Jake Gittes
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Posts posted by Jake Gittes
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The box-office in the Soviet Union was far and away above that of today, and it still is. There were tens of thousands of theaters around the country, and tens of millions of admissions was the norm for big films. Avatar's got nothing on that.
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I have Avengers at 381. Not too happy about it.Though I now have more confidence than ever that TDKR can reach $545m I predicted for it.I also think I might have lowballed TASM with $244m, but I'd be shocked if it went over $300m, so if I'm to lose points there, I won't lose many. Same with Brave, for which I think $260m is a very safe prediction. I still think #5 is kind of a wildcard, but I felt confident in picking Snow White just because nothing else looked good enough to me - neither the animated sequels which everyone must be tired of by now, nor Prometheus with its possible R-rating, nor MIB3 which I think will follow in the footsteps of movies like Rush Hour 3 and Terminator Salvation. I think Snow White, with its strong cast, fantasy aesthetic and very good WOM potential will be more appealing than all of those. And I don't think that being released on the post-MD weekend is a factor.
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1) Will The Avengers make more than 22.5 mill for midnights? Yes
2) Will The Avengers make more than 27 mill for midnights? No
3) Will The Avengers make more than 30 mill for midnights? No
4) Will The Avengers set the midnights record? No
5) Will The Avengers set any daily or opening record this weekend (midnight, OD, Saturday, Sunday or opening weekend)? No
6) Will The Avengers have a Friday of more than 68.5 mill? No
7) Will The Avengers drop more than 15% on Saturday? Yes
8) Will The Avengers have a Sunday drop of more than 30%? Yes
9) Will The Avengers have a Sunday gross of more than 45 mill? No
10) Will The Avengers make more than 160 mill this weekend? No
11) Will The Avengers have a WW weekend (as reported by THR on Sunday, only estimates will count) of more than 225 mill? 4000 Yes
12) Will The Avengers WW total be more than 400 mill as reported by THR, only estimates will count? Yes
13) Will The Avengers open to more than 15 mill in RUSSIA (as reported by THR and only estimates will count)? Yes
14) Will The Avengers Friday total gross be at least 2.7 times bigger than it's midnight gross? Yes
15) Will The Hunger Games have a drop of less than 40%? No
16) Will Five Year Engagement finish number 2 for the weekend? No
17) Will The Raven have a Friday increase of more than 125%? No
18) Will any film increase by more than 60% on Saturday? Yes
19) Will Nikki's FIRST Friday number (not her midnight report, but actual Friday report ) have The Avengers making more than 5 mill more than the real estimate reported by Boxofficemojo.com FOR THE FRIDAY NUMBER? 3000 No
20) Will American Reunion have a Saturday increase of more than 40%? Yes
15/20 2000
16/20 3000
17/20 4000
18/20 5000
19/20 8000
20/20 12000
Bonus #1: Tell me what the top 5 cume will be: $171,568,803
Closest: 5000
2nd closest: 3000
3rd closest: 2000
Bonus #2: What will the combined weekend gross be of The Raven, Safe and THG? $13,407,961
5000..only one winner
Bonus 3: What will TitaniC 3DS WW gross be according to THR when it comes out on Sunday? $330m
5000...only one winner.
What will finish in spots:
3) Pirates Band of Misfits
7) Safe
8) The Raven
12) 21 Jump Street
15) Wrath of the Titans
2000 each correct spots, 5000 bonus if you get all five correct.
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According to BOM, Dark Shadows gets 3700 theaters next weekend. Already starting to wonder if I should have put it in my Top 12.
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For me this feels more epic than TDK ever did.
