open above F2... I hope for the best though.
TOP10 Animation OW:
Admissions
Theaters
PTA
1
2.395.588
1.061
2.258
Ice Age 2
2
2.032.136
1.004
2.024
Finding Nemo
3
1.670.397
754
2.215
The Simpsons Movie
4
1.475.967
841
1.755
Madagascar 2
5
1.465.302
794
1.845
Ice Age
6
1.457.891
861
1.693
Ice Age 3
7
1.429.642
743
1.924
Frozen 2
8
1.273.707
888
1.434
Shrek 2
9
1.226.475
834
1.471
Madagascar
10
1.106.059
820
1.349
Ice Age 4
http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm
TOP OW Alltime:
OW
Theaters
PTA
Year
28
1.682.806
982
1.714
Harry Potter 5
07
29
1.681.087
857
1.962
JB - Spectre
15
30
1.671.661
717
2.331
Avengers - Endgame
19
31
1.670.397
754
2.215
The Simpsons Movie
07
32
1.627.277
814
1.999
Star Wars 8
17
…
39
1.457.891
861
1.693
Ice Age 3
09
40
1.450.024
865
1.676
The Da Vinci Code
06
41
1.429.642
743
1.924
Frozen 2
19
42
1.409.004
950
1.483
Spider-Man
02
43
1.353.030
739
1.831
Fifty Shades of Grey
15
http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord.htm
And the last one,
TOP OW Alltime in €:
4-day OW in €
Incl. previews
Year
1
25.345.223
Star Wars 7
15
2
19.755.398
Star Wars 8
17
3
19.223.781
24.321.864 (5-day)
Avengers - Endgame
19
4
17.733.509
Fack Ju Göhte 2
15
5
16.666.356
Harry Potter 1
01
…
29
12.401.366
Fifty Shades of Grey 1
15
30
12.347.704
14.777.539 (5-day)
Fast & Furious 7
15
31
12.275.659
14.028.336 (5-day)
Frozen 2
19
32
12.144.229
Matrix Reloaded
03
33
11.938.134
Star Wars 1
99
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The InsideKino prediction for the 2nd WE is 930k (-35%) 2,785M. That would be good and the biggest 2nd WE of the year beating A:EG (871k). I still secretly hope it can get to 1M+ 2nd WE which happened the last time in 2017 for the local FJG3 (1,07M)...
2019 could look something like this in the end:
Frozen2 6M
SW9 5,7M
TLK 5,5M
A:EG 5,1M
Geheimnis 4,4M
Joker 4,1M
(I hope the italic ones will get higher...)
It seems strange that this year has to fight to get to 120M+ admissions as the Top10 is rather strong:
2019 (with the numbers above) ~40M
2018 ~30M --> 105,4M
2017 ~37M --> 122,3M
2016 ~34M --> 121,1M
But below that 2019 is probably too weak to easily get there as we have only 21x 1M+ movies yet (22x including SW9, which is save) compared to 30x (2018), 32x (2017) and 31x (2016). But maybe the strong year end can rescue us...
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2 hours ago, PKMLover said:
What is ATP for Frozen 2 in France?
$14,29M (according to BOM), 1,98M, ATP ~7,2€
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2 hours ago, Taruseth said:
Actuals for Frozen II are another 20k higher!
Actuals: 1,635,215
Also in revenue (€) it's the 2nd highest start for an animation movie only behind Ice Age 2!
I wonder if it could have done even better with more showings. Most 2D showings on Saturday and Sunday were almost sold out. There wasn't any showing of F2 after 8pm and more 3D than 2D shows (probably Disney demanded that). And according to the InsideKino forums the same case was for some other cinemas.
Anyway, great OW. I hope it'll get the admissions it lost this WE on its 2nd WE.
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4 hours ago, Linkinitouille said:
It will surely beat Endgame but won't beat TLK (which Disney France said it crossed 10M but it's doubted by the numbers).
InsideKino tweeted that too and I looked at JP-BO were it's still at 9,75M admissions. So who should be trusted, Disney or all other sources?
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4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Thank you @Omni i thought you would be excited for F2. Can it win the year or can SW9 win?
