Poseidon
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Posts posted by Poseidon
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6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
I'm happy for PIB: THE LAST WISH.
Most important:
Dreamworks is not quite dead yet. Maybe this gets them motivated to actually give a shit about their movies again,
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Disney went with a 25% drop on Sunday for A2. That probably won't happen. Expect it to rise by a million or so.
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On thing that bugs me in those hard times for movies:
It#s another CFriday 13th, another opportunity missed to have a cheap marketing hook for a horror movie. There are so many out there, why don't they constantly use those 1 or 2 opporunities eah year? It's especially cheep for Social Media activities. It's just sad.
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2 minutes ago, druv10 said:
Not sure why folks are getting upset, RTH used to have comic riddles for his number and that was awesome. Same with Charlie Jatinder. Part of the fun was guessing what the comic riddle meant. I can't say for others but I enjoyed it.
Simple solution: Put the riddle up first and the real numbers in spoilers. As an addition, a mod immediately highlights the important posts. Problem solved. The world could be so easy. Well, whatever.
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6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
The fun part is discussing the possibilities, we should be grateful we have like 5-6 people feeding us with numbers
4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:Then do what i did when the discussions are annoying me, i didn't enter the threads the whole day and only appear very late to have the actual number
Way easier and respectful than complain about people spending their times tracking it for the forum
It's not the discussions annoying me, it's that numbers are buried between them and you can't access them easily. The cryptic stuff makes it even worse.
It might not be respectful to complain, but in my opinion it's also not respectful to sit in a position of power having access to what everybody wants and play with said desire. Again, that's just what I feel about it. There will be others accessing this place for hours having fun with it.
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6 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:
No one is asking you to "worship" anyone and you aren't working for it either. You aren't owed numbers. We can have fun with this. It's not that serious.
No, we aren't owed anything. But maybe you can relate to it putting it this way: What I'm here for is numbers. I guess that's what this page is about. You could have them easy, but you don't get it. It's just a shitty feeling if you're not into those games.
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1 minute ago, Gkalaitza said:
Yeah hints and jokes are fun and all but the game of trying to read the tea leaves for an hour to get an idea of what the number thats being alluded to is can overstay its welcome if it goes on for a bit too long or for almost every day for a title. At least for non terribly active users that come to this forum to get a quick idea of where things are regarding a movie they are invested in or where are they heading towards
That's the point. If you're unlucky, you get 10 pages of fan-wars or random discussions between hint and number.
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2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:
We are getting number from 4 or 5 sources now. We get them early and there is some theatre involved but the forum is much better for all of it. I hope it continues.
Of course I hope it continues and of course I am very thankful we get access to those numbers due to those posters investing their time providing them. But it just sucks the way it's delivered. Hint dropped. Waiting for clarification. Why do we have to "work" for it? There's no need for those games that do nothing but steal time waiting.
But thaat's just my view on that neverending topic.
I said it before: This is a Box Office Forum, we discuss numbers. It's not about worshipping the providers. At least it shouldn't be.
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Is this some viral disease with people sharing numbers and starting to play the cryptic game?
It started so well with @XXR the Conqueror, but seems the good times are over here as well.
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Germany, for a long time, ignored the fact, that money can't buy popcorn. They were greedy, Prices were too high. They accepted the loss of audiences, especially children and families. And with a generation not growing up in cinemas, they won't come when they grow up either.
There's always a turning point in a model, where rising box office makes up for missing audiences. Mark G. over at Insidekino was preaching it for years.
Well, at least we got that Kinofest runing, finally. But for my taste, again, with prices too high and a wrong spot in the calendar.
You just have too keep in mind: This is a country, where you can buy 1 kg of meat for 4€, but can't take your 2 kids to the movies as parents and keep the price tag under 50€ including snacks.
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If this really pulls off a $45m weekend, $700m is becoming a topic worth being discussed I guess.
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5 minutes ago, M37 said:
Now I fully expect these two titles to diverge on Saturday, as Passengers looks to have been hit especially hard by NFL Playoffs (and possibly Hidden Figures), and Avatwo won't be. But worth noting that the only titles to get better than +50% on this Sat in 2017 were Sing (+75), Moana (+70) and Rogue One (+57). Again, I think the NFL playoff factor - or more accurately, lack of them - will push those Saturday jump higher overall (followed by bigger Sunday drops), but in the COVID* last year the non-animated films were in the +55-65 range, except for NWH at +79. (would also presume this is a big travel day for people returning to normal routine, which may cut into potential)
It's overall interesting, that with 2016, there was some significant change fro former pattern. 2012 or 2005 had huge friday jumps and muted weekdays. Maybe more schools are still off nowadays.
