Gavin Feng

A very gentle session

I wonder when you will review it

Look back the title of the first one Yes, where can we find them now?

Legendary try really hard here, but the story/style/theme is not very friendly to local audience. For me, the realistic commercial expectation is: Bottom Line: ¥100M Most recent Star Wars movies did something around that number. Blade Runner 2049 and Arrival made reasonable ¥77M & ¥108M respectively. With a much more stunning cast(at least in our views) and stronger buzz on social media, there's no way Dune would do worse. I even think 3-day opening could be around it. Moderate even Good: ~¥200M Since I don't think general audience here would enjoy Dune or give high praise(though the movie should make 8.0/10 on Douban film site), Gemini Man, which made ¥235M in 2019, is a really great example for its commercial prospect. It was also a sci-fi movie that made most of their money due to big name filmmaker Ang Lee and tech tricks but gained very very gentle WOM. Studios behind both of them have spent lots of money in marketing. The Last Jedi made ¥267M here with average opening and bad legs. If Dune could keep its buzz till Oct.22, it's possible to hit that goal. High: ~300M It's where two bad sequels Alien: Covenant(¥199M / ¥311M) and Terminator: Dark Fate(¥197M / ¥355M) ended. Dune might not open that high, but it still have some chances to reach them in lifetime if the holds are not too ugly like them. (Cosidering strong competitions from NTTD on second weekend and Venom 2 on unclear weekend, it's a tough war) Amazing: TENET - ¥456M At least in commercial, Nolan is a much bigger name than Villeneuve. Although TENET's WOM was mixed, the legs was still kind of good. People can take anything from Nolan as god shit even if no one understand the trailers. So far, Villeneuve does not earn that kind of trust from general audience. The only way Dune would do that much is it somehow get the love from local audience and have great holds. I can only say the possibility exists but never expect it.

$20M is Definitely safe.

so western media finally admit HK is part of China?

@charlie Jatinderany idea how much come from 3D screenings?

3D release of Dune have gotten general boycott on local social media since the release plan was announced. Many users & fans say they would choose HD piracies instead of big-screen experience if studio and theaters don't arrange enough 2D screenings.

Is this movie shot by 3D camera? I notice no 2D release in China.

$220M lifetime for SC?

Marvel: Fine. Let's remove three spidy together.

I believe Legendary tried, but any date near National Day movies is hard to land. And to be honest, I don't think HBO Max debut is going to hurt the business here very much. If this is a Marvel/Nolan movie, streaming release will be a deadly hit. But Anyone who want to see a Villeneuve/Timothée blockbuster at the very beginning is probably determined to go cinema.

Oct.22 - Dune Oct.29 - No Time to Die Nov date for Venom 2 I guess.

It already get approval. A release date is expected to be given soon.

It should do much better than BR2049 in China. The cast is very attractive for local hollywood targeted audience. Even if it come later than HBO Max debut, I think it still would top 2049.

Big-screen experience does not look that attractive. For me, the most satisfied experiences this year are: Raging Fire - A entertaining blockbuster which offer general audience all they want. Hubble 3D(BIFF) - It really make me feel being in space by stunning 3D effects. City Lights(BIFF) - Cinema could and should be that pure. (And Hollywood and local industry keep offering me shits like Detective Chinatown 3, Godzilla v Kong, Black Widow, F9) I guess Mulholland Road would be my next.

Early ticket sale of National Day movies look very gentle. Both ChangJin and My Country, My Parents have long runtime(176 mins & 156 mins).

I thought HP have 7 sequels.

Spielberg:

last year marvel held the program with local streaming giant bilibili. We thought it was a prelude, now it looks more like a funeral.

it shows the whole world expect nothing but a easy, relaxing, entertaining blockbuster.