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I've made this little statistic for myself, then decided I might as well share it - it's the Top 12s for each summer of the past decade (grosses as of Labor Day). It's fun to track things like this, and for some people it might serve as something to fall back on, as it does for me. Here it is:
2011
[*]Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II - $375,552,093
[*]Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $350,500,012
[*]The Hangover: Part II - $254,416,436
[*]Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $240,794,584
[*]Fast Five - $209,837,675
[*]Cars 2 - $189,256,895
[*]Thor - $181,030,624
[*]Captain America: The First Avenger - $172,272,760
[*]Bridesmaids - $168,517,430
[*]Kung Fu Panda 2 - $164,827,049
[*]Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $162,550,178
[*]X-Men: First Class - $146,300,000
First year with no $400m movies since 2007
The highest gross for the #12 movie
Notably present: Bridesmaids, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Notably missing: Super 8, Green Lantern, Cowboys & Aliens
2010
[*]Toy Story 3 - $408,890,408
[*]Iron Man 2 - $312,433,331
[*]The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $298,798,466
[*]Inception - $278,457,609
[*]Despicable Me - $241,498,630
[*]Shrek Forever After - $238,371,987
[*]The Karate Kid - $176,308,872
[*]Grown Ups - $160,191,860
[*]The Last Airbender - $131,157,151
[*]Salt - $115,561,662
[*]The Other Guys - $108,130,839
[*]Robin Hood - $105,269,730
Lowest grosses for #12 since 2006
Notably present: Despicable Me, The Other Guys
Notably missing: Prince of Persia, The A-Team, Knight & Day
2009
[*]Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $400,641,549
[*]Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $297,614,366
[*]Up - $290,866,563
[*]The Hangover - $272,197,388
[*]Star Trek - $257,171,491
[*]Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $194,224,066
[*]X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $179,875,159
[*]Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian - $176,794,393
[*]The Proposal - $161,137,964
[*]G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra - $141,021,754
[*]Angels & Demons - $133,375,846
[*]Terminator Salvation - $125,320,003
No films in between $300m and $400m, $200m and $250m
Notably present: The Hangover, The Proposal
Notably missing: none, except maybe Public Enemies
2008
[*]The Dark Knight - $504,798,337
[*]Iron Man - $317,847,676
[*]Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $315,844,754
[*]Hancock - $227,381,199
[*]Wall-E - $218,447,803
[*]Kung Fu Panda - $213,762,199
[*]Sex and the City - $152,525,242
[*]The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $141,614,023
[*]The Incredible Hulk - $134,518,390
[*]Wanted - $134,015,405
[*]Mamma Mia! - $132,512,495
[*]Get Smart - $128,464,785
Notably present: Wanted, Mamma Mia
Notably missing: Speed Racer, Zohan, The Mummy 3
2007
[*]Spider-Man 3 - $336,530,303
[*]Shrek the Third - $322,719,944
[*]Transformers - $310,578,372
[*]Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - $308,681,208
[*]Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - $286,825,495
[*]The Bourne Ultimatum - $202,810,455
[*]Ratatouille - $201,249,448
[*]The Simpsons Movie - $178,526,451
[*]Knocked Up - $148,170,675
[*]Live Free or Die Hard - $133,614,216
[*]Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer - $131,597,271
[*]Rush Hour 3 - $122,695,339
Most $300m movies and $200m movies (4 and 7 respectively)
Notably present: Knocked Up
Notably missing: Ocean's 13, Evan Almighty, I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
2006
[*]Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest - $414,013,957
[*]Cars - $241,979,000
[*]X-Men: The Last Stand - $234,306,945
[*]The Da Vinci Code - $217,536,138
[*]Superman Returns - $196,817,144
[*]Over the Hedge - $155,019,340
[*]Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby - $138,301,172
[*]Click - $136,511,362
[*]Mission: Impossible III - $134,029,801
[*]The Devil Wears Prada - $122,035,766
[*]The Break-Up - $118,683,135
[*]Nacho Libre - $80,197,993
Biggest gap between #1 and #2 ($172,034,957)
Arguably the most uninspiring year
Notably present: The Devil Wears Prada, The Break-Up, Nacho Libre
Notably missing: Poseidon, Miami Vice
2005
[*]Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith - $379,807,894
[*]War of the Worlds - $232,606,871
[*]Batman Begins - $203,641,815
[*]Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - $201,335,082
[*]Wedding Crashers - $195,801,693
[*]Madagascar - $191,591,306
[*]Mr. & Mrs. Smith - $184,636,051
[*]The Longest Yard - $157,798,925
[*]Fantastic Four - $152,733,384
[*]Monster-in-Law - $82,931,301
[*]The Dukes of Hazzard - $77,521,769
[*]The 40-Year-Old Virgin - $71,886,455
Lowest grosses for #12
only 9 $100m movies
Notably present: Wedding Crashers, M-I-L, The Dukes of Hazzard, The 40-Year-Old Virgin
