Aristis
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Posts posted by Aristis
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1 hour ago, Chucky said:
BvS made over 850m despite coming off a disliked MOS and despite having abysmal reviews and WOM. Imagine how easily it would have cleared 1b if it was actually decent and had no MoS stigma. Jokers presence in the SS trailer made the film open as high as it did so no I'm sorry but a character being 'well known' is an understatement for the Joker, he is the darth Vader of comic book movies and saying this iconic character currently in the biggest genre right now isnt enough to sell a movie is total nonsense, every movie you've mentioned including Joker has just proven my point.
TDK is considered the greatest comic book movie of all time, made 1b when it was hard to make 1b, didnt have China to help nor did it have 3d and it came out over 10 years ago. Guess what? There wasn't much action in that either compared to most CBM's today.
The problem with many people here is you assume the general audience will dismiss a brand just because it doesnt have explosions in its marketing, you were wrong, and now you are still trying to justify how you wasnt wrong and this movie was just an anomaly. Just accept you lot made a bad call
If you think audiences aren't awaiting effects, explosions and stuff look again into the 1B+ grossers. Of course it's not just about that and a movie can gross less than that even than. But please tell me how many of the 1B+ movies have this few action scenes - I mean, it's just Jokers 3rd part really. The movie is a charakter study, a Joker biopic and therefore very different even from the Nolan Batman Trilogy.
1 hour ago, Chucky said:Endgame made 100m more than the previous opening weekend record holder. If anyone here says they saw that coming they are liars. Nothing Joker did was as impressive as that feat alone. And again, stop assuming audiences need visual effects to turn up to comic book movies, they don't, they prefer good characters which is something this film did right. If visual effects was so important then BVS/justice league or even MOS would have been just fine.
People bring up how apparently most only predicted 500-600m but my friends dont even follows the box office but we all knew Joker would be a billion dollar grosser if it was actually decent. The biggest shocker for me is how The Hangover director didn't fuck it up.
To the last part of the first post and this one: Sometimes it's better to not know much about BO to make a better prediction as you don't know the natural borders (and there are many for Joker). It's like the prediction of Endgame - in Germany it blew past most predictions of German BO followers just because we know it and know what is normal. I could have said "Endgame makes $3B WW". That doesn't really mean I'm a great analyst and all others are bad. Some predictions are just lucky cause sometimes BO is unpredictable and that is what makes following it great.
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1 hour ago, Chucky said:
But it is the Joker who is the most iconic comic book villain of all time so it's not unexpected is it
BvS showed the clash of the (arguably) two biggest Superheros of all time, yet it did just $870M (you can look at SSquad too). This argument of saying "the charakter is well known though" is therefore total nonsense...
Additionally there are all those points made by many before and maybe many after: R-rated, arthousy/charakter study, not much action...
I won't say it's the most impressive run of the year (which it may be), the decade (which it could be too) or of all time (which it clearly isn't) though.
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Monday numbers:
There weren't much changes over the WE frame
Geheimnis 580k (-15%) 2,74M - biggest 3rd WE of the year, topping TLK 565k
Joker 142,5k (-29%) 3,7M
Last Christmas 130k (160k i.P.)
Le Mans 66 / FvF 95k (110k i.P.)
Recep Ivedik 6 92,5k (-37%) 272,5k
Zombieland 2 90k (-22%/-40%) 272,5k
Maleficent 2 60k (-28%) 980k
Addams Family 60k (-14%) 440k
The Top10 are down 28% compared to one year ago (FB2 opens to 995k). I hope F2 this week changes that...
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1st Trend:
Geheimnis 575k (-16%) 2,74M - biggest 3rd WE of the year topping TLK 565k
Last Christmas 150k
Joker 140k (-30%) 3,69M
Le Mans 66 105k
Zombieland 2 95k (-18%/-37%) 275k
Recep Ivedik 6 75k (-49%) 255k
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10 hours ago, Aristis said:
The Thursday estimates from InsideKino see another great drop for the local Geheimnis (66k, -21% from LW estimates) and again a rather mediocre hold for Joker (16k, -38% from LW estimates).
Combined with a bit better numbers from the other report Geheimnis should get to 60k+ (-20% from LW Thursday actual) and maybe 550k WE (applying same IM as LW). Joker would indeed reach around 16k and 125k WE.
As for Geheimnis that would be great, it just needs 565k+ for the best 3rd WE of the year. But I hope Joker might do more than that...
Thursday actuals:
Geheimnis 62k // €550k / $605k (-19%)
Joker 17k // €150k / $165k (-35%)
Last Christmas 13,5k // €110k / $120k
Le Mans 66 11k // €105k / $115k
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The Thursday estimates from InsideKino see another great drop for the local Geheimnis (66k, -21% from LW estimates) and again a rather mediocre hold for Joker (16k, -38% from LW estimates).
