Plain Old Tele

Edward Scissorhands.

Never Say Never Again.

Original Sin.

Serpico. (enough with the damn Star Treks! )

Starship Troopers.

(a) seems pretty early for any estimate( if true, this would set new records for front loaded-ness by a major opener, right?

If you had to compare it to an HP movie, wouldn't DH1 be a better choice? (Artificial book-splitting/cliffhanger, part 1 of a two-part finale, holiday release, no 3D, etc....)

Fincher doesn't care about the Academy and they don't care about him. That's not going to change for the near future, IMHO.

I'm guessing DRAGON will be too grim and bleak to get a BP nom. (Haven't read the book, haven't seen the original film, just going off reputation of the story and Fincher).

The Academy, as a single entity, may want to appeal to popular movies to get ratings... but individually, people don't take that into consideration. No one for a movie just because they want the telecast to be big. They vote for what spoke to them emotionally, they vote for their friends, and they vote for themselves. I don't think DH2 has enough love to snag the required 5 percent of #1 votes. In fact, I think no matter how stodgy/arty/whatever the nominations are this year, already the Oscars will gain more interest simply because of the Ratner/Eddie Murphy fallout and the return of Billy Crystal.

Agreed. Without people needing to come up with 10 nominees, there's no impetus for DH2... and right now in Hollywood the movies that are getting Academy love are THE ARTIST and THE DESCENDENT.

I'd put DH2 on the bubble instead of EXTREMELY LOUD...

Just wait until TH1 comes out and obliterates both.

Ray's correct in pointing out that (domestically) the Twilight franchise has done a better job of maximizing its fan base (in other words, per-fan average). HP is much more successful doing that worldwide, but I don't see why there should be any disagreement or outrage about what he said (and I say that as a non-fan of either franchise).

Good god, that picture will haunt my dreams.

No, not the 15th. His due date was the 28th, but he came late, the morning of the 31st (which you had predicted in one of the endless DH2 threads). If BOM still existed, I'd dig the post up.

I know, right???!

Obviously to many degrees its subjective, but AVATAR's win had just as much to do with its technical advancement as its artistic merit. Then again, since many films "deserve" a cinematography award, and since most people (myself included) can't provide any detailed analysis other than "it looked pretty", why quibble about a nomination? In the case of HBP, the nomination was the win. btw, have you noticed my sig, Noctis?

Noctis, you don't know what you're talking about.

For better or worse tech award nominations come from "the most liked/nominated films" instead of "all films released in a calendar year"... unless they're so stunning/groundbreaking/different that they can't be ignored. Sequels generally don't get as much love anyways, and if you combine that with the fact that the HP series (whether rightly or wrongly) is seen as nice, solid work (but nothing truly outstanding) and you have a recipe for why it hasn't gotten a lot of nominations. But don't let me stop you from raging.