Aristis
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Posts posted by Aristis
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I'm not yet sold on the idea of SW9 not reaching 5M, I mean if so AEG remaining at the top wouldn't be that far away 😬
On 12/16/2019 at 2:32 PM, Aristis said:AEG is at €57,53M. F2 needs more than 6,85M admissions to reach that. So that shouldn't be the problem. But SW9 would have to be below 4,9M admissions to not get the yearly crown in gross. So AEG won't stay at the top.
But this looks extremely weak for a SW movie. I've counted some numbers for the first time and in only one cinema (so this could be just an anecdote) but it actually lost presales from yesterday to today...
This movie will probably have to fight to become even 2nd of the year. Awful. But we don't have actuals yet for Germany so maybe we should wait...
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10 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:
Yeah, I know what happened: it bombed in China, and made over $700 million less than The Force Awakens, and didn't exactly give any good-faith with Solo's box office nor some of the attractions at Galaxy's Edge, not to mention Rise of the Resistance - which opened a few weeks ago - landed significantly below what Disney had expected ~
What I meant: good critics don't translate to good WOM and maybe it's the same the other way round. Audiences could like the amount of fan service the movie seems to offer (I won't see SW9 before Monday so I can't really say much on that untill then) or the damage that SW8 did is irreversible.
At this point SW is dead in many parts of the world and SW9 relies heavily on a few countries that (after the predecessor) might want opinions of fans rather than critics. We'll see...
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1 hour ago, Bart Allen said:
With the WOM being ABSOLUTELY POOR, this isn't looking good - especially when you factor out the Asia market ~
Should be fun 😂
Well, you don't know WOM yet. You know critics opinions. They were great for SW8 though and you know what happened...
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F1 vs F2:
WE
Frozen1
Frozen2
1st
572
654
1.430
1.635
2nd
577
1%
1.355
941
-34%
2.822
3rd
476
-18%
1.952
708
-25%
3.704
4th
433
-9%
2.499
468
-34%
4.307
5th
540
25%
3.242
6th
402
-26%
3.838
7th
158
-61%
4.091
8th
107
-32%
4.217
9th
81
-24%
4.311
10th
89
10%
4.412
4.767M
6.000M
SpoilerFrozen1
Frozen2
WE
Weekend
Mid-
week
Week
Weekend
Mid-
week
Week
1st
572
654
124
696
1.430
1.635
246
1.676
2nd
577
1%
1.355
121
698
0%
941
-34%
2.822
174
1.115
-33%
3rd
476
-18%
1.952
114
590
-15%
708
-25%
3.704
135
843
-24%
4th
433
-9%
2.499
203
636
8%
468
-34%
4.307
5th
540
25%
3.242
194
734
15%
6th
402
-26%
3.838
95
497
-32%
7th
158
-61%
4.091
19
177
-64%
8th
107
-32%
4.217
13
120
-32%
9th
81
-24%
4.311
12
93
-23%
10th
89
10%
4.412
00000
0000
4.767M
00000
00000
0000
00000
0000
6.000M
00000
00000
0000
Minions vs F2:
WE
Minions
Frozen2
1st
935
935
1.430
1.635
2nd
1.040
11%
2.394
941
-34%
2.822
3rd
760
-27%
3.598
708
-25%
3.704
4th
537
-29%
4.419
468
-34%
4.307
5th
366
-32%
5.147
6th
195
-47%
5.521
7th
242
24%
5.893
8th
111
-54%
6.160
9th
81
-27%
6.323
10th
125
54%
6.497
6.946M
6.000M
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1
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3
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WE
Frozen 1
Frozen 2
1st
776
---
954
1.980
---
1.980
2nd
656
-15%
1.697
1.347
-32%
3.485
3rd
619
-6%
2.434
866
-36%
4.439
4th
752
21%
3.471
558
-36%
5.077
5th
646
-14%
4.384
6th
151
-77%
4.565
7th
124
-18%
4.698
8th
95
-23%
4.802
5,152M
7,000M
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6 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
What are chances of Endgame remaining biggest in gross.