Combined with a bit better numbers from the other report Geheimnis should get to 60k+ (-20% from LW Thursday actual) and maybe 550k WE (applying same IM as LW). Joker would indeed reach around 16k and 125k WE.
As for Geheimnis that would be great, it just needs 565k+ for the best 3rd WE of the year. But I hope Joker might do more than that...
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2nd Trend:
Geheimnis 725k (-22%/-30%)
Joker 225k (-43%)
Zombieland2 150k
Maleficent2 90k (-49%)
Addams Family 70k (-52%)
Terminator 55k (-53%)
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1 hour ago, RJ 95 said:
Isn't that 250k prediction for this WE also seems a bit too high, if that 25k for Thursday is true ? maybe multiplier is higher ?
That's what I wrote in the first post - I fear the predicted IM may be too optimistic. We will see tomorow.
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1 hour ago, Bart Allen said:
@Taruseth do you think it's possible for Joker to reach 5 million admissions? ~
As said, 5M won't happen. But if it really reaches 250k this WE my hope for €40M+ might still be alive (it would need 4,3M+ for that to happen). But for now I would stay with the InsideKino prediction of 4M.
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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:
Joker: 250k (total 3.55M) (-37%)
At the moment I can't really see this happening as it would be a huge IM for a movie like Joker. But MarkG is great in predicting so maybe it really is possible...
And if that hold happens for Geheimnis we might get some more than just 4M admissions there.
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2 hours ago, Bart Allen said:
Joker needs another 3 million Euro to topple Bohemian Rhapsody's October record in Germany - which it should beat this week I believe; but I'm trying to see whether there's another film who had a higher gross than BR in Germany for October and the current 16-rating film record ~
With Octobre record you mean the biggest movie opening in October? Cause there are quite some bigger ones.
And the 16 record might be Matrix 4,78M
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Maleficent does great indeed! She's coming for the 5th biggest of the Disney LA (all numbers in Mio):
OD
OW
OWeek
Total
Multipler
TLK
0,630
2,559
3,253
9,750
x3,81
2019
Alice
0,252
1,418
1,600
4,537
x3,20
2010
TJB
0,278
1,090
1,303
3,720
x3,41
2016
BATB
0,269
1,143
1,282
3,568
x3,12
2017
Maleficent2
0,066
0,549
0,786
3,000+*
x5,47
2019
Aladdin
0,078
0,471
0,563
2,510
x5,33
2019
Dumbo
0,085
0,470
0,551
2,392
x5,09
2019
Maleficent
0,086
0,548
0,628
2,047
x3,74
2014
Cinderella
0,086
0,573
0,636
1,722
x3,01
2015
OZ
0,124
0,633
0,788
1,590
x2,51
2013
MP
0,044
0,293
0,390
1,535
x5,24
2018
Nutcracker
0,049
0,229
0,255
0,802
x3,50
2018
*it can certainly go higher but as holiday seems to end I don't really know where it's headed - it'll definitely get the biggest multi though
4th biggest to 8th biggest:
WE
#4 BATB
#5 Maleficent2
#6 Aladdin
#7 Dumbo
#8 Maleficent
1st
1,143M
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1,143M
549k
---
549k
471k
---
471k
470k
---
470k
548k
---
548k
2nd
584k
-49%
1,866M
555k
1%
1,341M
513k
+9%
1,076M
403k
-14%
954k
240k
-56%
868k
3rd
311k
-47%
2,296M
522k
-6%
2,075M
331k
-35%
1,464M
320k
-21%
1,399M
153k
-36%
1,112M
4th
281k
-10%
2,712M
187k
-44%
1,813M
184k
-42%
1,719M
106k
-31%
1,256M
5th
212k
-25%
3,050M
104k
-44%
1,945M
208k
+13%
2,004M
181k
70%
1,470M
6th
127k
-40%
3,221M
117k
+12%
2,089M
116k
-44%
2,157M
122k
-32%
1,685M
7th
69k
-45%
3,347M
77k
-34%
2,231M
73k
-37%
2,241M
88k
-28%
1,823M
3,568M
3,000M
2,510M
2,392M
2,047M
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Monday update:
Geheimnis 920k (4-day) 1,04M (i.P.) the movie is very close to TLK for the 2nd biggest OW of the year.
Top5 OW 2019:
Admissions / theatres / average
1 1.671.661 717 2.331 A:EG 2 921.781 746 1.236 TLK 3 920.000* 700* 1.314* Das perfekte Geheimnis 4 841.002 690 1.219 Joker 5 640.081 633 1.011 Captain Marvel Joker 395k (-12%) 3,2M in the end Joker didn't reach TLK 4th WE (406k)... But it is already the 3rd biggest DC movie ever:
year / admissions
1 79 4,2M Superman 2 12 3,3M The Dark Knight Rises 3 19 3,2M Joker 4 08 2,9M The Dark Knight 5 19 2,0M Aquaman Maleficent2 175k (-5%) 795k it's a little above its predecessor after 3 WE (784k)
Addams Family 145k (+63%/+37%) 290k
Terminator 115k (-14%) 305k
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4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
Frankly that Germany number wasn't really pleasing me considering the strength of the other European market.
