I don't have any guesses even until after Tuesday when some audiences will have seen it -- and if the nda's are really strict, I still might not know. From what I understand, those who have seen it think Jen and Michelle were something special, but if anyone can make a movie that is too far out there for the academy, even with career best performances by actresses of their caliber, Aronofsky might be the guy.
But I can't wait to see those performances myself!