TLK €37M >>>> SW7 €25M >> SW8 €15M
I don't think SW9 can overcome this huge gap between SW7 and TLK
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Frozen2 opens with 1,98M, more than the double the first including previews. Now it's all about the legs
WE
Frozen 1
Frozen 2
1st
776
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954
1.980
---
1.980
2nd
656
-15%
1.697
3rd
619
-6%
2.434
4th
752
21%
3.471
5th
646
-14%
4.384
6th
151
-77%
4.565
7th
124
-18%
4.698
8th
95
-23%
4.802
5,152M
6,000M
F1 had a multi of 6,6x - F2 shouln't have a problem getting to 3x+ and 6M+.
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I hope the actual WE is higher than $14,9M, cause that would probably be only around 1,55M and I want it to be past that
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"The first day in France set a new Disney Animation record with $2.6M, while Germany posted the 3rd highest animated opening day of all time at $1.9M. Both markets are currently at $3M."
So Deadline wants to tell me that F2 did $0,4M on Thursday in France, down 85% from OD?
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25 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:
Frozen II takes biggest ever opening for an animation film in Philippines. Earned 25.4 M Peso ($5 M) on OD ..
It's $0,5M, isn't it?
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5 minutes ago, PKMLover said:
Is this good for more than $50M final?
$50M is a good target, probably needs around 4,5x multipler from 4-day OW. Animation often has great legs, this year for example Pets2 has 12,5x, AB2 over 7x and Abominable over 6x.
And Minions (that opened on a very hot WE with 935k) got to 6,95M with 7,4x despite the big OW. So, if F2 isn't extremely frontloaded, 4,5x should be easy.
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1st Trend:
Frozen 1,245M (4-day), 1,45M (5-day)
4-day ~$11,7M, 5-day ~$13,7M
This would be the 2nd biggest OW of the year (#1 A:EG 1,67M, #3rd Geheimnis 924k, #4th TLK 921k).
Geheimnis 375k (-36%) 3,3M
Joker 85k (-41%) 3,825M
Last Christmas 85k (-34%/-50%)
Le Mans 66 / FvF 65k (-30%/-41%)
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Thursday Numbers:
#1 Frozen 2 110k // €935k/$1,04M - 2-day total 315k / ~€2,68M / ~€2,97M
#2 Geheimnis 43k (-31%) €375k/$415k
#3 Last Christmas 12k (-11%) €100k/$110k
#4 Joker 10k (-41%) €90k/$100k
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7 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
Original was $48mn. With 7mn, it could be $80mn.
Don't forget this is more a kids movie - Germany has high TP but not that high for kids. It'd probably be more like $60M to $63M. And this is a very early prediction without even knowing the WE. I think $50M would be a better target first...
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3 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:
let's just say a >1 million OW is looking very realistic and 5mil total are nearly a lock from there on with holiday season on the horizon. a 1.5mil OW makes even 6mil look possible.
Yeah, it's better not to get too excited too soon...
The OD is indeed the 3rd biggest of the year with around 204k
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So, the InsideKino prediction is online and... crazy high. I really hope this might come true, but we should still be very cautious (he's known as optimistic):
WE
Cume
1
1.500.000
---
1.725.000
7.000.000
1
Frozen 2
2
440.000
-25%
3.325.000
4.250.000
4
Das perfekte Geheimnis
3
90.000
-30%
295.000
600.000
2
Last Christmas
4
87.000
-40%
3.820.000
4.000.000
7
Joker
5
75.000
---
75.000
200.000
1
Doctor Sleep
http://www.insidekino.de/DProg/ProgNOV212019.htm
So he thinks
OD: 225k
OW: 1,5M (4-day), 1,725M (5-day)
Total: 7M
This would be awesome!
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3 hours ago, Taruseth said:
A:EG was 462k.
200k sounds really good, who had holiday apart from Saxony though?
Like it should have a shot at a 1M 4-day opening and hopefully a total close to the first.
Yeah, I changed it as soon as I saw what I did 😬
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MarkG from InsideKino wrote that first numbers indicate the OD for Frozen2 could top TLK (with 70% of the country having holiday compared to 20% now). TLK opened to 208k so we should have 200k+.
Top OD 2019:
A:EG 462k
TLK 208k
F2 200k+
Geheimnis 165k (after 120k previews)
Joker 140k (after 100k previews)
CM 125k
IT2 100k (after 40k previews)
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Frozen opened to 572k (654k i.P.) in 629 theaters and went on to 4,77M admissions - an awesome multipler of more than 8x.