I understand what you mean. It's pretty much like TLK: Relative to other Disney remakes it did great but relative to many countries with huge breakouts it was rather disappointing.
And now Joker: Seeing how close Italy and Spain are - I just get the feeling that if the german BO was in a better state it could do more...
Still, both movies have great numbers in Germany
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As mentioned some increases with the 2nd Trend:
Geheimnis 900k 4-day (1,02M i.P.)
Joker 415k (-8%) would be the best 4th WE of the year!
Maleficent 180k (-2%)
Addams Family 150k (+69%/+42%)
Terminator 120k (-10%)
New York 75k (-18%)
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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:
Is the weather in favour of this honour???
Weather is quite bad and seems to be over the WE (if it's not raining than at least it's pretty cold) so that shouldn't be the factor if it doesn't get there. So hopefully the Halloween effect won't be too big so Joker can have an acceptable IM for the WE.
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3 minutes ago, Aristis said:
Joker 400k (-11%) 3,21M
If Joker can get to 406.117 admissions over the WE it'll have the biggest 4th WE of the year, hope it gets there!
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1st Trend:
Das perfekte Geheimnis 880k (4-day)/1M (5-day) Third biggest OW of the year
Joker 400k (-11%) 3,21M (3rd biggest DC movie)
Maleficent2 150k (-19%) 770k (close to Maleficent1 after 3rd WE: 784k)
Addams Family 120k (+35%/+13%) 265k
Terminator 100k (-25%) 300k
Halloween Haunt 90k
SSTTIDD 75k
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Thursday numbers: (Halloween and a holiday in some parts of Germany)
Das perfekte Geheimnis 165k // €1,5M/$1,68M Sadly nothing about the previews...
Joker 75k (+12%) €700k/$785k
Maleficent 27k (+15%) €265k/$295k
Terminator 20k (-20%) €202k/$225k
Addams Family 20k (+100%) €176k/195k
Halloweem Haunt 16k // €143k/$160k
SSTTIDD 13k €117k/$130k
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5 hours ago, RJ 95 said:
In Insidekino it said that 3.175m visitor with 383k weekend, so it means that they estimate 147k for Mon-Wed right ?
Only 32% drop from last week..
Yes, it's not an actual yet but Joker should have something like that. So it should reach 3M admissions Saturday at last.
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21 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
Next weekend: Of course there'll be some horror but the biggest opener should be domestic comedy Das perfekte Geheimnis; probably far from FJG numbers but #1 seems easily possible.
I hope for something like Joker + Das perfekte Geheimnis > 1M. Maybe Joker can stay close to 400k, the InsideKino prediction is around 380k (-15%).
I would be great if the Geheimnis could have a big opening closer to 1M - we could really need this after last WE being down compared to last year to still have a chance for 120M+ admissions for 2019...
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1 hour ago, peludo said:
Yes. It still had a 5th and 6th weekend over 1 million, finishing 6th weekend with €18.7m. And after that another 6 weekends in a row over €500k thanks to Holiday period. And then some late legs thanks to awards season. It was a monster. It ranks #15 all time.
31 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:Bohemian rhapsody has some of the most impressive late legs for sure,it just keep going up and down for months and award season propel that further.
Just like BR in Germany, the film was initially thought will be stop at around 2.75m admission after 2 months in theater but somehow can leg it out to 3.6m+
I really don't know why I can't remember that it was that big in Spain. But maybe the movie had just too many out of this world runs (Italy, Netherlands, Czech republic...) to be remembered
It's nice that Joker is at least a little brother. And this time it gets to the Billion.
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1 hour ago, peludo said:
Bohemian Rhapsody: €1.65m - €14.4m - €27.6m
Is this for real? I can't really remember the spanish run but that is extremely impressive. It nearly doubled after that rather low WE 😮
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So just around 50% drop again. What are the chances Joker gets to 2B here?
JOKER OS THREAD // 738.5M OS // 1.074B WW
in International Box Office
Posted
Well, the Joker biopic did
And this one sentence says it all: You think Joker is a normal CBM and therefore just another to get there. Others think it isn't. And that is the point why this whole discussion became useless the moment all arguments were written down (as all people are telling the same now over and over again).
And about the fanboy discussion: Surely there might be some fanboys in this discussion but there were enough arguments to prove that not everyboy is biased to the point of bigotry. Of course preferences might be part of the decission of impressiveness but in the end (as it was said) it's just opinions and those opinions (as I said) became useless. So we might just end the discussion if there aren't any new things to say and not repeat the same over and over again, and just go back to numbers...