AEG is at €57,53M. F2 needs more than 6,85M admissions to reach that. So that shouldn't be the problem. But SW9 would have to be below 4,9M admissions to not get the yearly crown in gross. So AEG won't stay at the top.
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Monday numbers:
#1 Frozen 2 470k (-34%) 4,3M (biggest 4th WE of the year)
#2 Jumanji 2 400k (Jumanji 1 220k i.P.)
#3 Geheimnis 140k (-31%) 4,185M (biggest 7th WE of the year)
#4 Last Christmas 72,5k (-17%) 675k
#5 Rabe Socke 3 50k
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1 hour ago, Feanor said:
So is 6M admissions still in play for Frozen 2?
I'd say it's still more probable to reach 6M than not. It should be at 4,7M next WE at least after 300k WE. Holidays after that will get it there
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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:
Frozen II: 450k (4.29M) (-36%)*
1 hour ago, Taruseth said:* best 4th weekend this year, but I hope it can get a higher weekend, hopefully slightly above 500k but to be honest I doubt it.
I think he's probably on the low end of WE projection. While the IM to reach 450k would be the 2nd biggest yet it would still be far below LW:
Thursday
IM
WE
WE1
110
x13,00
1.430
WE2
70
-36,36%
x13,44
941
-34,20%
WE3
43
-38,57%
x16,47
708
-24,76%
WE4
32,5
-24,42%
x13,85
450
-36,44%
500k would need x15,4 which (after LW) seems reachable, though I don't know if this x16+ was just an outlier and this WE it normalises. Maybe because of the competition of Jumanji2 it won't come as high LW?
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One more country without updates...
WE 05.12. - 08.12.:
1
26.521
-23
1.081.487
8
Maleficent 2
2
22.845
-30
2.850.411
10
Joker
3
14.107
---
14.107
1
Ready or Not
4
13.729
---
13.729
1
The Good Liar
5
11.057
-36
201.278
6
Die Addams Family
6
8.619
-52
34.723
2
Midway
7
8.102
-37
356.202
6
Terminator - Dark Fate
8
7.885
-49
121.254
4
Gemini Man
9
6.440
-49
55.268
3
Downton Abbey
10
6.066
---
6.066
1
The Snow Queen
Argentina really needs a big movie to open. Joker led the Top10 for 8 weeks just to be topped by another movie in its 7th week...
Top10 2019:
1
6.629.947
Toy Story 4
2
3.895.839
Avengers: EG
3
3.607.650
The Lion King
4
2.850.411
Joker
5
1.779.039
La odisea de los giles
6
1.578.127
Ralph 2
7
1.352.496
Captain Marvel
8
1.343.670
Aladdin
9
1.302.794
Pets 2
10
1.285.266
Spider-Man: FFH
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Same as in the romanian Thread there hasn't been an update in a long time...
Frozen 2 had a big OW of 619k, just 9k behind the 10th biggest ever and more than 4x the OW of Frozen 1 (151k). F1 had some great holds to get to 1,13M+ (total after the last WE in Top10). F2 reached that after only two weeks though...
F2:
#1 619k
#2 405k (-35%) 1,261M
#3 388k (-4%) 1,866M
In the last years there have been some great holds this time too, but I don't understand much from polish BO (and couldn't find anything on why holds are great this time) and therefore don't know if this alreasy was the last one or there is another before dropping 70%+...
1
387.917
-4%
1.865.767
3
Frozen 2
2
180.408
-10%
503.901
2
Jak poslubic milionera
3
105.038
---
125.010
1
Arctic Dogs
4
69.327
-2%
197.482
2
Knives Out
5
34.192
---
37.730
1
Ailos Reise
6
28.230
-44%
571.950
4
Proceder
7
25.242
-33
475.087
4
1800 gramow
8
22.894
+57%
988.137
6
Maleficent 2
9
21.004
---
27.310
1
Saving Flora
10
18.367
+
37.137
3
Julemandens datter
Top10 2019:
1
2.488.502
The Lion King
2
2.387.417
Miszmasz czyli Kogel Mogel 3
3
1.911.478
Joker
4
1.869.767
Polityka
5
1.865.767
Frozen 2
6
1.838.596
Avengers: Endgame
7
1.433.565
Planeta Singli 3
8
1.405.926
Pets 2
9
1.338.266
Boze Cialo
10
1.206.802
HTTYD3
Frozen2 will pass 2M next WE and with another great hold has a chance to top TLK.