Biggest CGI animation:
Nr.
Admissions
€
Theatres
OWeek
1
Finding Nemo
8.839.084
46.360.180
1.049
2.588.509
20.11.2003
2
Ice Age 2
8.747.671
48.754.480
1.111
3.612.053
06.04.2006
3
Ice Age 3
8.709.881
56.530.290
875
2.248.629
01.07.2009
4
Ice Age
7.299.318
39.212.946
875
2.174.580
21.03.2002
5
Minions
6.945.769
57.929.442
803
1.353.739
02.07.2015
6
Madagascar
6.720.790
35.110.604
861
2.000.100
14.07.2005
7
Ice Age 4
6.700.208
52.041.305
825
1.497.726
02.07.2012
8
Ratatouille
6.116.087
34.026.400
860
1.232.969
03.10.2007
9
Madagascar 2
6.070.690
34.544.335
841
1.793.367
04.12.2008
10
The Lion King
5.532.461
50.819.752
769
1.379.689
17.07.2019
11
Shrek 2
5.322.586
27.920.179
895
1.815.591
01.07.2004
12
Frozen 1
4.766.871
35.762.932
791
778.397
28.11.2013
13
Despicable Me 3
4.651.715
37.923.183
782
1.245.812
06.07.2017
14
Madagascar 3
3.973.140
30.542.221
748
1.102.554
02.10.2012
15
Tangled
3.936.183
31.140.234
612
731.080
09.12.2010
http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/Dcgi.htm
Frozen still has the 9th biggest 5th WE and Week (down just 6% from OW and OWeek)
5th WE
WE
Theaters
1
967.139
809
Titanic
98
2
800.703
662
TLK
94
3
636.281
648
Aladdin
93
4
598.175
738
Avatar
10
5
582.867
1.152
HP1
01
6
575.886
645
Jurassic Park
93
7
566.862
768
Intouchables
12
8
555.368
1.070
LOTR1
02
9
540.149
791
Frozen 1
13
10
529.804
868
ID
96
5th Week
Week
Theaters
1
1.304.338
809
Titanic
98
2
1.054.262
662
TLK
94
3
861.418
1.152
HP1
01
4
832.417
648
Aladdin
93
5
816.879
738
Avatar
10
6
778.191
645
Jurassic Park
93
7
762.943
768
Intouchables
12
8
742.477
671
Manitu
01
9
734.196
791
Frozen 1
13
10
721.385
1.070
LOTR1
02
And the 8th biggest 6th WE
6th WE
WE
Theaters
1
853.614
808
Titanic
98
2
787.035
1.152
HP1
01
3
593.283
665
Avatar
10
4
548.991
671
TLK
94
5
478.577
769
Intouchables
12
6
437.179
507
Schindlers List
94
7
433.915
647
Jurassic Park
93
8
401.666
750
Frozen 1
13
9
389.831
994
Finding Nemo
03
10
379.659
504
Home Alone
91
http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOWochenrekorde.htm
Frozen 2 opens in 743 theatres now. Funny thing that I just saw, Finding Nemo opened the same day 16 years ago (20.11.2003) - that has to be a good sign
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17 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
Next weekend: The big opener is Frozen2, presales look a bit lackluster but that's perfectly normal for family fare. #1 should be no problem but can it get to 1mil OW? With a target demo that young, frontloadedness will be a smaller factor than with other releases - otoh you'd be hard pressed to spot a girl NOT wearing and/or using some Frozen merchandise, this must be the most-merchandised title in recent history. However it opens, this will work its way up the 2019 charts throughout December …
A completely different audience gets targeted by Doctor Sleep which might become #2 (especially as it will eat into Joker's demo …)
Everything less than 1M would be disappointing to me (especially since it's 5-day). But I hope for 4-day 1M+...
As for Doctor Sleep: It won't become 2nd - Geheimnis is still very strong. The best it might hope for is 3rd, and seeing the results in other countries even that isn't safe... Also it opens in only 330 theaters.
BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)
in International Box Office
Posted
Lol, don't know how that could happen
But maybe *Ich werde nicht, außer irgendetwas unter 950k* was what I wanted to say