Jake Gittes
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Posts posted by Jake Gittes
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Iceroll, Chewy, Gopher and Brand New Rises all picked Ted. No one picked Magic Mike.
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Well, there goes my Top 11 now.
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1) What film will finish first this weekend? Brave
2) Will Tyler Perry make more than 25.445 mill? No
3) Will Magic Mike have an opening day of more than 8 million? Yes
4) Will Ted have a Saturday increase of more than 6%? Yes
5) Will People Like Us make more than 10 mill this weekend? No
6) Of the four openers, which has the best theater average? Magic Mike
7) Will Brave drop less than 45%? Yes
8) Will Mad3 drop less than 40%? Yes
9) Will Abe Lincoln have a Saturday increase of more than 20%? Yes
10) Will The Avengers make more than 4.5 mill? Yes
11) Will Ted fall less than 17% on Sunday? No
12) Will MIB make more than either ROA or TMB? No
10/12 3000
11/12 5000
12/12 7000
Bonus 1: What will the cume of the four openers be? 4000 $89,623,320
Bonus 2: What will the cume of the four openers Saturday be? 4000 $35m
Bonus 3:
What finishes in spots:
2 Magic Mike
3 Ted
6 People Like Us
12 That's My Boy
15 Seeking a Friend
2000 each.
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SOTM 7: I) Less than 5 million
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Pretty amazing to keep being in Top 10 week after week when we're almost halfway through. If memory serves me well, I was consistently somewhere in the 20s last summer, ultimately leaving it to my Top 12 to pull me up to 13th place. This year it seems to be the other way around.
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I got 12/15 this week. Got no Bonus 3 spots right with estimates, but could get one or two right with actuals. Could've been worse I guess
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That would be tragic if it happened. But it probably won't.
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At this point I sure am glad I predicted $157.8m for it. But like you said, there's a month to go... a lot of things can happen.
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Oh yeah.
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I would agree with you about Amour if it wasn't a foreign film. If such emotional and wide-pleasing films as A Separation and The Lives of Others hadn't received more than one or two nominations, what makes you think Amour will? It's not even a crowd-pleaser like Amelie or The Artist. It's supposed to be dark, somber and uncompromising. I could easily see the Academy awarding it Best Foreign Film, but in what other categories can it really be a contender? Especially as this year looks incredibly strong for American films already.
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Anxious to receive your 20,000 points Iceroll?
(I understand - I am, too) -
Nah.Brave
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I'd say Bourne has a decent chance to finish with around $120 million.
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Not sure about Amour, it seems like a film that's relying much more on direction and performances to achieve greatness, not necessarily plot and dialogue. Moonrise, The Master and Django are almost certainly in contention though. Other possibilities - Looper, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Sessions, Seven Psychopaths...
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So, The Bourne Legacy got pushed back a week to August 10.It will likely still make a run for the Top 12 if it debuts to over $50m (Rush Hour 3 opened to $49m on August 10 and made $123m by September 3, and it didn't have very good WOM), but many who put it in their Top 12 will lose or get less points now because its gross won't be as high as it would've been with an August 3 release.
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1) Will Seeking a Friend have a Saturday increase of more than 7.5%? Yes
2) Will Seeking a Friend have an opening weekend of more than 6.95 mill? Yes
3) Will any film playing in more than 1000 theaters have a weekend drop of less than 30%? Yes
4) Will Brave open to more than 64.5 mill? Yes
5) Will Brave decrease on Saturday? No
6) Will ROA make at least a million more than That's My Boy? Yes
7) Will Seeking a Friend make more than both ROA and TMB? No
8) Will Abe Lincoln Vampire Hunter open to more than 10 mill? Yes
9) Will Abe Lincoln Vampire Hunter open to more than 14.5 mill? Yes
10) Will Brave's Sunday be bigger than be Lincoln Vampire Hunter and Seeking a Friend's 3 day total combined? No
11) Will The Avengers have a Friday increase of more than 55%? Yes
12) Will Prometheus drop less than 43%? No
13) Will Moonrise make at least 300K more than Marigold? Yes
14) Will film finishes higher? Battleship, Expecting or Dictator? Battleship
15) Will Madagascar fall less than 46.7%? No
11/15 3000
12/15 5000
13/15 6000
14/15 7000
15/15 10,000
Bonus 1: What will the combined gross be of Brave, Abe Lincoln and Madagascar3? 4000 $97,568,201
Bonus 2: What will Prometheus WW total be after Sunday estimates? 4000 $265m
Bonus 2.5: What will Madagascar's Thursday gross be? 4000 $4,418,239
Bonus 3:
What finishes is slots:
7 Snow White and the Huntsman
9 That's My Boy
13 Safety Not Guaranteed
15 Battleship
2000 for each one right
5000 bonus if all 4 correct
Bonus 4:
***Internationally*** what finishes in slots:
3 Brave
4 Prometheus
6 MIB 3
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You have to consider that NATM lost all its IMAX screens to TF2, also the main blockbuster of the summer anyway, and suffered quite a big drop as a result. MIB 3, on the other hand, has two more strong weekends to come until serious competition hits.
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MIB3 has stronger WOM and legs than First Class and it doesn't have a movie like TF3 opening against it less than two weekends from now.
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I think this weekend will almost certainly have resulted in over $175m for MIB 3 and over $150m for SWATH by mid-July. For me Prometheus is the wildcard here. Will it keep freefalling like GL (remember their second weekend Friday drop was identical, although Prom had a much better second Sat increase and a strong hold on Father's Day, thus a better 2nd weekend) or stabilize somewhat, like Wanted, Matrix Reloaded, I Robot, SWATH and many other films that dropped around 60% in their second weekend?
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SOTM 5MIB 3 - $178,825,329Snow White and the Huntsman - $157,766,675Prometheus - $126,426,788
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CJohn and Michael Scott both predicted exactly $1,420b in Bonus 1... and they are both the closest.
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Well I didn't completely crash and burn this week. Got 10/12, that'll hold unless The Intouchables increases with actuals or Chernobyl gets fudged with ROA's money, could happen, but I doubt it. Was insanely happy when I saw Battleship decreasing less than 50% - it had a severe theater loss but I counted on it receiving a bit of help on Father's Day just like MIB3 and Avengers.I almost totally blew the bonuses though - TA Sunday estimate is close to my prediction ($1,419.8b vs $1,421b) and maybe M3 will make exactly $55m foreign this weekend, but as far as spots go, I missed 5 (like most people, probably; SW and TMB could swap positions with actuals, but it seems unlikely), 9 and 11 (unless BS and Dictator change places). I put Dark Shadows in #14, and it could end up right there, but it's small consolation
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Having just ROA in your Top 11 is still much better than also having Battleship or Dark Shadows... or even all three.
(I understand - I am, too)
Weekend Estimates: #1-TED 54.1m; #2-MM 39.16m; #3-BRAVE 34m; #4-MADEA 26.35m; #5- MAD3 11.82m
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I honestly think fishnets should just be given her own personal forum, so she can rant about all things Peter Jackson there.