Jake Gittes
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Posts posted by Jake Gittes
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This.A BIG NO, B.
And this.Your logic is flawed - as was already pointed out the only reason you do not have it was because you didn't believe it would make XXX $$ NOT because it wasn't being released.giving extra points to those that didn't have faith to being would be akin to making the rest of us fall prey to double jeopardy..... NOBODY would have had it in a top 12 if Paramount had pulled the plug in March or April so those that would stand to receive extra due to a scheduling conflict that wasn't part of their logical thought process is unjustified at best and a plain disadvantage to the rest at worst. I understand that this is an unprecedented event in the history of this game but giving points because some feel they are cheated on a fluke isn't fair to the rest of us who would have gained at their expense had the film been released. 7000 points in and of itself isn't a big deal but its the precedent that would be set for the future that has me worried.
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Think Like a Man is almost guaranteed to finish #10, but spots 4-6 are total wildcards. BS, Dictator, Chernobyl, Marigold, Dark Shadows and What to Expect all have a chance to end up there.
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And while I love Fincher, I'm not sure I consider Panic Room and TGWTDT good enough to say he has a perfect track record. Still, of 9 movies he's made I think 4 are outstanding (Se7en, FC, Zodiac, TSN), and the others range between good and average, with none being explicitly bad. So I guess that counts for something. Same with Cameron, I like almost all his movies and think his worst (Avatar) is still sorta-kinda above average, but I don't know if that's enough. He hasn't made any flat-out masterpieces either, as far as I'm concerned (only T2 and Aliens come close), so he's just consistently good.
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Tarantino, PTA, Nolan, maybe Malick for me. I'd say Leone too, but haven't seen Duck You Sucker yet. What I really can't think of is a filmmaker who has had more than 10 movies in his perfect track record. Not to diminish the success of Tarantino, PTA and Nolan, but it's not out of realm of possibility to make 5-7 good or great films in a row, it has been done before them, too. But sooner or later, everyone has a misstep. Scorsese, Coppola, Spielberg, Polanski, the Coens - guys who made some of the best films ever - all had at least one or two, and thus don't have the perfect track record. Maybe Kubrick managed to - I know his last 7 movies (from Dr. Strangelove onward) are fantastic, and so is Paths of Glory, but not having seen Lolita, The Killing and KIller's Kiss I can't be sure. Same with foreign auteurs like Fellini, Bergman, Antonioni and Kurosava, and I haven't seen all of Tarkovsky either, although he only made 7 films - even if each and every one is great, it's not as accomplished as a perfect track record of over 10 movies.
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I've definitely watched The Lion King over 100 times, but I was 5-6 years old back then. If I were only to count the past 10 years, then I watched both Pulp Fiction and LOTR: The Return of the King around 30-35 times. (first saw them both in 2004).
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Just heard that it made over 100m rubles (around $3.2m) on Thursday - the first time any movie did it on a non-holiday Thursday. (previously OST and Eclipse made 132m and 122m ($4,7m and $3,9m) respectively - but they both opened on a non-holiday Wednesday). Apparently MIB3 is almost certain to make $20m or more on OW. It's playing in over 1500 theaters (the record - 1716 - still belongs to OST).