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There hasn't been an update in some time so I'll just post some stats from InsideKino.
Frozen 2 opened with 164k admissions for the 4th biggest OW ever:
1
366.195
Fast & Furious 8
2
196.210
Fast & Furious 7
3
175.584
Star Wars 7
4
164.400*
Frozen 2
5
154.200*
Avengers: EG
6
150.501
FSOG2
7
148.642
Hobbit 3
8
146.898
FSOG3
9
145.702
FSOG
10
135.200*
Avengers: IW
WE 06.12. - 08.12.
1
89.995
---
89.995
1
Jumanji 2
2
49.400*
-54
377.900*
3
Frozen 2
3
8.954
-59
35.607
2
Playing with Fire
4
8.792
-51
33.153
2
Jexi
5
7.069
-64
31.976
2
Charlies Angels
6
7.043
-43
130.007
5
Maria, Regina Romaniei
7
5.834
-38
76.231
4
Last Christmas
8
4.712
-48
79.387
4
FvF – Le Mans 66
9
3.013
---
3.013
1
Systemsprenger
10
2.355
-57
26.942
3
Doctor Sleep
TOP10 2019:
1
575.800*
Avengers: EG
2
519.889
Joker
3
430.083
Hobbs & Shaw
4
377.900*
Frozen 2
5
356.400*
The Lion King
6
299.200*
Captain Marvel
7
292.600*
Maleficent 2
8
260.531
Oh, Ramona
9
249.505
Spider-Man - FFH
10
226.100*
Aladdin
*Those are estimates since it seems that Disney doesn't publish actuals
http://www.insidekino.de/BO/RO2019.htm
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11 hours ago, LPLC said:
With this big 3th week number for frozen 2, and with holidays and Christmas coming next week, can Frozen 2 surpass 7 million admissions and $55M in France ?
As pointed out several times 7M+ should be more like the floor and with the increased ATP ($7,9 now vs. $7,2 after OW) $55M+ would happen too.
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So again:
WE
Frozen1
Frozen2
1st
572
654
1.430
1.635
2nd
577
1%
1.355
941
-34%
2.822
3rd
476
-18%
1.952
708
-25%
3.704
4th
433
-9%
2.499
5th
540
25%
3.242
6th
402
-26%
3.838
7th
158
-61%
4.091
8th
107
-32%
4.217
9th
81
-24%
4.311
10th
89
10%
4.412
4.767M
6.000M
A more detailed one in Spoiler (I hope it works):
SpoilerFrozen1
Frozen2
WE
Weekend
Mid-week
Week
Weekend
Mid-week
Week
1st
572
654
124
696
1.430
1.635
246
1676
2nd
577
1%
1.355
121
698
0%
941
-34%
2.822
174
1115
-33%
3rd
476
-18%
1.952
114
590
-15%
708
-25%
3.704
4th
433
-9%
2.499
203
636
8%
5th
540
25%
3.242
194
734
15%
6th
402
-26%
3.838
95
497
-32%
7th
158
-61%
4.091
19
177
-64%
8th
107
-32%
4.217
13
120
-32%
9th
81
-24%
4.311
12
93
-23%
10th
89
10%
4.412
00000
4.767M
00000
00000
6.000M
00000
WE
Minions
Frozen2
1st
935
935
1.430
1.635
2nd
1.040
11%
2.394
941
-34%
2.822
3rd
760
-27%
3.598
708
-25%
3.704
4th
537
-29%
4.419
5th
366
-32%
5.147
6th
195
-47%
5.521
7th
242
24%
5.893
8th
111
-54%
6.160
9th
81
-27%
6.323
10th
125
54%
6.497
6.946M
6.000M
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F2 vs F2:
WE
Frozen 1
Frozen 2
1st
776
---
954
1.980
---
1.980
2nd
656
-15%
1.697
1.347
-32%
3.485
3rd
619
-6%
2.434
866
-36%
4.439
4th
752
21%
3.471
5th
646
-14%
4.384
6th
151
-77%
4.565
7th
124
-18%
4.698
8th
95
-23%
4.802
5,152M
7,000M
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Monday numbers:
#1 Frozen2 695k (-26%) 3,69M - biggest 3rd WE of the year
#2 Geheimnis 200k (-18%) 3,985M - biggest 6th WE of the year
#3 Last Christmas 85k (+8%) 565k
#4 Hustlers 60k (-15%/-19%) 160k
#5 Joker 40k (-25%) 3,965M
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12 minutes ago, PKMLover said:
Bad sign for F2?