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With Megan and Otto posting great nubers: Maybe Avatar indeed was able to remind people, that it's worth going to the movies, not only for tentpoles. Maybe there are some other surprises out there for January.
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Just as a reminder:
It would be nice if you guys would at least name the source of most of the german numbers over here. that's including trends as well as official charts.
There's someone out there working hard to privide those numbers with insidekino.de.
At least give him the traffic he deserves instead of just copying the numbers.
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20 hours ago, Krissykins said:
Not as much as the first film of course.
But it was advertised heavily. The cinemas have been blue since November lol. He’s maybe being hyperbolic, as I doubt he’d be with classmates 1 week after release (second weekend was Christmas, third new year- so no classes of any kind those two weeks really).
I wouldn’t say it’s the most advertised film of the year though. Top Gun Maverick & Minions 2 were relentless for months on end.
I’d actually say Top Gun Maverick received more of an advertising spend after it was released, than 90% of films to prior to release.
I wouldn't ignore it away. I have the impression for a long time, that Hollywood fails to target younger people effectively every now and then. Social Media campaigns sometimes are just very weak and unfortunately, young people rely veryy much to be influenced by certain peopla nowadays.
So if there's no hype in that bubble, I wouldn't be suprised that some kids really don't know that it's out already.
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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:
9M looked like a lock if it had followed Rogue One for next 3 days but yeah MON isn't looking as big as it would have, so 9M is no longer lock
Yeah well, that's no surprise though, it was pretty much the same story during weekdays last week, but that might have been due to a limit in capacity for Avatar.
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13 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
9m+ seems like a lock. Time to start thinking of 10M perhaps.
No, I don't think it's a lock. Of course there's no competition at all, but we've seen many healthy runs over christmas with the Hobbit movies f.e., that dropped off quite a bit after holidays were over. The first Hobbit was at about 80% of its run when holidays were over.
Lets say Avatar makes another 1,4m-1,5m admissions by sunday, that puts us in the range of 6,2m. With a Hobbit run from there it'd end at around 7,75m admissions.
I think it will do better, but 9m is quite a stretch from there. The next weekend will hint at where the journey is going.
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Let's hope the spokesperson is not an expert in medical conditions and Jeremy Renner is in better condition than "critical" would actually imply.
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With a day like christmas eve, looking at a single chain might be kind of vulnerable.
You only need a sligthly different closing pattern than in other chains and the results could be all over the place.
I guess we just have to wait here.
Either way, even 17m would be the second biggest NYE of all time if i'm not mistaken.
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13 minutes ago, M37 said:
What’s the value when using Thursday as the primary comp? Might see a similar if not larger under-index due to CFP games
And if - after the last 3 days - we suddenly see a reversion to like +5-10% vs RO baseline, these boards are going to be fun
Even 17m would be up 16% on RO.
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6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:
With a very big FOR FUN caveat:
26m (+30%)
not a projection of any sort, just a comp from the same chain vs the same time yesterday, since you asked
Do you live in the area you track? Was there any weather effect, big happening or sports game or someting that could explain the underperformance?
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7 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:
So happy Puss in Boots essentially stayed flat from yesterday at only -2% drop. I am hoping for a really big percentage increase this weekend.
30% should be the best case scenario, 15% worst case.
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16 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:
Seems like snark but I’m chill about it. Can definitely see why it’s not worth bringing numbers early though.I think it's very well worth it, still.
I think your range should be upped to 21-24 for Friday with historic comps. Sherlock Holmes jumped 20,5% in 2011. King Kong even jumped 24% in 2005. So those numbers wouldn't be uncommon.
It remains to be seen if the early comparable run to R0 was just an artifact due to weather. The last couple of days seem to point to that conclusion.-
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Canada seems to be doing massive business, so Avatar is having another huge day on thursday and it's blowing past $19m.
What a nice little surprise.
This is really turning into a little magical late run.
MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Sing 2 is Illumination and they are on fire.
Actually, Illumination kind of is what Dreamworks comedies used to be.