Notably missing: Kingdom of Heaven, The Island, Stealth
2004
[*]Shrek 2 - $438,477,864
[*]Spider-Man 2 - $369,888,512
[*]Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $248,344,516
[*]The Day After Tomorrow - $186,369,548
[*]The Bourne Supremacy - $164,769,215
[*]I, Robot - $141,886,658
[*]Troy - $133,298,577
[*]Van Helsing - $120,177,084
[*]Fahrenheit 9/11 - $118,002,561
[*]Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story - $113,726,099
[*]The Village - $112,179,413
[*]Collateral - $88,897,193
Notably present: Fahrenheit 9/11
Notably missing: none, really
2003
[*]Finding Nemo - $332,722,962
[*]The Matrix Reloaded - $279,771,818
[*]Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - $275,018,547
[*]Bruce Almighty - $240,964,435
[*]X2: X-Men United - $214,907,213
[*]Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - $149,093,559
[*]Bad Boys II - $135,072,491
[*]Hulk - $131,765,335
[*]2 Fast 2 Furious - $126,781,485
[*]Spy Kids 3D: Game Over - $107,420,532
[*]Seabiscuit - $104,645,915
[*]Daddy Day Care - $103,102,329
Lowest grosses for #1
Notably present: Pirates of the Caribbean, Spy Kids 3D, Seabiscuit, DDC
Notably missing: S.W.A.T., Charlie's Angels 2, American Wedding
2002
[*]Spider-Man - $403,706,375
[*]Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones - $300,669,374
[*]Austin Powers in Goldmember - $203,471,220
[*]Signs - $195,582,456
[*]Men in Black II - $190,418,803
[*]Scooby-Doo - $152,016,340
[*]Lilo & Stitch - $142,137,507
[*]Minority Report - $130,612,530
[*]Mr. Deeds - $124,650,338
[*]XXX - $123,876,240
[*]The Sum of All Fears - $118,471,320
[*]The Bourne Identity - $118,131,305
Notably present or missing: none
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Since The Marriage Councelor got pushed back and replaced by Madea's Witness Protection (on an earlier date), does it also get replaced by it in the question? Or by some other movie? Or does nothing change?Tell me, of these five films, which one will be the lowest grossing of the summer. Only these five films can you choose from.
1) Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2
2) Savages
3) Tyler Perry's The Marriage Counselor
4) People Like Us
5) Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
Sorry if it's been asked already.
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Well, TF3 had 3D, was released in the middle of the summer and was a sequel in a popular franchise, since Battleship doesn't have any of that I think it'll be lucky to cross $30m. I could be wrong, though
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Just out of curiosity, what actually makes you confidently expect $40 million?
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Superhero movies have always been looked down upon, though not as much in the past couple of years. It's interesting because science-fiction and fantasy movies regularly make a lot of money despite being no less, and often even more silly than, say, Iron Man or X-Men, but I guess it's just psychological - nobody in the general audience feels ashamed to watch Pirates of the Caribbean or John Carter, but as soon as it's a guy in a silly suit, the audience immediately gets reduced in size.As far as animated films, well, families love going to the movies, and quite often these movies also have a sizable audience in young males and females (aged 15-25). The not-totally-innocent humor and the 3D effects appeal to all ages, that's also why Shrek and Ice Age prosper, while Pixar movies, with their carefully delivered stories and messages and subtler-than-usual humor, often struggle. To an average young guy in his early 20's, Shrek's cool. Toy Story 3? Who needs that childish dreck, I mean, do you seriously expect me to go watch a movie about freaking toys? Or an old guy with a flying house? I may be exaggerating somewhat, but that's often the attitude.In general, for all their success, movies are still widely perceived as entertainment that's not required to be challenging in any way, that's why people happily watch 2012 or Pirates 4 or Prince of Persia without giving a crap about how strong the story is. It's the reason I was personally happy to witness the success of Inception - it was a visually spectacular blockbuster with a strong story that actually managed to appeal, and to connect. I went to see it in its fourth week and the auditorium was full; all three times I went to see it, there were audible gasps right before the credits. It's a shame there are so few such films, and that the audiences aren't demanding for them, settling for whatever new 3D roller-coaster ride of a movie that there is.And Shrek is such a phenomenon because it was pretty much the first major animated movie to arrive when Russian movie theaters began slowly climbing out of the black hole that was the 1990's. A lot of people saw it then, and its audience quickly grew thanks to word-of-mouth. It was there already when each sequel arrived.