The drop is neither awful nor is it great. It's ok. I would have hoped for a better drop by now but the biggest 3rd WE of the year really wouldn't be bad. It's still on course for 6M+ I'd say.
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Thursday Numbers:
#1 Frozen 2 43k (-39%) €365k / $300k
#2 Geheimnis 20k (-33%) €175k / $193k
#3 Last Christmas 10,2k (-6%) €85k / $94k
#4 Hustlers 7,6k (-32%) €65k / $72k
#5 Joker 4,5k (-33%) €41k / $45k
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1st Trend:
#1 Frozen 2 600k (-36%) 3,56M - it got past 3M yesterday, if it reaches 586k+ this WE it'll have the biggest 3rd WE of the year.
#2 Geheimnis 160k (-35%) 3,945M
#3 Last Christmas 75k (-5%) 550k
#4 Hustlers 55k (-23%/-26%)
#5 Joker 35k (-34%) 3,96M
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1 hour ago, LPLC said:
Hi everyone, can frozen 2 compete with serial bad wedding 2 or Avengers endgame in France or 6M admissions is the most that it could reach ?
I'm not very good in predicting as I'm always lowballing to not overestimate. So if I say 6M you shouldn't consider that as being the high end
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4 hours ago, LPLC said:
Thanks to holidays how much admissions and euros frozen 2 can reach in germany ?
I would still expect 6M admissions / €50M / $55M. Next WE we should have a clearer picture.
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Like I did in the France Thread, here's a comparison of F1 and F2:
WE
Frozen1
Frozen2
1st
572
654
1.430
1.635
2nd
577
1%
1.355
941
-34%
2.822
3rd
476
-18%
1.952
4th
433
-9%
2.499
5th
540
25%
3.242
6th
402
-26%
3.838
7th
158
-61%
4.091
8th
107
-32%
4.217
9th
81
-24%
4.311
10th
89
10%
4.412
4.767M
6.000M
Since I hope F2 might get around Minions number it's interesting to compare those runs too:
WE
Minions
Frozen2
1st
935
935
1.430
1.635
2nd
1.040
11%
2.394
941
-34%
2.822
3rd
760
-27%
3.598
4th
537
-29%
4.419
5th
366
-32%
5.147
6th
195
-47%
5.521
7th
242
24%
5.893
8th
111
-54%
6.160
9th
81
-27%
6.323
10th
125
54%
6.497
6.946M
6.000M
Minions run was just crazy. It was first from 1st to 5th WE and then again on the 7th and 10th. It's the 5th biggest CGI-animated movie in admissions and the biggest in gross (€57,93M). Frozen getting there too would be awesome!
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2
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F1 vs F2:
WE
Frozen 1
Frozen 2
1st
776
---
954
1.980
---
1.980
2nd
656
-15%
1.697
1.347
-32%
3.485
3rd
619
-6%
2.434
4th
752
21%
3.471
5th
646
-14%
4.384
6th
151
-77%
4.565
7th
124
-18%
4.698
8th
95
-23%
4.802
5,152M
6,000M
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3
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1
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Monday numbers:
F2 is up, the rest is pretty much the same.
Frozen 2 930k (-35%/-43%) 2,81M
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1
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BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)
in International Box Office
Posted
Indeed. As I said, it's just one cinema. Still it seems remarkable that it doesn't really gain presales shortly before the release...