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Everything posted by Aristis

  1. 25.12.2019 - 29.12.2019 1 1.471.948 -22% 3.892.658 2 Star Wars 9 2 582.736 +23% 6.439.767 6 Frozen 2 3 455.664 +38% 2.253.313 4 Jumanji 2 4
  2. 2nd Trend: #1 SW9 625k (-43%) 4,38M #2 F2 350k (-28%) 6,035M *it needs only 10k more the have the 10th biggest 7th WE ever... #3 J2 320k (-21%) 1,83M #4 Knives Out 220k #5 Kaninchen 145k (-21%/-37% i.P.) #6 Geheimnis 140k (-8%) #7 Spies 120k (+2%/-18% i.P.) SW9 crossed 4M admissions yesterday as the 6th movie of the year.
  3. Thursday numbers: #1 SW9 145k (-27%) €1,6M /$1,78M #2 F2 80k (-0%) €630k / $700k #3 J2 70k (-12%) €650k / $725kk #4 Knives Out 40k // €355k / $395k #5 Geheimnis 30k (probably around -0%) €255k / $285k #6 Kaninchen ~30k (~-12%) The Thursday drops are awesome - much better than the projected WE numbers. I hope InsideKino is pessimistic.
  4. That 7,5M is just the floor. F2 will probably end a bit higher than that (>7,5M, <8M). But it'll have only one good drop (to get to around 7,05M) and than drop 70%+ like F1. It remains to be seen what it'll be able to do after that. Though, as I said some time ago, I'm always cautious so yeah, it'll likely end above that.
  5. SW vs SW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838
  6. SW vs SW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.705 --- 2.705 2.189 --- 2.189 1.887 --- 1.887 2nd 1.966 -27% 5.767 943 -5
  7. Monday numbers: #1 SW9 1,08M (-22%/-37%) 3,37M - biggest 2nd WE of the year #2 Frozen 2 480k (+22%) 5,5M - fifth biggest 6th WE ever, biggest 6th WE of the year #4 Jumanji 2 400k (+32%) 1,35M - J1 299k / 1,27M #5 Kaninchen 180k (4-day), 215k (5-day) #6 Geheimnis 155k (+18%) 4,57M - biggest 9th WE of the year #7 Spies in Disguise 116k (4-day),135k (5-day) #8 Cats 81k (4-day), 105k (5-day)
  8. SW Disney Trilogy: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838
  9. I don't really know what I did there, but it seems that indeed that he got confused by his own currency mistake
  10. According to estimates the total after Sun was $40,5M and 5,626M admissions. Might go up but for now it is.
  11. That'll probably depend on the legs after holiday - it had to have legs close to its predecessor over the christmas holidays though. Running like that one (F1's 3rd WE would be the counterpart to F2's 5th) it would add close to 2,1M for 7,7M admissions. F2 is likely not to hold as good as that though. I would still expect 7M to 7,25M admissions ($50M to $52M).
  12. SW9 with a disappointing OW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.705 --- 2.705 2.189 --- 2.189 1.887 --- 1.887 2nd 1.966 -27% 5.767 943
  13. This WE was already a little inflated by holidays so F2 won't increase by that much next WE. 425k (+8% from current estimate) would already be great I'd say. If it stayed flat that'd be the 9th highest 6th WE ever and therefore it's in awesome territory for the WE no matter if it increases or not. Atm I don't think 7M will happen, 6,25M to 6,5M look good though. As for SW9, 1M could be possible. Since SW movies are notoriously it could drop a bit higher though... Should do at least 900k (-35%) I'd say.
  14. It has made that up to Thursday: Wed 1,184M / 1,184M total Thu 645k (-45%) 1,829M total If that's not what you meant I'm confused now
  15. Yeah, SW9 seems extremely optimistic (especially the upper range). I trust in his knowledge though that it's at least possible. As for F2, I would expect it to increase with the 2nd Trend, too. Still, I think 350k would be enough to secure 6M+. It'd be just 400k behind Minions at the same point that got to 6,95M and has christmas holiday beginning now.
  16. Yes, you posted the cumulative for Thursday That test is a great tool, especially for the filmmakers themselves to think about there movies from another perspective. But out of context it's confusing sometimes as it has errors when there's just a man and a woman or two men starring in a movie (like the lighthouse that obviously can't have two females talking about anything than a man).
  17. 1st Trend: #1 TROS 1,38M (4-day), 1,7M (5day) - MarkG thinks it could go higher than that (he says it could be as high as 2,2M 5-day) but until tomorow this lower estimate seems like the safer choice... #2 Frozen2 350k (-25%) 4,77M - so it might pass its predecessor this WE #3 Jumanji 250k (-35%/-38%) 735k #4 Geheimnis 110k (-24%) 4,34M #5 Last Christmas 70k (-5%) 780k
  18. Yes it opened on Wed so Thu is deflated. That's actually better than I thought for Thursday. RO IM would result in 1,1M 4-day (and with a probable 300k+ OD in 1,4M+ 5-day). As this one opened one day earlier it should be better than that... But those other numbers are awesome! It seems only Hamburg was in holiday yesterday and today yet so the numbers shouldn't be inflated, at least too much.
  19. Yeah, it's an important drop but I think you've written it like 5 times today alone so maybe Fullbuster isn't too far off To me it seems you are expecting a really big drop as the WOM is bad. But the 2nd WE will probably be inflated by holidays and therefore the drop won't be as telling as that (if SW9 drops big regardless it'll tell much though).
  20. You're really obsessed with 2nd WE hold I don't think it will be too bad actually - christmas eve on Tuesday seems like good position for BO.
  21. Indeed. As I said, it's just one cinema. Still it seems remarkable that it doesn't really gain presales shortly before the release...
  22. I'm not yet sold on the idea of SW9 not reaching 5M, I mean if so AEG remaining at the top wouldn't be that far away 😬 But this looks extremely weak for a SW movie. I've counted some numbers for the first time and in only one cinema (so this could be just an anecdote) but it actually lost presales from yesterday to today... This movie will probably have to fight to become even 2nd of the year. Awful. But we don't have actuals yet for Germany so maybe we should wait...
  23. What I meant: good critics don't translate to good WOM and maybe it's the same the other way round. Audiences could like the amount of fan service the movie seems to offer (I won't see SW9 before Monday so I can't really say much on that untill then) or the damage that SW8 did is irreversible. At this point SW is dead in many parts of the world and SW9 relies heavily on a few countries that (after the predecessor) might want opinions of fans rather than critics. We'll see...
  24. Well, you don't know WOM yet. You know critics opinions. They were great for SW8 though and you know what happened...
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