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Scores (alphabetically)Blade Runner (Vangelis)Chinatown (Jerry Goldsmith)Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Tan Dun)The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Alexandre Desplat)Days of Heaven (Ennio Morricone)Dead Man (Neil Young)Gladiator (Hans Zimmer)The Godfather: Part II (Nino Rota & Carmine Coppola)The Indiana Jones Trilogy (John Williams)Jaws (John Williams)Lawrence of Arabia (Maurice Jarre)The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (Howard Shore)Once Upon a Time in America (Ennio Morricone)Once Upon a Time in the West (Ennio Morricone)Schindler's List (John Williams)The Shawshank Redemption (Thomas Newman)The Social Network (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)Star Wars Saga (John Williams)SoundtracksBoogie NightsCasinoThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonFear & Loathing in Las VegasForrest GumpGoodfellasInglourious BasterdsHeatJackie BrownKill BillLost HighwayThe MatrixThe Matrix ReloadedMoulin RougePulp FictionRaging BullReservoir DogsSaturday Night FeverSe7enThe ShiningShutter IslandSpider-Man 2Stand by MeWatchmenZodiac
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My top 10 In alphabetical order:Apocalypse Now (Francis Ford Coppola, 1979)Chinatown (Roman Polanski, 1974)A Clockwork Orange (Stanley Kubrick, 1971)Days of Heaven (Terrence Malick, 1978)Five Easy Pieces (Bob Rafelson, 1970)The Godfather: Part II (Francis Ford Coppola, 1974)Jaws (Steven Spielberg, 1975)Professione: reporter (Mickelangelo Antonioni, 1975)Star Wars (George Lucas, 1977)Taxi Driver (Martin Scorsese, 1976)
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Schindler's List.
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1. The Turin Horse (dir. Bela Tarr, Hungary)
2. Drive (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn, USA)
3. Chapiteau-show (dir. Sergei Loban, Russia)
4. Young Adult (dir. Jason Reitman, USA)
5. The Sunset Limited (dir. Tommy Lee Jones, USA, TV film)
other favorites in no particular order: We Need to Talk About Kevin, Rango, Midnight in Paris, Attack the Block, Hanna, Submarine
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1) Will Men Black make more than 5 mill from midnights? No
2) Will MIB have an opening day of more than 25 mill? No
3) Will MIB make at least 35 mill more than The Avengers does? No
4) Will MIB double the gross of Avengers? No
5) Will any film increase on Sunday? No
6) Will any film increase by more than 55% on Saturday? No
7) Will MIB have an opening 3 day weekend of more than 150 mill WW? Only Sunday estimates will count. 3000 Yes
8) Will MIB's worst grossing day of the 4 day weekend be higher than Chernobyl Diaries 4 day total? 3000 No
9) Will Chernobyl Diaries gross more than Battleship and Dictator combined? No
10) Will Dark Shadows drop less than 20% (so this means, will DS's 4 day drop be less than 20% compared to it's previous weekends 3 day number)? No
11) Will Best Exotic Marigold Hotel have an increase (same scenario as number 10...4 day to 3 day)? Yes
12) Will What to Expect When You're Expecting have a Saturday increase of more than 45%? No
13) Will The Avengers best day be within 10 mill of MIB's worst day? 3000 Yes
10/13 2000
11/13 3000
12/13 5000
13/13 8000
Bonus 1: What will MIB3 gross for the 4 day? $68.448m
Bonus 2: What will the combined 4 day gross of Dark Shadows, Battleship and THG be? $25,985,996
Bonus 3: What will be the best combined increase for Fri and Saturday, % wise. So if you think Battleship will have a 220% increase Friday and a 75% increase Saturday, you would put 295% as your answer. If this is the highest total increase % wise, added up, then you get the points. 361.628%
Three best answers gets points:
4000
3000
2000
What films finish in slots:
4 Chernobyl Diaries
5 Dictator
6 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
10 Think Like a Man
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except... they don't? just my opinion obviously, but I thought the consensus was that they both look fine. was there a big, shared backlash when the pics of Venom were released, or was it just a small group of disappointed fans? i wasn't following these things in 2006/2007 so I don't know.I'd say with the kind of opening it had, SM3 would have at least outdone SM1 domestically and almost certainly become the first comic book movie billionaire. We would have gotten at least one another film from the same team, most likely in May 2010, when it might very well have been badly converted to 3D, but would have broken TDK's OW record regardless and, depending on WOM, finished with around $450m, give or take a couple of dozen million. In the best case scenario, it might have made a run at $500m DOM and ROTK's WW total. After that, Raimi, Maguire and Dunst either would have decided to move on or give it one last go, which we would have seen in 2012 or 2013, all while Andrew Garfield could do nothing but only continue dreaming of playing Spider-Man.Nolan can do no wrong. Then why does Bane look like crap? Why does Catwoman?