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Well, where was LOTR not very well-received?
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Oh, and for Prometheus, I'm thinking $25-30 million is the high end. Actually low 20s, a la Inception, might be more realistic, even with 3D. It's worth noting that two big space adventire/action films released here since 2004 - ROTS and Star Trek - did very poorly even despite the brand names. ROTS couldn't manage $10 million, and ST made, like, half of that. So there's that.
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ROTK was released after the holidays, in late January 2004, and made just over $14 million which was a record at the time. It was shortly eclipsed by Night Watch which made $15.5 million in summer 2004.TTT opened with $2.6 million and likely closed with a little less than $10 million.As far as Batman (in reply to Fullbuster's comment) - well, TF3 made $45 million after TF2 made $17 million, so when I predict that TDKR will make $30 million after TDK couldn't make $9 million, and will make it without 3D, it's actually pretty damn optimistic
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Considering everybody's love for LOTR and the positioning of The Hobbit right before the holidays, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it followed Avatar's suit and made over $100 million. I think it can definitely make around $25 million on OW, and end up with at least $80 million. It's going to be absolutely huge, and rest assured, if the first film is received well enough, There And Back Again will be gunning for Avatar's record come December 2013.Ice Age 4 has a good chance to follow PIB and SFA and make over $50 million, though if TASM performs like POTC4, then IA4 could pull a Kung Fu Panda 2 and burn out at $40 million or so, especially since this isn't the franchise's first foray into 3D.Speaking of TASM, it certainly can make $50 million off of $20-25 million opening week. SM3 might have grossed $14 million in 2007, but that made it the highest-grossing comic book movie here for several years to come. With the addition of 3D, TASM will be big, really big.TDKR opens two weeks after IA4 and has no real competition ahead of it, but considering how badly both BB and TDK underperformed (the latter only made $8.6 million, though it was pushed back a month and was easily the most pirated movie during that time), I think WB should be happy if TDKR manages $30+ million. Working in its favor, aside from lack of competition, is the much better awareness (TDK might not have made much in theaters, but a lot of people watched it afterwards), and the fact that Inception managed $22 million two years ago. But with the lack of 3D and relative weakness of the brand name compared to the likes of Spider-Man, TDKR can only go so high.I would also be surprised if Battleship made more than $35 million. True, it looks visually spectacular, but it also doesn't have 3D or any real hook besides that. Transformers 3, being a 3D threequel in a popular franchise and released in the middle of the summer, didn't go above $45 million. BS won't approach that either.The Avengers will also almost certainly make $30 million, and might make it to $40-45 million, but like with TF3, I highly doubt it'll go higher. It's in 3D, yes, but also a superhero film and, unlike TASM, a part of the franchise that was never very popular here - Thor was the highest grossing with only $16.5 million. Like in the US, it's reasonable to assume The Avengers will double that, but won't go much higher.Otherwise, I see $20-25 million at most for MIB3, $40-55 million for Madagascar 3, $20 million for ALVH (mostly because of Bekmambetov's name and 3D), $15-25 million for Brave and GI Joe 2, $20-25 million for SWATH, and $10-15 million for Bourne Legacy and Total Recall.
