Aristis

I do not understand that. Since when there is FF7 OD in play? I thought it would be underwhelming and not more than 200M OD possible Ok, I think I got it: People are waiting for cheaper prices but because they don't come they buy now. So it was unpredictable.

The worst case is something like $850M OS after sunday (without China), right? Could be at $860M. And $810M Dom but could also be at $820M. So $1660M to $1680M WW after sunday. If China makes at least $30M (would be very low but you never know) it could be $880M OS, $1690M. Or will it cross $900M OS and $1700M WW? I think the WW number will be cracked. Should really underperform to miss that mark and OS is also really possible.

Well, maybe I went with the hype. It'll be the most popular SW film in Germany despite less admissions as a whole, so maybe you're right but you can hope for more When I think about it, only a short time before SW started I also thought it could be that big. A few months ago I also thought it would make less than the Hobbit International and in Germany. But then the hype really started.

So maybe a 1,3M admissions third week? 8,5M admissions are safe, 9M possible and yeah even Intouchables would be possible (9,144M) but it would need a few good holds at last But $100M Dollar are save, it's already the biggest film of the decade moneywise and it will at least become the fourth biggest of all time with more than €95M and a good possibility, that it will get to €100M. A great success in Germany but of course many (me too) expected more.

That would have been $873M for Catching Fire

Great to see how it grew. MP1 suffered because of the exchange rates an MJ2 does even more. With old ER it would have been at $55M It crossed €40M (source: insidekino) so it should be at 43,6 now to become the highest grossing movie of the series. Great that we stayed with Katniss

Would be great Maybe I'm a bit to pessimistic

And Germany has overtaken the UK for the biggest OS market

Would it be possible to do an comparison in local currency? Don't know how well that works with Titanic since it's an old movie and currencies might have changed dramatically and incomparable, but for Avatar it should work. Don't think any of those big markets in the comparison has a shot on Avatar except for UK and China.

Are 9M admissions for SW in trouble? Would need a better multipler than ROTK from now Isn't sure anymore I think. But it could end between 8,5M and 9,5M admissions. So €98M to €109M in the end? $100M will surely happen for the third time.

That's more than any movie made on it's opening weekend in Germany (admissions) and I thoght that would the bigger market

In which countries are holidays next week? I know there are in Germany an Japan, I think. I don't even know it from US.

So more like $190mio - $200mio OS+US?

Only OS would have been great... But impossible though. So $80M OS? Wouldn't be that great. But it had a huge week so it's ok

$170M OS+US? (Would be very dissapointing) Or OS only? (Would be phenomenal)

So 875k admissions on the weekend (-25%) for SW and 6,6mio to sunday. Still enough for $80mio on sunday which I was hoping for. The other releases with good drops or even increases! Spectre and Mockingjay increase while Peanuts doesent drop much from the 4-day weekend. Maybe the huge week has satisfied some demand for SW. It should be the sixth or seventh top grossing movie after the weekend (€75M) and fourth or fifth after the next week (€80M).

Most of them in the China thread said, that this is unrealistic. It's more realistic it does that in the whole run there, but who knows

The truth lies in the middle (But, who knows, maybe we will all be surprised as it comes way higher to 11mio)

Isn't it more impressive than DH2? Yeah, developing markets but it was most succesfull in developed markets (like this is) and the exchange rates were so massive! Germany would have grossed $90mio by now and not $70mio. So, without China SW is more impressive.

Yeah, $110mio to $125mio (which would be the very high end) are in the range. But I don't think less than €100mio (~$110mio) will happen.

If it makes what ROTK made from this point or slightly more it would come to 9.5mio to 9.7mio admissions. ROTKs legs would be possible. It made 1.17mio admissions on the third weekend (isn't impossible for SW) an 0,48mio admissions in the following midweek. I don't know how the holiday were back in 2003/04 but SW could match that number if you look how many admissions it has this week. 10mio are not out of question but we should wait which numbers the weekend brings before we are disappointed.

"Not sure if the 10 million admission mark is still in play" You're right, I thought the same later. LOTR 3 had 6,6mio admissions after the second week (SW 5,7mio) and made it to 10,4mio. If you use the same multipler for SW it gets 9mio. Maybe that should be the target and - like you said - it would be enough for €100mio, third highest grossing movie of all time.

€13,5mio midweek, slightly below my expectation. €15,3mio to get to €80mio. Seems to high for the weekend. But €75mio and $80mio by sunday are safe, right? How high can it go in that list? Next week there are still holidays in several parts of the country. The biggest territories for moviegoing are in holidays (Nordrhein-Westfahlen, Bayern...). So a good next week I think. It should go over €100mio, so third place should happen I think. And above it could go to €110mio. (Mark G believes that 10mio admissions could happen and if the ticket price stays above 11€... ) Are there really only two $100mio movies in Germany? Bom says Titanic ($130mio) and Avatar ($162mio). A third movie in that row is needed

Germany should become the biggest OS territory for MJ2, right? It'll overtake GB?

Germany will be over 80mio$ after sunday, thats obvious. Maybe even 85mio$. I think that shows how big this week is (bigger than the second weekend)