YM!

The big difference between the two is the companies. 1. Illumination knows how to market family films unlike WB and Mario will skew much younger, so it can be more suitable as counterprogramming.

1. Avatar 2: 650M/2.8B 2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 600M/1.3B 3. Jurassic World: Dominion: 435M/1.4B 4. Thor: Love and Thunder: 420M/1.25B 5. The Batman: 400M/975M 6. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: 365M/1B 7. Lightyear: 285M/880M 8. Aquaman 2: 280M/1B (though I’m betting either this or Flash or both goes to 2023) 9. Mario: 265M/750M 10. The Flash: 250M/850M Top Gun 2: 235M/775M Mission: Impossible 7: 220M/835M Clade: 205M/575M Across the Spider-Verse: 190M/420M Black Adam: 185M/600M Sonic 2: 170M/435M Turning Red: 165M/430M Bullet Train: 160M/450M John Wick 4: 155M/375M Nope: 150M/240M Salem’s Lot: 140M/250M Lost City: 135M/280M Minions: The Rise of Gru: 125M/590M Creed III: 125M/265M Elvis: 120M/270M Scream 5: 110M/240M Puss in Boots 2: 105M/465M Halloween Ends: 100M/200M DC League of Super Pets: 100M/250M Transformers: 90M/350M Bad Guys: 85M/240M Morbius: 80M/200M Fantastic Beasts 3: 80M/400M Uncharted: 75M/255M Bros: 70M Bob's Burgers: 50M/100M

If it weren’t for the fact Pearl was my first Pokémon game, I’d get Diamond as the exclusives are much better. Did you hear about the recent datamines?

God I’m so excited for Friday. I can’t wait to play Pokémon Shining Pearl.

God I’m so ready for Friday. I can’t wait to relive my childhood. Sure, it relies on nostalgia but it is such a correction and will fix the franchise.

Previews: $22.7m True Friday: $47.5m Saturday: $42.75m Sunday: $37.6m OW: $150.55m I may do some brazy adjustments after the trailer if it’s a confirmation of A and B. However, I just want to say this as I’ll sort of repeat from the NWH chat. There’s still a pandemic going on. Families who help MCU movies in the past even with fully vaccinated children may be more hesitant as well as I do think MCU movies are getting more frontloaded than the other way around. I also want to say this, as someone who can see 200m+ OW, this movie has about the same chance for an OW just about 100m. The main thing is if theaters can match the demand as this is a 2.5 hour movie, and if you’re operating at 3:00 pm, it is much harder for a yuge opening. Make no mistake it’s going to reap screens OW but in a normal times it probably would’ve anyways. I do think that theaters will do their absolute best to get enough supply as this is the first major event since TROS and this holiday season does seem like something to celebrate for them. However, the labor industry this year has been understaffed for a while so it could be possible. I do think A and B are far larger draws than the follow up to Endgame and while I easily can see $200m, I also acknowledge that there’s a very real possibility in that supply might not be able to match up with demand. Yes an $100m OW would be kind of disappointing given the scale but it is also understandable. Also with holiday presales, that’s gonna be messy and I thank the tracking team of @keysersoze123 @Menor and the rest for shifting through it.

Besides odds are in that scenario they’d put it on the Internet after the OW, for thanksgiving.

Of course, this is probably the most hyped blockbuster since Endgame. I’m just saying a scenario of theaters not being able to meet the demands of audiences due to limited staffing.

You also got to factor in runtime as well, this is also a 2.5 hour movie. I do believe theaters will go into overdrive to meet the demand but it’s kind of hard to factor in a movie of that length with limited supply. Granted that didn’t stop Endgame lol.

I am sorry, but how is a $150m OW a disappointment. There’s still a pandemic going on and even though it won’t deter the main demographic, we still don’t know if families are 100% back. There’s also a huge issue in staffing theaters as we know most theaters aren’t opening until midday at the earliest and 3 pm at the latest. I think this will likely open above $175m as I think this will be like how NTTD was big in the UK as I do believe the theaters will do their best to meet the demand, but for the US. I wouldn’t be disappointed in a $150m OW or even a OW just over $100m.

Man, I guess Feige begins the manhunt for John Campea tonight.

Eh I’m actually not 100 percent on that.

I mean I find the talk of Eternals causing the death of Marvel stupid when No Way Home comes out in like a month lol. It may not make the pie in the skies grosses but I think it’s at least good enough for like 350m+ Dom.

You know what else is a worse blockbuster than Episode 2?

True, The Emperor’s New Groove is bussin’. One of the top 5 Disney Animation movies. Also we got robbed for not getting Me and My Shadow so I’m happy Dindal is getting more animation work.

Apparently Alcon owns the rights for the film as it was in development before the Nick deal.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/chris-pratt-garfield-animated-feature-1235039314/

They better keep this piece of lore. Lol.

The utter destruction of The Lego Cinematic Universe still pains my heart today.

Actually I do think in exchange for going more action oriented (while granted Incredibles 2 was big it was more so due to nostalgia), it’ll do smaller numbers than TS3/4. I also think legs may be a bit weaker as it’ll likely skew more male than female, as that demographic tends to rush out OW.

That’s around what I’m thinking too. For the most part, nostalgia sells when in conjunction with a long wait (people forgot about the past two Jurassic Park for World) and if the marketing is ramped up I can see why it wouldn’t at least do similar to Dune for the three day. Sure NWH is direct competition but the holidays tend to be spread out for multiple films. However, the only thing in question is legs as I suspect WOM to be mixed and I do think being available on Max same date will likely hurt the normal Christmas legs. I’m thinking $45m/$70m/$135m, a big five day with legs similar to GvK. In a case of no Max though, I could’ve easily see an scenario where NWH does TLJ Numbers and Matrix pulls a Jumanji (albeit with a far larger OW and poorer legs)

I finally saw In The Heights tonight and mah lord! In The Heights is the best movie of the year so far. Granted I haven’t seen much but my god what a film!

Shang-Chi is great. For me, it is their strongest since Panther. Ant-Man and the Wasp is third in the 2018-2021 releases of the MCU.