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Treasure Planet. It was March 2003 and I was 9 already. I never rewatched the movie, but remember it more vividly than almost any other movie I last watched several years ago. My second was Terminator 3, then Return of the King... by now I must have seen 300-350 films in he cinema, I stopped counting them in October 2010 when I was at 234.
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giteshpandya 20:52:43#HungerGames falls 60% to $61.1M in 2nd wknd, $251M in 10 days. Fastest non-sequel ever to break quarter-bil
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#MirrorMirror opens 3rd w/ $19M, $5273 avg
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Top 12 Domestic
1. The Dark Knight Rises - $545.2 million
2. The Avengers - $381.1 million
3. Brave - $259.1 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man - $244.3 million
5. Snow White and the Huntsman - $195.2 million
6. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $191.8 million
7. Prometheus - $174.5 million
8. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $170.5 million
9. The Bourne Legacy - $159.6 million
No more Joe
10. Men in Black III - $145.1 million
11. Rock of Ages - $137.9 million
Top 5 WW
1. The Dark Knight Rises - $1,126 billion
2. The Avengers - $1,002.5 billion
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $853.3 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man - $800 million
5. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $680.1 million
Top 5 WW Weekends
1. The Amazing Spider-Man
2. The Dark Knight Rises
3. The Avengers
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift
5. Men in Black III
Top 7 Domestic Opening Weekends
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. The Avengers
3. Brave
4. The Amazing Spider-Man
5. Ice Age: Continental Drift
6. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
7. Snow White and the Huntsman
Preseason Bonus Questions
1. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World - $31.6 million
2. Dark Shadows - $109.1 million
3. Dark Shadows - $109.1 million
Triple Bonus Questions
1. Yes
2. No
3. No
4. Yes
5. Yes
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. No
9. No
10. 1) The Avengers, The Bourne Legacy, Step Up 4, Rock of Ages
11. Yes
12. No
13. No
14. Yes
15. Yes
16. The TDKR four-parter
1) Yes
2) Yes
3) No
4) Yes
17. The horror film four-parter
1) Yes
2) Yes
3) No
4) Yes
SOTM 1
Prometheus - 13 days
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When it comes to opening weekends, it's around 7.5:1 in Russia. The 2nd and 3rd biggest OWs are OST and SFA with just under $20 million, so I'd say $19-20 million equals US' $150 million milestone.As far as total gross, I'd say 9:1. $50 million has only been reached by 4 films so far, which comfortably puts that number next to USA's $450 million. Meanwhile there is like a dozen of huge recent blockbusters that ended up between $35m and $45m, which roughly translates to $320-420 million in the US box-office.That's a general rule, but there are undeniably exceptions, John Carter being the most recent and obvious one.
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Streetcar Named Desire. Saw it once, in March of this year. I was absolutely stunned and in the kind of awe you rarely experience when watching movies. And hands down, the best female performance I've ever witnessed and I don't expect that to ever change.Also Rear Window, Some Like It Hot, All About Eve, 12 Angry Men. I'm not a fan of either Ben Hur or Sunset Boulevard.
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Agreed about Hugo. Besides they owe it to him anyway, because in my opinion, Ferretti being snubbed for Shutter Island was an absolute crime. The Artist and War Horse also have a good chance.
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Rango all the way.
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Jean Dujardin - The ArtistGeorge Clooney - The DescendantsBrad Pitt - MoneyballGary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier SpyMichael Fassbender - ShameThe field was already strong, and now with those reviews for J. Edgar, Di Caprio is out of the race. I love the guy as much as everybody, but this now can't be and won't be his year. I'm trying to look at it from the bright side here - now he has the perfect opportunity to win his Oscar for Django Unchained. We all know how much better that would be, and it's just one more year of wait.This year, I think Dujardin wins the Oscar with strong competition from Clooney. Oldman and Pitt are there just because they deserve to be nominated, but that's it; meanwhile Fassbender gets most of the critics' love and support.
The Avengers OS Thread (Crosses 800M!)
in International Box Office
Posted