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Yeah this week was pretty good for me.
Thank you Avengers for having the closest drop to my prediction. -
ROTK, TDK, TS3, Titanic = greatAvatar, Avengers = goodDMC, TF3 = weakAlice, DH2, OST = fucking atrocious
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I only took a risk with Rock of Ages. Playing it kind of safer than last year, when I was one of literally three people to put Bridesmaids in their Top 12. Though last year I never lost as many points as I'm going to lose on TA (l overpredicted Cars 2 by $140m and KFP2 by $125m, but I'll have underpredicted TA by at least $220m), and who knows how much movies like Snow White, Prometheus and Rock of Ages are really going to make. Not counting BM, I was much more confident with my predicted numbers last year.
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How is it doing that? Increasing 70% on Saturday?I still say this is hitting $60m this weekend
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I also predicted $55.4m and think it's a perfectly fine number... wouldn't have been shocked if it had gone for $60m+ (after the last two weeks, nothing box-office related will be able shock me for some time), but never thought it was likely. What really matters at this point is that it will almost certainly pass $600m, and this weekend's number won't do anything to prevent it, I believe.People keep saying i'm lowballing this even though its daily numbers are right about what i predicted, i even said 55mil for this weekend and people said i was lowballing it.
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If it follows the third weekend IM of Iron Man (which is closest to TA in WOM and numbers), it'll make $56.3m (45.4% drop)If it follows IM2: $53.5mWolverine: $53.9mThor: $54.4mSpider-Man 3: $55.7m
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Official Friday domestic estimate: $15.308 million for THE AVENGERS from 4,249 locations. Location avg. = $3,603.
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I'm going to lose more points on The Avengers than most people, but man, am I happy that I left both DS and BS off my Top 12.
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1) Will Battleship open to more than 47 mill? NO
2) Will What to Expect open to more than 20 mill? YES
3) Will The Dictator open to more than 30 mill for the 5 day? NO
4) Will The Dictator's two day (wed-Thurs) gross be more than 10 mill? NO
5) Will the combined gross of The Dictator (5 day) and What To Expect (3 day) be more than the Avengers (3 day)? NO
6) Will any film have a Saturday increase of more than 60%? YES
7) Will any film have a Sunday drop of less than 24%? NO
8) Will The Avengers drop more than 45%? YES
9) Will The Avengers weekend gross be more than the combined gross of films in places 3-10? NO
10) Will The Avengers total gross be more than 450 mill? YES
11) Will What to Expect and Battleship both have increases on Saturday? YES
12) Will THG make at least 500k more than The Lucky One? YES
13) Will Safe House have an increase this weekend? NO
14) Will The Raven make more than Safe? NO
15) Will Think Like a Man fall less than 30%? NO
12/15 3000
13/15 5000
14/15 6000
15/15 10,000
Bonus 1: To three decimal points, what will The Avengers % drop be this weekend? 3000
46.231%
Bonus 2: What will the top five cume be for the weekend (only 3 day counts)
$152.226 million
Bonus 3:
What finishes in spots:
3 What to Expect
4 The Dictator
9 The Lucky One
11 Five Year Engagement
13 Chimpanzee
15 The Three Stooges
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After seeing the trailer, I'll be disappointed if The Possession doesn't have at least a $10m OD. Unless AVLH breaks out that is.
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TF2 was a Wednesday release. Take away $91m it made in its first two days, its total gross is $311m. Which would result in a 2.85 multiplier. And that movie was released in late June, not mid-May.
Thank you Avengers for having the closest drop to my prediction.
4 day Actuals pg 62+; MIB3 69.25m TA 47.22m
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Jake Gittes